Kong Pingtao: the driving force of China's feed industry growth is changing

Introduction: the potential growth rate of China's economy will decline after 30 years of high growth of about 10% How to explore and make good use of new growth points involves the understanding of the characteristics of the new growth stage Generally speaking, in the past, it was mainly a shop, but in the future, it will be a step up In this situation, where is the potential growth point of our feed industry? How to go up the steps? It's a great honor to invite Mr Kong Pingtao, general manager of Beijing Boya Hexun agricultural and animal husbandry technology Co., Ltd., Deputy Secretary General of China Society of animal husbandry and veterinary medicine, to make a theme report at the conference: "looking at the development of feed industry from the perspective of China's population and economic change" The following content is compiled by Boya Hexun according to Mr Kong Pingtao's on-site speech, without my confirmation 】Mr Kong Pingtao introduced the background of thinking about the development of feed industry in the form of five questions at the beginning: the growth rate of China's GDP in 2012 is 7.8%, will the growth rate of China's GDP in the next 10 years be lower than 8% become the new normal? With the rising cost of labor, has the demographic dividend disappeared? Will the consumption of livestock products decrease with the aging of China's population? What should be the annual increase of livestock products in China in the future? The demand for feed protein depends on the international market Can the rapid development of China's feed industry be sustained? What will drive the development of feed market in the future? From 2002 to 2005, the meat production began to deviate from the per capita GDP growth The era of shortage has passed, and the supply and demand of livestock products are flexible Zav from the perspective of urban and rural consumption level, the consumption of rural livestock products is less than half of urban consumption, and this difference will continue in the next 10 years, that is, urban and rural structural dividend Zav combines population data and urbanization data to build a model Boa Hexun estimates that in 2020, the total meat output will be 88.2 million tons It increased by 8.63 million tons compared with 2011, with an average compound growth rate of 1.13% Zav industrial feed production growth space -- market scale dividend's pulling effect weakens Zav Before 2006, China's industrial feed enjoyed more than 100 million tons of scale dividend every year Since 2006, with the slow growth of breeding volume, the improvement of scale level, the expansion of group feed enterprises and other factors, the penetration rate of industrial feed market has increased rapidly, and the future production scale commercial dividend is gradually disappearing From the perspective of industrial development cycle, feed industry can still enjoy the high-speed growth brought by scale dividend in the next 7 or 8 years When the market penetration is saturated, it will cross the rapid growth period and enter the mature period around 2018 Zav there are a lot of business opportunities in the development of animal husbandry and feed industry In the process of industrial development, the imbalance of regional development in different provinces of China will bring about the transformation of feed market space Under the condition of tight balance of raw materials, there are different business opportunities for additive market and feed market due to the characteristics of supply and demand of raw materials in different regions For example, from June 2011 to October 2012, the consumption of wheat in feed reached 37 million tons, which is estimated conservatively The cost is about 1.5 billion yuan, which drives the sales of 400 million yuan enzyme preparation and consumes more amino acids Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Jiangsu and other places are the provinces with more wheat replacing corn ZAv