It is expected that corn prices in China will rise in the next year

Introduction: according to the analysis of the information center of the Ministry of agriculture, China's corn demand will continue to grow this year, inventory will continue to decline, there may be a tight supply, and corn prices may rise in the future This year, the planting area of the three northeastern provinces, the main corn producing area, was generally reduced Due to the implementation of the "soybean revitalization plan" in Heilongjiang Province, the enthusiasm of soybean producers has been aroused Part of the corn area has been replaced by soybean In addition, the policy of adjusting the purchase and protection price of corn in Heilongjiang Province has affected the confidence of farmers in planting corn The planting area of corn in Heilongjiang Province is about 3 million mu less than that in the previous year, a decrease of about 9% The corn planting area of Jilin Province is about 30 million mu, which is more than 10% less than that of last year The substitution of cash crops to corn is stronger in Liaoning Province, and corn is expected to decline In North China, another major corn producing area, the corn planting area is relatively stable, of which the planting area of Shandong Province is 37 million mu, basically the same as the previous year Therefore, from the overall point of view, corn planting area is flat and slightly decreased Corn demand is growing rigidly and inventory will continue to decline In recent years, due to the rapid development of animal husbandry, the consumption of corn feed has increased year by year In order to digest the overstocked inventory, more efforts have been made in industrial transformation and industrial consumption has increased steadily Considering the factors of rations, seeds, losses and exports, it is estimated that the total consumption of corn in 2001 / 02 will be 127 million tons (including 5 million tons of exports), and that in 2002 / 03 will be 127 million tons (excluding exports) The domestic consumption of corn will rise Because the gap between consumption and supply is mainly solved by using inventory, the total inventory of corn in China has been declining since 1999 It is expected that the total inventory of corn in China will be reduced to about 36 million tons before the new corn goes on the market this year, and further reduced to 24 million tons by the end of 2002 / 03 At that time, the supply of corn will be tight Corn prices are likely to rise in the future due to changes in inventories From the second half of last year to now, the market price of corn is in a low state But in the long run, the factors that affect the price rise of corn will weaken year by year, and the factors that lead to the price rise of corn will dominate Therefore, corn prices will rise moderately in the near future, and may rise substantially in the long run One of the reasons is that the selling of aged grain will gradually decrease; the other is that the decrease of inventory and other factors will make the domestic supply tense; the third is that the enterprises will increase the purchase and expand the reserves with the shortage of grain sources; the fourth is that the price of imported corn may also rise After China's accession to the WTO, China has cancelled the export subsidies for agricultural products in accordance with its commitments At the same time, China has also introduced some new policies to continue to encourage exports In addition, with the need of export enterprises to stabilize market share, it is estimated that China's corn exports will still reach or exceed 4 million tons this year This year, the import of corn is about 1.5 million tons, which is much lower than the import quota The international trade of corn is mainly export This is also one of the factors predicting tight corn supply and rising prices in the domestic market (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: