Joint research by Kan Haidong's research group reveals the impact of cold wave on death risk and disease burden of Chinese residents

(Provided by: Lei Jian)

Recently, Prof.

Since this century, the adverse effects of global climate change have become increasingly apparent

In order to solve this scientific problem, based on the death cause monitoring system of 272 cities in China (see Figure 1 for geographic distribution) and the National Meteorological Data Sharing Platform, this study selected 272 cities in the cold season (November to March) of 2013-2015.

Figure 1 Distribution of death cause monitoring sites in 272 cities in my country from 2013 to 2015

In this study, a time-series analysis method was used to define 12 cold waves (see Table 1) according to the daily average temperature (the annual average daily temperature distribution in each city from 2013 to 2015) and duration

The results of the time-lag model showed that, overall, the effect of cold wave on increasing residents' non-accidental total mortality risk appeared at a lag of 3-4 days, peaked at 10-15 days, and disappeared after 28 days (Fig.

Figure 2 Time lag pattern of the impact of different definitions of cold waves on non-accidental total deaths

This study explored the impact of different definitions of cold waves on the risk of non-accidental total cardiopulmonary disease mortality among Chinese residents, and assessed the corresponding disease burden

Figure 3 Effects of different definitions of cold wave on the risk of non-accidental total death and death from cardiopulmonary disease

Results of stratified analysis by sex and age showed that the effect of cold wave on the risk of non-accidental total mortality was stronger in women, but the difference was not statistically significant

Figure 4 The effect of cold wave on the non-accidental total mortality risk of different gender, age and climate zones

Through a large-scale, long-term, multi-center epidemiological study, this study explored the time-lag pattern of the impact of cold waves on the risk of non-accidental total deaths and cardiopulmonary disease deaths among Chinese residents, identified some sensitive groups, and evaluated the effects of cold waves on Chinese residents.

Lei Jian, Ph.