It is of great significance for grain prices to fall steadily

Introduction: in 2004, price was a hot spot in China, which attracted people's attention When CPI rose to 4.4% in May this year, will the price index rise? This issue has become the focus of the market The information provided by the urban and rural commodity price change team of the National Bureau of statistics in the middle of June shows that the fluctuation of commodity prices tends to be stable in general, especially the grain price Therefore, it is predicted that China's CPI and other price indexes are expected to fall gradually after three months Although the price of meat and poultry, water and civil honeycomb coal continued to rise in the middle of June, but the service price was basically stable and the price of grain and oil fell steadily If calculated by the weight of these commodities in the CPI, the overall price level of commodities shows a stable and declining trend Among them, grain prices are falling steadily, which is particularly noteworthy In the middle of June, the prices of major grain in cities were basically stable, and the prices of major grain varieties in rural areas continued to fall steadily If the stable and declining trend of grain prices in urban and rural areas can be maintained, it will help to reduce the growth rate of CPI Why do you say that? Because, according to the National Bureau of statistics, CPI rose 3.3% year on year from January to May Among them, due to the grain production reduction of 5.8% last year, the price of grain has increased a lot since October last year, which has led to a 25.6% year-on-year increase in the price of grain from January to May this year, and a 15.6% increase in the price of meat and poultry and their products, resulting in an 8.6% increase in the price of food The impact of rising food prices on CPI is very prominent Among the 3.3% year-on-year increase in CPI from January to may, the rise in food prices affected CPI by 2.88 percentage points, accounting for 87% If the factor of rising food price is deducted, the core CPI has increased by nearly 0.6% Therefore, if the grain price tends to be stable and falls in a steady way, it will help to curb the continued rise of food prices, and thus further alleviate the pressure of CPI to continue to rise First, the government has increased its support for agriculture under the positive influence of the initial effect of this round of macro-control For example, as of the first ten days of May, the direct grain subsidies allocated by the central and local governments to 12 major grain producing provinces (regions) in China had reached 8 billion yuan Another reason is that the summer harvest is set, and the Ministry of agriculture expects the total output to increase by 2.5 billion kg According to relevant experts, if the current trend of grain price decline in China's stability can be maintained, it will inevitably have a certain inhibition effect on the rise of food prices, and promote the growth rate of food price rise to fall gradually, which will further ease the pressure of CPI rise, and ultimately play a role in stabilizing prices It can be seen that food price stability is crucial, and food price and CPI will lag behind in response.