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The growth of "new users" has declined, and new crown vaccine manufacturers continue to exert their efforts on "old users"
.
In the third year of the spread of the new crown epidemic, the global epidemic situation is still developing
.
However, the demand for vaccines is not as good as it was at the beginning of the epidemic, and the supply of new crown vaccines will turn from shortage to oversupply
Since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2020, the new crown track has become a new direction for the Nuggets of pharmaceutical companies
.
Looking at the top 10 pharmaceutical companies by global revenue in 2021, the new crown vaccine and drugs have become one of the highlights of their performance announcements
Image source: People's Daily
To date, more than 11 billion doses of vaccines have been distributed around the world, and the current growth in vaccine distribution is mainly dependent on poor countries with low vaccine coverage
.
However, the COVAX project organization (a project jointly proposed and led by the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization, the World Health Organization and the Alliance for Epidemic Prevention Innovation) stated in January this year that currently in less developed regions, including Africa, the new crown vaccine stockpile has exceeded The main challenge facing Africa is not the shortage of vaccines, but the distribution of vaccines and the hesitancy of the public towards vaccines
.
Today, the tight vaccine supply situation that existed for most of last year has subsided
.
In addition, with more and more vaccine manufacturing companies pouring into this track, the oversupply situation has been exacerbated
Pfizer, which was also popular last year for vaccines, also said in February this year that it expected sales of the new crown vaccine Comirnaty to fall to $32 billion in 2022
.
Analyst firm Airfinity Ltd's forecast for sales of AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine Vaxzevria has fallen in 2022, with sales in 2021 reaching about $4 billion
.
The CEO of COVID-19 vaccine maker Moderna said on a conference call that the U.
S.
government has yet to deliver orders for 2022, and hinted that there would be room for growth if the U.
S.
buys a lot of booster shots
.
That is to say, since the market for "new users" is gradually narrowing, it will continue to focus on "old users"
.
At present, new crown vaccine manufacturers have begun to speed up their efforts to seek the authorized use of booster shots, and the competition has developed to the second booster dose (ie, the fourth dose of the vaccine)
.
On March 29, Pfizer issued an announcement saying that the new crown vaccine jointly developed with BioNTech has been authorized by the FDA to expand its emergency use scope.
Certain groups of people can receive the second booster shot of this vaccine, and the injection time of the second booster vaccine is the same as the first one.
Dosing should be at least four months apart
.
These groups include: people 50 years and older; immunocompromised people 12 years and older
On the same day, the second booster dose of Moderna's new crown vaccine was also authorized by the FDA for emergency use in people aged 50 and over and people with immunocompromised people aged 18 and over
.
In addition, regulators are expected to authorize the two vaccine makers to provide additional doses of the vaccine to a wider population in the fall
.
However, the effectiveness of the fourth dose of the vaccine is still widely divided in the industry
.
Domestically, before and after the fourth dose of inactivated vaccine, the GMT (neutralizing antibody titer) of the original strain in the volunteers increased by 19 times, but the effect on Omicron was poor, only increased by 2.
9 times, which was the same as the third.
Needle protection is about the same
.
That is, the peak of neutralizing antibody targeting RBD induced by the fourth dose of inactivated vaccine was lower than that of the third dose
Data from Israel (the first country to give the third and fourth doses of the vaccine) showed that the efficacy of the fourth dose waned after about four months, which also broke the previous market for the fourth dose.
Research in the New England Journal of Medicine concluded that in young and healthy people, a fourth dose of the vaccine provided "less" protection than just three shots
In addition, experts warn that if new highly pathogenic variants of the virus emerge, vaccine boosters and weakened immunity from previous infections, combined with the current relatively loose travel restrictions, could lead to the collapse of the entire healthcare system
With the emergence of new variants, whether the original vaccine is still protective will be a new question
