It's completely on fire! Two pigs "big noise" big business, pig futures were suffered

Pig futures listed a shot at popularity, the big business on the stage of two simulated pigs brush screen.
January 7, Dalian Commodity Exchange issued the "Notice on the benchmark price of pig futures contracts", according to the notice, pig futures contracts listed benchmark prices as follows: LH2109 contract 30680 yuan / ton, LH2111 contract 29680 yuan / ton, LH2201 contract 28680 yuan / ton.
industry insiders said that the market for LH2109 contract price expectations range is 20,000 yuan / ton - 28,000 yuan / ton, neutral expectations are 25,000 yuan / ton, the market is now the pig listing benchmark price is high.
this consistent industry view, leading to the first day of listing of pig futures encountered "open door black."
the end of the year, the main pig futures contract once fell, is still down more than 11%.
futures companies forecast pig futures pattern is empty from the view of the level of research shows that poor sales of frozen meat brought about the recent rise in pig prices.
, on the other hand, is still a month before the Spring Festival, consumer demand is abundant, so at the spot level, pig prices have support.
but forecast that after 2021, with the smooth sale of frozen meat, fresh meat demand may be further squeezed; The release of pig production capacity will also lead to a pattern of falling prices.
this pattern of supply and demand, this forward price is clearly set high.
Guangfa Futures believes that the bottom of the year price is expected to be 23-25 yuan / kg.
According to the rhythm of the column, the expected low price appears in September-October, corresponding to LH2109 and LH2111 prices can refer to the 23000-25000 yuan / ton range, LH2201 has a demand boost, the price can refer to the 25,000-27,000 yuan / ton range.
from the contract listing price given by the big merchants, LH2109 contract 30680 yuan / ton, according to the forecast given by Guangfa Futures, or there is still 5000 yuan / ton - 7000 yuan / ton of falling space.
China Guoxin Futures also said that as pig production capacity continues to recover, pig prices will be in the down channel in 2021 as a whole, september pig prices may be well below the current market price.
Junan futures said that pig futures listed on the first day, LH2109 contract will become the main contract.
the medium term, the LH2109 contract price core volatility range is 24-30 yuan / kg, pig prices fall high certainty, the market level is huge.
30 yuan / kg above the high short mainly, pig prices still exist seasonal changes.
the first domestic live futures varieties, however, although the pattern is short, but the listing of pig futures for the overall futures market play an important role.
Tue Note: Brush screen "pig" close-up financial sector learned that pig breeds from spot forward trading pilot to futures projects, from research to approval of the listing, experienced more than ten years, the length of the time span, in China's futures history is also rare.
And in recent years, in order to speed up the listing of pig futures varieties, Fang Xinghai on many occasions stressed the need to speed up the internationalization of mature varieties, enhance the international pricing influence of the futures market, and every time must mention pig futures.
, the domestic finally ushered in this live futures varieties, is also a major breakthrough in the futures market.
Fang Xinghai said that pig is China's largest agricultural and sideline products, but also China's first live futures varieties, is the futures market and pig industry concerned about and long-awaited events.
Pig futures listing will further fill the gap in China's livestock futures varieties, with corn, soybean meal and other futures options, the formation of a complete industrial chain from planting, processing to breeding price risk management tool system, can serve the industrial scale of trillions of yuan, conducive to promoting the healthy development of animal husbandry industry.
And, with the gradual development of pig futures price discovery and hedging function, breeding enterprises can use futures prices to arrange production plans, and use futures markets to hedge spot risks, and then promote the pig industry to achieve "stable price", "guarantee supply", reduce the "pig cycle" amplitude, promote the steady and orderly development of the industry.
"the stone of the mountain" of pig futures, although the breed in the short-term market price fluctuations, but in the long run, pig futures for a country's pig cycle and industrial chain have far-reaching significance.
the United States, for example, as early as the 1960s, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange introduced live cattle futures breeds against tradition, and later live pig futures contracts.
1969, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange developed into the world's largest meat and livestock futures trading center.
also because of the earlier introduction of pig futures, the United States has become the world's most important pork production and trade power.
And the introduction of this futures variety, directly meet the industry at that time large-scale, standardized development needs, pig enterprises to participate in the futures market, hedge the pig price fluctuations brought about by the market risk, exacerbated market integration, lengthened the pig cycle.
data show that at present, the top ten pig production enterprises in the United States accounted for more than 40% of the production capacity; The top five pig slaughtering and processing enterprises have a market share of more than 70%.
the U.S. pig cycle from the previous four years or so round, stretched to 7-8 round, the annual volatility of pig prices has also greatly reduced.
, however, as U.S. consumer spending habits changed, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange changed live pig futures to standard lean pig futures and physical delivery to cash settlement.
view, as a large pork consumer, China's pig futures may also appear three positive changes, one is, the pig industry to scale up development; Second, the degree of standardization of the pig industry is expected to further improve; Third, the average age of the pig cycle is extended.
Leading enterprises to state specifically, pig futures implementation, is expected to be through hedging can lock in some profits in advance, the trough period is not so passive, peak earnings slightly weakened, ironing this full impact cycle.
leading enterprises expressed their willingness to actively participate, pig futures can be introduced in advance to lock in performance, weakening the cycle properties of pork stocks.
Mahara shares said that the early stage for pig futures listing made some preparations, including the application for delivery of the library, internal team system construction of these two aspects.
futures listed, will see what combination of this variety and the company's management can be combined, can be combined with the company's operation to use the tool.
Wen's shares also said that pig futures listed, will be based on the situation of in-depth research, but the focus of work is still on industry, according to the futures market conditions to further consider.
Some people in the industry also mentioned that if the relevant listed companies have done hedging, for its bank credit, enterprise ratings and other aspects are better, after all, the banking industry is already afraid of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries, if enterprises in advance risk hedging, banks and other financial institutions in the industrial financial support will be relatively more inclined.