In the past year or so, the pharmaceutical sector has experienced a significant correction, and the current valuation of the entire sector is low, with a PE of about 24 times, far below the historical average valuation
.
So, is there still an opportunity in the pharmaceutical sector in the fourth quarter?
From the perspective of various brokers, there are
still opportunities for the sector in the long run.
Mainly optimistic about scientific research services, consumer healthcare, innovative drugs and CXO and other major segments
.
Among them, after nearly a year of market adjustment in the scientific research service sector, the valuation of some individual stocks has become attractive
.
The scientific research service industry is in the upstream of the research and development chain, affecting the improvement of scientific research level, the current prosperity of the entire industry continues to rise, and in the context of market expansion and domestic substitution, the track can be said to be a blue ocean market, there is a lot of room for
development.
The industry expects that without considering laboratory equipment, it is estimated that the overall market size of scientific research services will exceed 60 billion yuan in 2020, and the CAGR will be about 20% in 2020-2024, and the driving force of industry growth mainly comes from the vigorous development of the biopharmaceutical industry and the high growth
of life science research and development expenditure.
Although the consumer medical sector has strong consumption attributes, although the plate has been affected by the intensive introduction of a series of regulations and the tightening of policy supervision, it is conducive to the more standardized development of
the industry in the long run.
In the second half of the year, the market demand of the sector was rapidly released, and the good growth momentum was restored from June to July, and the stock price of the sector also recovered
.
Enterprises with strong consumption attributes on the track are optimistic, including bioproduct enterprises with strong R&D capabilities and consumption attributes, head companies of private medical service institutions such as ophthalmology and stomatology, and retail pharmacy enterprises whose performance is expected to be repaired quarter by quarter, as well as consumer goods and personal care that are in line with historical development
.
The innovative drug sector is affected by many factors such as policy adjustments, and the current valuation is low
.
However, the support for innovative drugs at the policy end has not stopped, including the "14th Five-Year" Bioeconomic Development Plan", "14th Five-Year" National Health Plan", "2022 National Basic Medical Insurance, Industrial Injury Insurance and Maternity Insurance Drug Catalogue Adjustment Work Plan", "One-Arm Clinical Trials for Supporting the Applicability of Anti-tumor Drug Marketing Applications (Draft for Comment)" and other policies have been released, encouraging and supporting the development of innovative drugs, coupled with the expansion of demand for innovative drugs under the upgrading of domestic consumption, the plate potential is particularly there
。 The industry believes that the data of domestic innovative drugs at the 2022 ASCO annual meeting performed excellently, the certainty of a number of core varieties of proprietary drugs was gradually confirmed, and the innovative drug sector also ushered in a round of rebound
.
In addition, CXO is also a track
that has attracted the attention of investors.
From the overall point of view, China's CXO industry is mainly gathered in the link of drug research and development and improvement, the demand for high-quality talents is large, and the advantages of Chinese engineers' dividends and labor costs are obvious
.
In the first half of the year, the performance of China's CXO enterprises was eye-catching, and more than 70% of the company's net profit increased year-on-year, of which the net profit attributable to the mother of 5 CXO companies, namely Ruizhi Pharmaceutical, Boteng Shares, Kailai Ying, Haite Biological, and Baicheng Pharmaceutical, increased by more than 100%
year-on-year.
In the long run, with the growth of pharmaceutical R&D investment and the increase in R&D outsourcing rate, the industry's high prosperity cycle or continuation, is expected to maintain high performance growth
.
The industry believes that after the valuation digestion of the CXO sector in the past two years or so, the overall valuation has returned to a more reasonable range, and the low allocation value of the plate is highlighted
in the long run.
