Is urea ushering in spring?

After the Spring Festival, the domestic urea market has obviously improved, and the market price has also risen to a certain extent.
Judging from the Treasure Island price index, as of February 22, the price index was at 1314, up 1.
39% month-on-month compared to the beginning of the month.
Does this herald the advent of the urea rising cycle? From the perspective of demand, after the year, agricultural demand has improved significantly, companies and distributors are tightly selling goods, and most of the fertilizer preparations in spring are high-nitrogen fertilizers, and the market has risen due to the trend.
It is basically over.
Market support was insufficient in March.
In terms of industrial demand, the Lantern Festival has passed, but downstream industrial demand started slowly.
Compound fertilizer companies had a wave of raw materials stocked years ago, and later demand increases were limited, and board factories were deeply polluted.
The quagmire, the start load increased slowly.
On the whole, the demand for the domestic urea market is still general in the later period.
From the perspective of international market conditions, in recent weeks, the U.
S.
market has seen a sharp upward trend, which has driven the entire international market to rise continuously.
The upward rate in some regions has been irrational.
The increase in offshore prices is in principle beneficial to China’s urea exports.
In terms of the transaction situation, there are very few small transactions in my country.
FMB had predicted a year ago that India might bid for tenders in March.
However, it is understood that at present, India’s port inventory is high and the overall supply is sufficient.
Even last week, the Indian IPC company exported about 30,000 tons of large granular urea to the United States.
Therefore, 3 It is not known whether India will invite tenders in May.
From the perspective of industry policy, on April 20th, electricity prices will still increase, and enterprise costs will increase again by 80-100 yuan/ton, and market prices will once again usher in support.
Enterprises will take the opportunity to continue to raise quotations and support the market to continue to rise.
.
On the whole, agricultural demand will gradually end in mid-to-late March, and industrial demand will be the main factor determining the trend.
If industrial demand increases by then and India can bid for tenders, the market is still expected; if industrial demand grows slowly, urea Market conditions will gradually weaken.
In the later period, industrial demand is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term.
It is expected that the urea market will gradually weaken starting from mid-to-late March.