It's a warning that the price of pig feed has skyrocketed

Introduction: China's imports will rise With the development of futures industry, the financial attribute of bulk commodity has been strengthened, and its essence is the international pricing power struggle Recently, the price of pig feed soybean meal has soared, far higher than the price of food and flour, the staple food on people's table, which sounds absurd, but it is now becoming a reality The price of early indica rice is only 2800 yuan per ton, and that of wheat is 2500 yuan per ton However, the price of soybean meal on the spot market has reached 4500 yuan per ton, which should be paid close attention to As protein feed, soybean meal is the staple food of livestock and poultry, which is not easy to be replaced As soon as the feed price rose, the monitoring data from Nanjing business department showed that the prices of pork, vegetables and eggs in the market were all rising recently The price of pork hind legs in Nanjing market is nearly 24 yuan / kg, and the price of rib meat and streaky pork is about 28 yuan / kg As colleges and universities open one after another, the market demand increases, and market participants expect that the price of pork will change At the same time, the price of chicken and egg is rising rapidly The price of egg breaks through 10.5 yuan / kg again, up 6.5% month on month, and the market of edible oil is rising again With the Mid Autumn Festival approaching, the price of basic agricultural products will rise in turn, which may lead to the "dragon rise" of the price of the whole agricultural products sector, which is not a small pressure on CPI, which just fell to a low level The main soybean production area of China is in Heilongjiang Province, but in recent years, the domestic soybean is shrinking day by day The main reason is that the soybean does not count as the main grain, unlike corn, rice and wheat, enjoying the national protective collection and storage policy, and the price is obviously lower than that of corn and rice In recent years, the soybean planting area in Heilongjiang Province has been continuously reduced, from 50 million mu to 36 million mu last year, with a reduction rate of nearly 30% Brazil and Argentina in South America have become the main importers of soybean in China In the past few years, China has imported about 30 million tons of soybean from these two countries every year, while the annual output of domestic soybean is only 12 million tons Since last year, bad weather in the southern hemisphere has sharply reduced soybean production This year, soybeans are sourced from the United States in the northern hemisphere In June this year, the main soybean producing areas in the United States suffered the worst drought in half a century In July and August, the U.S Department of agriculture lowered its soybean production forecast for two consecutive months, and the soybean price soared, which directly affected the domestic soybean meal price If China imports anything, it will go up With the development of futures industry, the financial attribute of bulk commodity has been strengthened, and its essence is the international pricing power struggle At present, the economic recovery in Europe and the United States is in twists and turns, the downward pressure on the domestic economy is increasing, the real economy is difficult, and the insufficient operating rate keeps the prices of large industrial raw materials such as steel, copper and coal falling The anti inflation ability of agricultural products is reflected at this time As an important futures trading variety, soybean meal's financial attributes make its price fluctuations have a wide range of impact During the economic downturn, global risk aversion funds have entered into the market in a large scale, raising the prices of agricultural products Soros, Rogers and other big investors are optimistic about the anti inflation function of agricultural products, which is also the main reason for the soybean meal price to reach a new record Speculative capital affects the spot market by influencing the futures price, and then transmits to the downstream industry chain Every link of the food supply chain is closely linked From the historical experience, there is a significant correlation between the price of beans and CPI Take 2007-2008 as an example At that time, the reduction of domestic soybean production led to the continuous increase of soybean prices, which led to the rise of pork prices The year-on-year increase of CPI also rose to a high of 8.7% in February 2008 At present, China's soybean dependence on foreign countries has exceeded 80% While the traditional domestic soybean industry has shrunk, the imported soybean and foreign investment have rapidly controlled the domestic market, and the loss of the discourse power of domestic enterprises makes food security face structural challenges As an important oil-bearing crop, soybean oil can directly affect the price through the edible oil market The soaring soybean meal will drive the price of relevant meat and poultry up Feed will affect the price of meat and poultry and transmit it to the consumer price of residents, which will have an overall impact on the domestic price Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to the strange phenomenon that the price of pig feed is higher than the price of staple food on the table Chinese people's food structure and eating habits determine that China is an important soybean consumer According to last year's data of imported soybean and vegetable oil, China needs to use 600 million to 700 million mu of overseas sown area to maintain the current situation of imported soybean demand Soybean production capacity is closely related to the edible oil and feed industry, which has caused the structural short board of domestic food security The 12th Five Year Plan for the planting industry proposes to strive to achieve "one guarantee", that is, to ensure the basic self-sufficiency of grain, and the self-sufficiency rate of rice, wheat and corn crops will reach 100% Strive to stabilize the self-sufficiency rate of edible vegetable oil at 40%, and put forward specific targets for rape and peanut planting areas, but lack of soybeans It is very urgent to adjust the policy in time, improve the self-sufficiency rate of soybean and increase the discourse power of price Now, the national development and Reform Commission requires the edible oil producers to report the ex factory price regularly In the short term, from the perspective of price control measures, the continuous rise of soybean meal price can only be digested by government subsidies and the cost reduction and control of large-scale livestock and poultry producers, but the effect is not ideal The results of temporary price control are not obvious In the short term, inflation will be restrained and the risk of price rise will be frozen In the long term, it is necessary to guide and regulate supply and demand through policies and market hands The policy focus should be on seeking the root and source, and on expanding supply, so as to fundamentally solve the problem Otherwise, once the price control is loosened, the retaliatory rebound caused by distortion will aggravate the risk of long-term and comprehensive inflation.