It is expected that the acquisition time for new season soybeans will be extended

Introduction: according to experts' prediction, affected by the expansion of planting area and good weather factors, the soybean output in China will reach a record 18 million tons this year, of which Heilongjiang, the main soybean producing province, will grow the most significantly This year, the soybean output of Heilongjiang Province is expected to rise from 6 million tons last year to 10.45 million tons, with a total output increase of 45.14% In addition, the U.S soybean production in 2004 / 05 is estimated by the U.S Department of agriculture on Thursday to be 2.87 billion bushels, which is still the second highest in the calendar year With the successive listing of soybeans in two major producing countries in China and the United States, international soybean prices will face heavy pressure If China maintains a normal trade policy and soybean imports are relatively smooth, under the influence of the international market, the domestic soybean price will gradually decline in the fluctuation, which casts a shadow on China's new soybean listing, and the situation of new season soybean purchase will be more severe I the enthusiasm of oil plants to purchase will be frustrated in the first half of this year The price of soybean meal and soybean oil of domestic soybean products will continue to fall from a high level, and the whole soybean crushing industry will be in trouble due to the serious loss So far, the domestic oil plants still remember It is expected that the new season soybean will go on the market With the national macro-control measures still unchanged, the demand for soybean meal and soybean oil in the domestic market will still fall back rationally, and the soybean market price will continue to face cooling In addition, although the bird flu has disappeared in China, the situation of prevention and control in China's surrounding countries is still very serious, and some United Nations officials say that due to the technical conditions of prevention and control measures, it is impossible to completely eradicate the bird flu epidemic Since this autumn, there is still the possibility of a recurrence of avian influenza in China, and the domestic aquaculture industry that has just recovered at that time may suffer heavy losses again, which directly leads to a significant reduction in the demand for soybean meal in the domestic aquaculture industry The sale of downstream products is blocked and the price drops sharply, which will make the soybean marketing situation of oil plants continue to be trapped Not only the purchase and processing volume of oil plants in the northeast of the main production area will be reduced, but also the number of soybean purchased by oil companies from within the customs will be sharply reduced With the large number of new soybean products listed on the market, even the problem of "difficult to sell soybean" may appear in the northeast II Shortage of assets acquired by oil plants According to reports, Premier Wen Jiabao pointed out when talking about the national macro-control that at present, the macro-control is still in a critical stage, the achievements are preliminary and phased, the foundation is not yet consolidated, and the relevant measures still need to be implemented in depth, and the leaders at all levels must fully understand the arduousness and complexity of the macro-control, and persevere in all the work It can be seen that the determination of national macro-control is very strong In the second half of the year, the banking sector will continue to reduce the scale of credit, and the difficulty of oil companies' financing will be further increased Considering the sustainability of macro-control measures and the possibility of increasing interest rate, the cost of our oil plants to obtain funds in the next year may be increased, thus slowing down the pace of soybean procurement 3 The strategy of acquiring manufacturers will change Due to the "sequelae" from the serious loss of oil crushing at the beginning of this year and the constraints of the state's macro-control, it is estimated that the crazy buying of domestic soybeans by domestic oil companies last year will not be repeated this year Based on the lessons learned in the early days of the listing of new beans last year, it is likely that this year's purchasing activities of oil companies will adopt a sound strategy Moreover, due to the involvement of more American funds, the trend of CBOT soybean will be more complex, and large oil plants in coastal areas will stop to watch more people, especially the purchasing attitude of Heilongjiang soybean will be more cautious In addition, the purchasing enthusiasm of other oil companies will also be seriously frustrated It is expected that the progress of soybean purchasing in Northeast China will be greatly affected Fourth, farmers are reluctant to sell From the above analysis, it can be seen that the sales of downstream products of soybeans are not smooth, the loss of oil plants is large, and the purchase of soybeans will progress slowly This year, the opening balance price is likely to fall significantly As for soybean farmers in the production area, in previous years, the purchase price of soybeans has been low, and later the trend of soybeans is more and more high, and soybeans are "more and more expensive", according to experience, it is estimated that farmers will adopt the behavior of reluctant to sell It is worth noting that this year, the state has also increased its support for soybean planting, not only reducing the relevant agricultural taxes and fees, but also increasing the amount of agricultural subsidies, which has significantly reduced the cost of soybean farming, provided ample funds, and encouraged farmers' reluctance to sell As we all know, railway transportation in Northeast China has always been the bottleneck of soybean transportation Every year, when a large number of northeast soybeans are listed on the market, they often encounter the peak of transportation of materials such as coal and steel, and make way for "spring transportation" during the Spring Festival The soybean export transportation is repeatedly blocked, and the stations and freight yards are piled up with soybeans The purchasers continue to delay the purchase of soybeans due to the poor circulation Due to the role of macro-control, this year's new soybean production may also "make way" for the transportation of coal, crude oil and other important materials It is expected that its export transportation will still be greatly hindered, and the time of soybean acquisition will be extended indefinitely To sum up, due to the severe situation of the oil plant, the shortage of purchase funds and large losses, the purchase progress of new season soybean will be slowed down obviously, and it is impossible to "rush to buy" in previous years However, the farmers' reluctance to sell and the serious obstruction of the export transportation of Northeast soybean will further prolong the purchase time of domestic soybean.