Lancet: The Lancet is heavy!

Since the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia at the end of 2019, a pandemic has formed around the world immediately

In previous studies, some research groups have estimated daily or cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections at specific times and places

The U.

The Serotracker project reports on the extent of seroprevalence surveys and some attributes of those surveys, but it does not make estimates of cumulative infections based on these data;

There are also studies using reported deaths and published estimates of infection fatality rates (IFRs) to estimate cumulative infections in U.

On April 8, 2022, renowned epidemiological modelling expert Chris Murray published an article in The Lancet : Estimating global, regional, and national daily and cumulative infections with SARS-CoV-2 through Nov 14, 2021: a statistical analysis .

In fact, this research methodology has been conceived and developed since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic to fill the gap in providing timely estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection for tracking the pandemic and to inform epidemiological models of outbreak spread

Using data on reported cases, hospital admissions, and reported deaths, primarily from Johns Hopkins University and national databases, as well as seroprevalence surveys identified through previous reviews, SeroTracker, and government organizations, the researchers produced a comprehensive set of Global and site-specific estimates of daily and cumulative infections with SARS-CoV-2

The study corrected for known biases in these data, such as reporting lags

The researchers then built an empirical database including infection detection rates (IDRs), infection hospitalization rates (IHRs), and infection mortality rates (IFRs)

This study is the first comprehensive analysis to date of daily and cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections globally

From the onset of the pandemic to November 14, 2021, the total number of people infected and reinfected with SARS-CoV-2 is estimated at 3.

The statistical findings of this study highlight the ongoing and profound impact of COVID-19

Statistical methods for estimating SARS-CoV-2 infection by investigators can be routinely applied and provide rapid estimates that are critical to research, scientific and policy efforts to prepare for, respond to, and contain pandemic outbreaks in the months and years ahead.

Original source:

Thomas J Bollyky, Erin N Hulland, Ryan M Barber, et al.