It is inevitable that grain prices will rise again

Introduction: whether the price rising trend will last or not part 3: whether the price rising trend will last part 3: BBH -- Analysis of the current grain price level of Wang Laibao, price monitoring center of national development and Reform Commission, BBH's basic judgment on the current grain price rise Although the purchase price of raw grain has increased since last year, the market price of finished grain has been relatively calm In the first ten days of October this year, only the price of Guangzhou rich and strong flour rose by 16.67% compared with the end of September, but by the middle of October, the price of flour rose sharply in cities At the end of October, the price of finished grain rose in an all-round way, but the national average increase was not large The average price of Fuqiang flour in 36 large and medium-sized cities was 1.22 yuan, up 4.07% compared with the same period of last year The price of standard flour was 1.04 yuan, up 7% compared with the same period of last year The price of late indica rice was 1.06 yuan, up 7.55% compared with the same period of last year Except for the price of standard flour and late indica rice, the price of other finished grains did not rise much From the monthly average of 36 large and medium-sized cities in October, the price of early indica rice is basically maintained at the average level of 0.98 yuan last year, the price of late indica rice is only 1 cent higher than last year, the price of Japonica rice is basically maintained at the level of 1.18 yuan last year, and the price of rich and strong flour and standard flour is basically the same as last year BBH from the market price trend of finished grain, the current increase in grain prices, with obvious sudden and joint, from the market information we monitor, mainly due to the impact of the rise in the price of edible oil and the consequent blind rush of residents It can be judged that the current tense atmosphere of rising grain prices in the market does not have any trend characteristics and belongs to the scope of irrationality It exaggerates the degree of grain tension and the rising range of grain prices, affects the normal and rational recovery of grain prices in recent two years, and makes the market situation extremely complex, which needs to be taken seriously The original trend of BBH grain price At present, although the price of grain has been exaggerated, it is undeniable that in recent years, the price of grain market has been constantly adjusted and gradually stepped into the road of return The rise in food prices began with early rice In 2000, the price of early rice in South China dropped sharply after it was withdrawn from the protection price In 2001, the price of early rice in South China began to callback In 2002, the price of early rice rose obviously, 17.5% higher than that in 2000 The rapid rise of early rice prices is mainly due to the adjustment of grain planting structure in the main production areas, the liberalization of grain prices in the sales areas, and the supplement and rotation of national grain reserves The prices of other grain varieties have been continuously adjusted and are in a stable and fluctuating situation This year's natural disasters are unexpected Most of the serious disasters are in the main grain producing areas, which have a significant impact on this year's grain production As a result, after the start of wheat purchase this year, the recovery trend of grain price has become very clear From the perspective of grain purchase price of state-owned enterprises, the purchase price of wheat and early indica rice in the main production areas increased by 4.21% and 4.89% respectively in August compared with the same period last year, and increased by 7.4% and 4.69% respectively in October At the same time, the retail price of grain also began to show a rising trend The grain price index in the consumer price calculated by the National Bureau of statistics has been negative since May, mainly due to the price performance of late indica rice in the south It shows that the grain price has gradually transmitted the trend of stop decline, return stability and rise in the purchasing link to the retail link of residents' consumption BBH therefore, even if it is not driven by the prices of other agricultural and sideline products in mid October, the rising trend of food prices has become clear, but the extent and tension will not be so severe In general, the rise in food prices is a kind of recovery As the contradiction between the relative surplus of grain supply in the past few years is more prominent, the government has constantly adjusted the level of purchase protection price In 1998, it was reduced by 6%, in 1999 by 12.7%, and in 2000 by 0.7% The price of grain is close to the cost of production After adjustment in recent years, the average purchase price of grain in the main production areas of China has basically recovered to the level of grain price in 1994 Analysis of the factors affecting the increase of grain price in BBH the rapid recovery of grain price in BBH is mainly caused by the continuous decline of grain output this year, in addition to the above mentioned driven by the prices of other agricultural and sideline products There are two main reasons for the decline of grain output One is that in 2003, the adjustment of agricultural production structure in China continued to increase, reducing the planting area of grain crops At the same time, the western provinces continued to implement the national policy of returning farmland to forest and grass, further reducing the planting area of grain crops Second, natural disasters have a great impact According to the survey of the National Bureau of statistics, the sown area of summer grain in China this year is 6.5% lower than that of the previous year, with a total output of 96.22 million tons, 2.4% lower than that of the previous year According to the preliminary statistical analysis, the sown area of autumn crops in China is 68535 thousand hectares, 3% less than that in 2002, and the total output of autumn crops in China is 315.26 million tons, about 4% less than that in 2002, and 6% less than the average output of autumn crops in the past five years (334.1 million tons) The total sown area of grain crops in the whole year is 99735 thousand ha, 4% less than that in 2002 (103891 thousand HA); the total output of grain in the whole year is 44.03 million tons, 3% less than that in 2002, and 8% less than the average output of grain in the past five years (478.51 million tons) The degree of BBH grain marketization is getting higher and higher, and the regulation of the law of value on grain is the basic reason for grain prices to stop falling and gradually rise in recent two years Since 1998, the implementation of grain circulation system reform, especially the deepening of grain marketization reform measures in recent two years, is an important prerequisite for grain price recovery In addition, in recent two years, natural disasters have occurred frequently in China, which has accelerated the recovery of grain market prices In the future, the trend of grain price in BBH will mainly depend on grain yield, which in turn depends on the planting area and unit yield of grain It is predicted that in the later period of the tenth five year plan, under the natural selection of the market, the grain planting area will remain over 100000 hectares, and the grain output will fluctuate between 450-500 million tons without major natural disasters The price of grain market has entered a stable period, but it will fluctuate above the level of 1994 Without considering the change of cultivated land quality, BBH develops at the most optimistic estimate The annual net reduction of cultivated land in China is maintained at the rate of 30000 hectares, and the cultivated land area will be reduced to 129.77 million hectares by 2005 In the future, it will also be very difficult to maintain the grain planting area above 110000000 hectares Therefore, within the "Tenth Five Year Plan" or even longer period, grain production will be in a state of fluctuation affected by natural disasters and expressed through prices With the improvement of the ability to resist natural disasters, this fluctuation will not be too large The relationship between supply and demand of grain is also mainly affected by natural disasters and expressed through price Grain production has entered a new period of steady development influenced by market competition In the later period of the tenth five year plan, the price of grain will not rise and fall sharply, but the fluctuation will always exist; this kind of price fluctuation is normal and the result of market competition, and it will change synchronously with the global grain price level to a large extent, but the grain price will exceed the average level in 1994 BBh