It is expected that the purchase price of new rape seeds will increase this year

Introduction: the price of vegetable oil in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continued to be strong The price of vegetable oil in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continued to be strong in the late March of wth The market price of domestic rapeseed oil remained strong The average price of secondary rapeseed oil: 5950-6000 yuan / ton in Changzhou, Jiangsu, 6150-6200 yuan / ton in Chengdu, Sichuan, 5950-6000 yuan / ton in Jiujiang, Jiangxi, 6000-6050 yuan / ton in Lu'an, Anhui, and 5950-6000 yuan / ton in Yichang, Hubei The prices in the above regions are basically the same as those in late February Wth secondary rapeseed oil price is strong In addition to the current strong soybean oil market price, the decrease of market supply is also an important factor The demand for rapeseed meal in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions of wth is relatively strong Recently, domestic demand for rapeseed meal in wth has slightly improved, and the price has slightly increased, with an increase of 20-40 yuan / ton In the late March of wth, the average factory quotation of rapeseed meal: 1050-1060 yuan / ton in Changzhou, Jiangsu Province, 1060-1070 yuan / ton in Jiujiang, Jiangxi Province, 1020-1030 yuan / ton in Lu'an, Anhui Province, and 980-1000 yuan / ton in Yichang, Hubei Province Wth rapeseed meal price rise is mainly affected by the following two factors: first of all, the fish products gradually enter into the peak season of production, the fish production of feed enterprises increases, and the demand for rapeseed meal increases At the same time, the domestic new rapeseed has not yet been listed, and the number of rapeseed imports and crush decreased year on year, thus the domestic rapeseed meal supply decreased Wth secondly, the market price of soybean meal, after nearly two months of downturn trend after the Spring Festival, some oil processing enterprises began to stop production and overhaul due to poor squeezing efficiency, which reduced the supply of soybean meal in the market and increased the price, to a certain extent, driving the price of rapeseed meal In the normal year of wth, when the price of wth is high in the international market and it is difficult to import wth, China will import a part of rapeseed to make up the raw material gap of the domestic crushing industry before the new domestic rapeseed is listed in May Due to the decline of the main export of rapeseed in 2002 and the rise of the price of rapeseed in the international market, China began to reduce the number of imported rapeseed since June 2002, which continued to maintain after 2003 In the late March of wth, the CIF quotation of Canadian rapeseed to China remained at a high level of US $360 / T, and the price after tax payment was more than 3600 yuan / T after deducting the quality price difference caused by domestic rapeseed due to the better quality and higher oil content of imported rapeseed, the price of imported rapeseed was still on the high side, and the benefit of crushing imported rapeseed by enterprises was low Therefore, in the first two months of 2003, China's cumulative imports of rapeseed were only 200 tons, compared with 162000 tons in 2002 and 227000 tons in 2001 Although wth's domestic rapeseed meal market shows signs of improvement recently, due to the high price of rapeseed in the international market, it is still unable to meet the demand of domestic rapeseed crushing through import At the same time, the coming of new domestic seeds makes the import unrealistic This determines that the market price of rapeseed meal is unlikely to fall again before the new rapeseed goes on the market Wth's domestic rapeseed production is expected to increase this year The acquisition of new rapeseed produced by wth will start in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in May Due to the increase of planting area, the total output of rapeseed in China is expected to reach 12 million tons this year, an increase of 14% year on year The output of Jiangsu Province is 1.51 million tons, an increase of 23%; that of Anhui Province is 1.76 million tons, an increase of 15%; that of Hubei Province is 1.87 million tons, an increase of 16%; that of Hunan Province is 1.12 million tons, an increase of 19%; and that of Sichuan Province is 1.43 million tons, an increase of 2% Wth is expected to increase the opening price of new rapeseed Although the output of rapeseed in China will increase significantly this year compared with the previous year, the squeezing capacity of oil processing enterprises will also increase accordingly, so the supply of rapeseed will still be tight after the market In this context, it is expected that the purchase price of rapeseed will increase year-on-year The purchase price of new rapeseed plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang will reach 0.90-0.95 yuan / 500g (1800-1900 yuan / ton, after deducting water impurities) at the beginning of scale opening, and will rise rapidly due to the rush purchase of processing plants in the short term It is expected that the highest price will exceed 1.15 yuan / 500g (2300 yuan / ton) The lower the open scale price is, the faster the price will rise Wth's factors contributing to the increase of rapeseed purchase price in the future include the following three aspects in addition to the expansion of crushing capacity: first of all, wth's current oil processing enterprises and traders are optimistic about the market after the listing of new seeds, are preparing funds, and hope to launch a large-scale acquisition after the listing, so this year's situation of rapeseed purchase will be more intense than the year round Wth was followed by high soybean purchase price, which further stimulated the enthusiasm of oil seed processing enterprises to purchase low-cost rapeseed Even in May and June, 1.6-1.7 million tons of South American soybeans/ The monthly import volume arrived in Hong Kong, but due to the impact of the Gulf War on the international shipping costs, the price advantage between South American soybeans and American soybeans is also shrinking, and the arrival cost of South American soybeans will remain at a high level, which will stimulate the enthusiasm of oil processing enterprises to purchase rapeseed, thus promoting the price rise of rapeseed purchase Wth third, farmers' reluctance to sell will gradually increase in oil processing enterprises and traders' rush to buy new seeds In the past two years, the purchase price of rapeseed has been lower in the initial stage and higher in the later stage Therefore, after the new seeds are weighed this year, many farmers will arrange the sales of this year according to the purchase market of last year, and try to postpone the sales period WTH   WTH