Jinniu Futures: feed material breakdown in April

Introduction: on Wednesday, CBOT's main monthly soybean contracts opened slightly higher due to the influence of 1 cent increase in overnight electronic trading, with the first half of the market surging, the main may contract refreshing the high of this week, the second half of the market encountered strong resistance at 6271 / 2 cents, and the price fell to the intraday high, and finally each contract closed 4-5 cents higher Brazil's latest celeres report further lowered Brazil's soybean production forecast to 53.7 million tons from 56.4 million tons at the beginning of March, due to the worse than expected soybean yield in southern Brazil The total trading volume of CBOT soybean futures in the whole day is about 54000; the net buying volume of the fund is about 1500, and it is estimated that the net excess orders are 17000 at present Spot market: short covering CBOT soybeans ended 2.5-7 cents higher on April 5 Today, the market was adjusted continuously, but most of them rose The spot market of soybean meal was generally stable, and some of them fell The details are as follows: Jiangsu and the southern region quoted 2700-2830 yuan / ton, Zhangjiagang region dropped 60 yuan / ton to 2740 yuan / ton, Guangdong region almost no deal; Shandong region 2600-2700 yuan / ton, the pressure of the local oil factory is large; Henan region 2700-2800 yuan / ton, Zhoukou region 2750 yuan / ton to 40 yuan / ton, individual oil factory inventory pressure is large, bargaining sales In Beijing Tianjin Hebei region, the price is 2600-2700 yuan / ton, which is bad and stable in general; in northeast region, it is 2500-2600 yuan / ton, in Heilongjiang region, it is down 20-50 yuan / ton, and the squeezing profit of oil plants is down At present, there are great differences between domestic regions and manufacturers Investment report: domestic soybean meal will not fluctuate significantly in April When entering April, soybean meal prices across the country are not rising or falling, basically maintaining a relatively stable situation From the perspective of price trend distribution, the price of soybean meal in Northeast and North China is 2560-2650 yuan / ton, with the lowest price up to now; the price of soybean meal in Shandong is 2650-2720 yuan / ton, the price of soybean meal in East China is 2760-2800 yuan / ton, and the price of soybean meal in South China is 2820-2880 yuan / ton Judging from the transaction situation in different places, both the buyer and the seller are not active in entering the market, and the transaction is relatively light In general, the soybean meal industry in April is more sensitive Because the imported soybean in this month is in the transition of the old and the new, the supply and demand situation of the soybean market is more complex, so it is difficult to grasp However, from the latest observation, the situation has improved, and the possibility of severe turmoil of soybean meal in this month has been reduced 1 The high cost of imported soybeans supports the high price of soybean meal According to the tracking, the cost of imported soybeans to Hong Kong since March 1 has mostly exceeded 3000 yuan / ton, with a maximum of 3200 yuan / ton The high cost of soybeans will provide strong support for soybean meal At present, the domestic soybean meal demand is relatively weak, and the squeezing profit of oil plants is shrinking day by day The squeezing of imported soybean in the northern production area has been a negative profit, even if the sales of oil plants are difficult, it is impossible to reduce the sales price In addition, the number of imported soybeans to Hong Kong in March and April should be lower than the average level, which will further consolidate the sales confidence of oil plants It is expected that in April, oil plants will support the stabilization of soybean meal prices at a high level 2 Domestic soybean meal demand turns strong Due to the scale of livestock and poultry in various farms during the Spring Festival, the scale of domestic breeding turns to a low level within one to two months after the festival In addition, people are afraid of avian influenza, and the supplement of poultry and poultry breeding is seriously affected The recovery of the model is relatively slow, which makes the soybean meal consumption peak season come and then drag From the perspective of the feeding situation of livestock and poultry in different regions, by the middle of April, the scale will gradually form, the growth of breeding demand will obviously turn strong, and the demand of feed industry for soybean meal will also be expected to peak In addition, due to the uncertainty of the market in the early stage, the soybean meal inventory of each feed factory is also generally reduced to the lowest level, and it is expected to arrive at a new round of storage period by the end of April Therefore, the soybean meal sales of all oil factories will go out of the weak situation completely, which is conducive to the stability of soybean meal 3 The supply of soybeans is sufficient, and the listing of soybeans in South America will gradually appear Previously, many domestic and foreign analysis institutions predicted that the supply of imported soybeans in China would be cut off in April due to the new and old alternation between American soybeans and South American soybeans However, according to the latest information, the arrival of domestic soybean in March reached 1.67 million tons, slightly higher than expected In April, the proportion of American soybeans from South China will increase significantly It is preliminarily estimated that there will be at least 10 ships of American soybeans Because China has been buying American soybeans continuously in recent period, and the shipment volume of American soybeans remains at a high level, it is estimated that the arrival volume of American soybeans in April will exceed 1.2 million tons, which will bring the total arrival volume of the whole April to 1.8-2 million tons, significantly higher than Previous forecasts As of the end of March, there are nearly 1.3 million tons of imported beans in China, which means that the total supply of imported beans in April is about 3 million tons Therefore, it is not difficult to see that the supply of domestic imported soybeans in April will not be tight But in May, with the large number of South American soybeans listed, China's port will usher in the peak of imported soybeans, the supply can keep up, and the domestic market may also face the impact, which will severely limit the space for domestic soybean and soybean meal prices to rise IV in the early stage, the feed factory was cautious in purchasing Due to the high price rise of domestic soybean meal and the weak rise, the feed factory tried to minimize the inventory in order to reduce the risk and reduce the purchase of soybean meal With the arrival of April, domestic soybean meal demand will enter a seasonal peak, and feed factories need to increase the number of purchases in time However, from the current point of view, the latest report of the U.S Department of agriculture in 2005 showed that the soybean planting area was 73.91 million mu, and the soybean inventory was 1.381 billion bushels (as of March 1), all of which were within the market forecast range The positive impact was insufficient, and the external market had already experienced the phenomenon of rising and falling In May, a large number of imported soybeans from South America will arrive at the port one after another, and the future market pressure will increase significantly, and the domestic market may also be subject to periodic reduction Therefore, in April, the purchase of soybean meal from feed factories will remain cautious, and the sales growth of soybean meal from oil factories will be limited, which is not conducive to the rise of soybean meal 5 The premature rapeseed meal will also be supplemented properly According to the observation, in May, the summer rapeseed in the southern production areas can be listed, and the premature rapeseed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is expected to start sickle in April Although the summer rapeseed production in China can be reduced to 11 million tons from 13 million tons due to the bad weather in the production area, the pressure on the scale of rapeseed listing can not be ignored Some small and medium-sized oil plants distributed in the production areas may start up in advance to launch new rapeseed meal in time In this way, premature rapeseed meal in some areas in the South may complete beneficial supplement to soybean meal in advance, thus forming pressure on the soybean meal market to a certain extent, so that the price of soybean meal will not rise due to tight supply     From the above analysis, it can be seen that in April, on the one hand, the high cost of imported soybeans and the booming market demand will support the high price of soybean meal On the other hand, the supply of soybeans in this month will not be tight, and it may also face the pressure of a large number of South American soybeans going on the market and arriving at the market The purchasing of feeders is also cautious In addition, the supplement effect of premature rapeseed meal also limits the rise of soybean meal Space, the domestic soybean meal market in this month is more or less constrained by each other, and the fluctuation range will not be too large.