It is expected that the domestic soybean meal market will fluctuate in the later period

Introduction: as of March 20, the factory price of soybean meal in domestic oil plants is basically between 1970-2010 yuan / ton However, this kind of balance can only be temporary Due to the instability of various bearish and bullish factors, the domestic market will remain volatile in the later period WBD 1 Uncertainty of license issuance of imported soybeans WBD as the main source of imported soybeans in China in the future is South American soybeans, and Brazil soybeans account for a large proportion of South American soybeans In view of the genetically modified ingredients of Brazil soybeans, the issue of license issuance of Brazil soybeans is the most concerned As early as early as February, China's Ministry of agriculture has accepted the application for import of soybeans, but it has not been issued yet It is reported that China's Ministry of agriculture has issued temporary import licenses for Brazil's genetically modified soybeans and soybean oil on March 19 Even so, people's worries remain unabated Since then, importers need to obtain another set of documents from China's General Administration of quality supervision, inspection and quarantine to unload imported soybeans Because many people feel that China has bought too much soybeans People in the market are worried that the Chinese government may try to reduce the import of soybeans According to traders, it is said that AQSIQ will control the import of soybeans at about 12 million tons, while the actual import volume is likely to exceed 16 million tons or even 17 million tons There is still a big suspense about the issuance of import licenses As April approaches, the first batch of Brazil's imported soybeans will arrive in Hong Kong What about the importer? There may be a large number of dishwashing and resale, which will affect the domestic soybean supply and demand pattern, and make the domestic soybean and its products soybean meal, soybean oil prices fluctuate WBD 2 Import soybean arrival information WBD import soybean arrival quantity will play a decisive role in the future domestic soybean market supply and demand, so it is also the focus of people's most attention Under the current situation of "difficult production" of Brazil's import soybean license, the market keeps making rumors about China's possible purchase of American soybeans, which makes traders increasingly cautious At present, the receiving price of imported soybeans in China's ports is 2600 yuan / ton, while the cost of imported soybeans in South America is less than 2300 yuan/ Tons, for example, the arrival of soybeans in South America will inevitably have an impact on the domestic market According to the shipping schedule of soybeans in South America, even if the import soybean license is issued smoothly, there are only a few ships arriving at the port in the near future It is likely that one ship of soybeans will bring in the price of soybeans in the region as soon as it arrives at a port However, due to its small influence, it will rebound soon, so it will continue in the near future The news of the arrival of imported soybeans in Hong Kong will also cause fluctuations in the domestic soybean and product market WBD 3 The operating rate of oil plants is seriously insufficient Recently, the main reason for the rise or fall of soybean and soybean meal prices in China is related to the change of operating rate of local oil plants Due to the high soybean price, and the continuous drop of soybean meal price, the crushing situation of oil plants has reached the point of loss, so most of the oil plants around the country have shut down or limited production, which makes the soybean meal price stable from the drop, or even rebounded; on the other hand, most of the imported soybeans are monopolized by large coastal oil plants, and small and medium-sized oil plants in the mainland have stopped production due to lack of materials No matter how big or small the oil plants are, the premise of starting is to be profitable The oil plants have been shut down for a long time The local soybean meal supply may be tight and the price may start to rise However, the local oil plants are unable to grasp the arrival progress of imported soybeans and the decline of future market price The start-up of the local oil plants is likely to be incongruous, which will cause the price fluctuation of domestic soybeans and products WBD 4 Uncertainty of rapeseed yield WBD recently, the main rape producing areas in China have been in the rainy weather, which delayed the flowering time of some rape producing areas According to the past practice, at present, some rape varieties in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River have entered the flowering period, but the recent continuous rainfall has delayed the bolting and flowering of rape Jingzhou area in Hubei Province could have been flowering in the middle and late March, but it may be up to 4 at present At the beginning of the month, in addition, there was a continuous drought in Southwest Sichuan, which was very unfavorable to the production of rapeseed If this situation continues to develop, China's rapeseed production will be greatly reduced this year According to the national grain and oil information center, if the weather is good, China's rapeseed production will exceed 1250 this year Ten thousand tons, a significant increase over last year However, according to the forecast of the central meteorological station, the rainy weather in the south of China will continue in the near future, and the weather in the later period is still unknown Therefore, there will be great variables in the estimation of this year's rapeseed production by relevant organizations and people, and each difference in the predicted production in the later period may have an impact on the domestic soybean market WBD v the US Iraq war The war between the United States and Iraq, which is widely concerned by the world, finally broke out on March 20 The war between the United States and Iraq will not only affect the volatility of international oil prices, but also affect the fluctuation of international oil market prices Because of the large scale of the US Iraq war, involving the surrounding countries, not only the living order of people in the Middle East will be broken, but also because the terrorist forces are more arrogant, the war may also affect some countries such as Europe and the United States According to the latest war report, Iraq has also made full preparations for the war It remains to be seen whether the military objectives of the United States, the United Kingdom and other countries such as "quick war and quick decision" can be achieved If the war lasts for a long time, it will seriously affect the production and consumption order of people in some countries, and may also hinder the transportation of international oil and grease, thus disrupting the supply and demand pattern of international oil and grease, and then causing the price fluctuation of domestic soybean market WBD in a word, due to the uncertainty of various factors restricting the market price, the domestic soybean meal price will fluctuate again in the future With the arrival of a large number of South American Soybean in Hong Kong in the middle and late April and the full listing of domestic rapeseed in the later period, the domestic price will fluctuate downward WBd