It is difficult for domestic corn prices to rise in the short term

Introduction: At present, all corn producing areas in China are in the harvest period The quantity of corn available in the market has increased substantially, and the price of corn in China is also affected by it The average price of corn in Jilin area in the North has dropped to 1040-1050 yuan / ton, but the drop in price has not won the interest of purchasers The trading situation in Jilin market has gradually become "cold" Xinghua No.2 in southern Jiangsu Province The price of equivalent corn is 1080 yuan / ton, which is 5.26% lower than that of 1140 yuan / ton in the earlier stage The current price of third-class corn in Jiangxi area is 1055 yuan / ton, which is 0.55% lower than that of the earlier stage The price of second-class corn in Fuzhou area is also 5.47% lower than that of 1280 yuan / ton in the earlier stage, which is 1210 yuan / ton, which is 5.47% lower than that of the earlier stage The flat price of Dalian and Qinhuangdao in port area is also lower than that of the earlier stage, which is 1140 yuan / ton, respectively 1120 yuan / ton, other regions have different degrees of decline The second-class corn prices in Inner Mongolia, Tianjin and Shanxi are 1070 yuan / ton, 890 yuan / ton and 1190 yuan / ton, respectively Comprehensive analysis of the main factors for the continuous decline of corn prices should be carried out from the following points: 1 The increase of production, the increase of market supply, and the impact on prices This year, China's corn planting area is 23.45 million hectares, an increase of 390000 hectares compared with last year However, affected by the drought during spring sowing and corn seedling stage in Northeast China, the average per unit yield of corn in China is still lower than that of the whole year, only 4702 kg / ha It is estimated that the national corn output will be 11.23 million tons, an increase of 4.23 million tons over the previous year The corn output in Northeast China is expected to be 33.67 million tons, an increase of 4.03 million tons, or 14% over the previous year Among them, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia and other places are expected to produce 626, 746, 680 and 680 Jin per unit area respectively, with year-on-year growth of 7%, 24%, 32% and 5% respectively The output of Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning and Inner Mongolia is expected to be 9.92 million tons, 10.39 million tons, 6.12 million tons and 7.24 million tons respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 25%, 5%, 11% and 15% respectively Other regions, such as Shandong Province, produced 14.64 million tons of corn, the same as the previous year; Hebei Province, 11.25 million tons, an increase of 13% The expectation of output increase is higher than that of the previous period The listing of corn in North China and Huanghuai has strongly depressed the market price The new corn in Northeast China will also be listed soon It can be imagined that the domestic corn price will rise again and fall due to the continuous growth of market supply 2 With China's entry into WTO, the market pressure is increasing and the price shock is aggravating With the successful conclusion of the negotiation of China's accession to the WTO, the aspiration of China's accession to the WTO will come true for a long time Although the accession to the WTO has an important and far-reaching impact on the development of China's economy, China's agriculture will also face unprecedented opportunities and challenges As a result of China's commitment in the agreement of accession to the WTO to list corn as a commodity under tariff management, China's quota of imported corn in 2002 will be After China's accession to the WTO, on the one hand, China's current export subsidy policy for corn will be cancelled, which will keep the price of exported corn at a high level, and large-scale export is no longer possible On the other hand, China's export volume in 2001 is expected to be 10 million tons If China's corn can't be exported in 2002, plus 5 million tons of imported corn, then China will The net supply of corn market will increase by 15 million tons, which is equivalent to 15% of China's corn output Such a huge net increase in value will have a strong impact on the domestic corn price, which is difficult to maintain the current level 3 The purchase price has been constantly lowered, the market has seen strong air, and the price has fallen again Affected by the listing of new corn, the price in Central China keeps falling At present, the purchase price is lowered again The average purchase price of new corn in Northern Henan is 0.5-0.57 yuan / Jin, and the lowest price is 0.46-0.48 yuan / Jin, which is 0.02-0.03 yuan / Jin lower than that in the initial stage of weighing; the purchase price in central Henan is 0.46-0.48 yuan / Jin, which is 0.03-0.05 yuan / Jin lower than that in the earlier stage; the average purchase price of new corn in northern Shandong is 0.5-0.57 yuan / Jin The purchase price of new corn in the southern region is 0.46-0.46 yuan / Jin, and that in the southern region is 0.48-0.49 yuan / Jin, which is 0.05-0.07 yuan / Jin lower than that in the earlier period; the average purchase price of new corn in Shaanxi is about 0.51 yuan / ton, which is also lower than that in the earlier period Although the price of corn protection in the market area has not been determined, it is expected that the purchase price will be basically the same or slightly higher than last year At present, the price in the market area is slightly stagnant, and the trading market is relatively cold compared with the previous period The prices in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Inner Mongolia and other places are 1030 yuan / ton, 1050 yuan / ton, 1060 yuan / ton, respectively, slightly lower than the previous period The market atmosphere is strong, so the price is affected again Go down 4 Northeast storage enterprises have strong selling intention, and market adverse factors have increased Under the influence of a series of adverse factors such as the continuous decline of domestic corn price, the sharp decline of purchasers' enthusiasm for corn procurement in Northeast China compared with the previous period, the resale phenomenon of export corn in port area, the large-scale listing of new grain, and the opening of grain policy in Central Plains area, the collection and storage enterprises, taking into account the development interests in the later period, reduce the inventory pressure before entering WTO, and prepare for the post entering WTO The intention of selling at different stages has increased, and a new round of selling of grain has started in some regions The market tends to be negative due to the decline of the will of the seller 5 The overall grain market is weak and corn prices are under pressure At present, because all varieties in the grain market are in the harvest season, the market supply has increased, and the price has generally declined In addition to the adverse factors of its own market, the price decline of the whole grain market also plays a role in suppressing it Comprehensive analysis shows that it is difficult for the price of corn market to rise in the short term before and after the listing of autumn grain However, by the end of the year, new year's day and Spring Festival are coming, and the demand is expected to have a restorative growth The price of corn is also likely to rise again, but the strength will not be too strong After that, the market price will still be dominated by oscillation.