Is the domestic futures market safe after all kinds of plummeting?

Introduction: the market suffered from cold in the period of economic cooling yesterday Influenced by the fall of futures prices in the international futures market and domestic negative factors, the domestic futures market fell sharply across the board, including copper, aluminum, natural rubber in Shanghai Futures Exchange, and hard wheat and strong wheat varieties in Zhengzhou Commodity exchange all fell to a halt until the closing Major soybean and soybean meal contracts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange also fell by 40 to 60 points respectively We believe that the sharp decline of futures market is not only affected by the supply and demand changes of various varieties, but also by the deep-seated macroeconomic environment Since the sudden drop in the macro-economy in 2003, China has witnessed rapid growth in fixed asset investment, overheated growth in some industries, and substantial increase in the price of basic industrial raw materials The consumption of energy and electricity is growing too fast, resulting in a large-scale power shortage After 15 months of deflation, inflation began to appear and gradually accelerated In November 2003, the annual inflation rate reached 3%, the biggest increase in nearly seven years In the first quarter of this year, the situation is still deteriorating: investment in fixed assets, including steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum and other industries where the state clearly restricts investment overheating, has seen a significantly higher growth rate than in 2003 In the face of the problems in the macro-economy, since the third quarter of 2003, the Chinese government has issued a series of regulatory policies Premier Wen Jiabao presided over the executive meeting of the State Council on April 9 this year, demanding that "we must continue to strengthen macro-control, resolutely control the excessive growth of investment, prevent inflation and prevent economic ups and downs This is a very important and urgent task for the current economic work " After the people's Bank of China proposed to implement the system of differential reserve ratio on March 24 this year, it decided to raise the reserve ratio again on April 11 From the perspective of the intensive regulation and control policies issued by China, the regulation and control efforts will be very strong this time Affected by this, since mid April, China's stock market, bond market and futures market have fallen sharply Specifically for the impact on the futures industry: tight monetary policy and control of over rapid growth of investment will significantly inhibit the consumption demand of industrial raw materials, especially those related to the construction industry; in the short and medium term, the impact on the basic metal varieties of the futures market will be greater From the perspective of capital, it may reduce the inflow of the whole market operation capital to a certain extent, at least it will cause considerable difficulty to the inflow of market capital To prevent inflation is to limit the continuous rise of prices, which will undoubtedly be a strong cold air for the bull market that has been going through for more than two years Looking back at the bull market of the whole commodity futures market, the profitable bulls basically started from 2002 Only CBOT wheat made a correction of nearly 100% from September 2002 to March 2003, and then rose for 11 months After more than two years of growth, the smallest increase was in aluminum and wheat, which also achieved a rise of about 50%; the growth of other varieties exceeded 100% As the futures market is margin trading, after a long period of sharp rise, the main bull's profits have been very rich Due to the "fear of heights" mentality of investors, at the end of the period price rise, the domestic market's rising energy gradually weakens, which is reflected in two aspects: first, the rising range of the domestic market obviously lags behind that of the international market: for example, according to the According to the closing price calculation on April 20, 2004, the main contracts of domestic varieties are converted according to the import cost Generally speaking, the soybean price is 300 yuan / ton lower than the international market, the soybean meal is 600 yuan / ton lower, the Tianjiao is 800 yuan / ton lower, and the copper is 1500 yuan / ton lower Although the price of aluminum is higher than that of the international market, the difference between the period price of domestic aluminum main contracts and LME aluminum has also begun to narrow in the near future The second is that the concentration of positions of the main bulls is also getting higher and higher: according to the data of the exchange, the positions of the top five bulls of the main contracts in the futures market on March 1 accounted for the following proportion of unilateral positions: Aluminum 43.9%, copper 29%, Tianjiao 36.7%, soybean 29.2%, soybean meal, 66.7% From the operational point of view, the market's long main force in its own position concentration is very high, and there are rich profits, there is a great demand for profit taking At this time, in the face of macro negative, a sharp correction is inevitable The appreciation of the U.S dollar suppressed commodity prices in mid April Under the condition of good U.S economic data and strong economic recovery, the euro fell again against the U.S dollar On April 20, Greenspan pointed out that "the U.S has got rid of its long-standing doubts about deflation" and "the banking sector is ready for higher interest rates." The US dollar has appreciated again in recent days, which has suppressed the price of commodity futures priced in US dollar Although the performance of the world economy in the first quarter is very good and people's confidence in economic growth recovery is significantly enhanced, for the above reasons, there is still a large amount of downward energy in the short and medium-term futures market Tianjiao: on the way of value return, Shanghai natural rubber contract fell and stopped on Wednesday, and the whole market was completely under the control of short sellers Finally, the law of market value showed great power In the future, the rubber price will accelerate to close to a reasonable value range, and the decline really begins After two previous setbacks, since April, the trend of Shanghai rubber has basically stabilized With the long short main force temporarily finding a balance between 16000 and 16200, the fluctuation range of the period price is decreasing day by day, and there is a rare quiet phenomenon on the market, and the debate on the future market is becoming more and more intense Yesterday's break down seems to have answered earlier confusion and divergence, which is that price fluctuations ultimately depend on commodity value and market supply and demand On a global scale, natural rubber will still be at a high level in recent years, and the situation of short supply will not change But in the recent stage, the signs of Shanghai rubber market weakening are more and more obvious, which mainly has the following reasons: on the one hand, when the spot price has softened to 14600 last week, the futures price is actually higher than 16100 on Monday, and the basis of nearly 1500 points will undoubtedly attract most of the spot merchants to rush into the futures market for hedging and selling in the rubber production period after April Inventory has broken through 200000 on April 16, and the main strength of short sellers has been greatly enhanced On the other hand, the signal that the country is tightening monetary policy is very obvious Affected by this, some speculative hot money in the capital market will inevitably be impacted in a short period of time The "cross Jianglong" fund has rapidly flowed out of the market And after the explosive growth of the automobile industry last year pushed up the price of Shanghai rubber, this year's domestic rubber demand has changed to a stable growth under the influence of domestic macro fundamentals Spot sales are not as strong as expected in the early stage of the market, and there are rumors in the market that the previous period will change the delivery standard of Tianjiao, which has a great impact on the psychological level of investors Finally, the import volume of natural rubber in the first quarter in the list of futures commodity import in March released by the General Administration of Customs on April 15 was 320000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6% This is mainly because the high rubber price has affected the purchasing enthusiasm of domestic users, and the mainstream rubber manufacturers are waiting for the rubber price to fall From the above analysis, it can be seen that on the basis of long-term improvement, the downward adjustment of Shanghai Jiaotong in recent months is the general trend From the international market, Tokyo rubber has plummeted from 164 yen to 153 yen on Wednesday The price of rubber in Southeast Asia's main production areas is still at a high level, which makes it unattractive Domestic buyers are generally on the sidelines, and it is possible to fall to 130 cents At the same time, the U.S dollar, stimulated by the strong recovery of the U.S economy, is irreversible This will have an impact on the price of international bulk agricultural products, and Shanghai Jiaotong will not be spared In terms of operation, the weak characteristics of Shanghai rubber are very obvious In short term, the main reason is to lose weight at every high level, so we can't take chances If there is a continuous sharp decline, there should be a rebound, which is also an opportunity to vent at every high level The upper gear resistance is 16350, and the lower gear support is 14935 Zheng Mai: Rome wasn't built in a day On Wednesday, the main contracts of hard wheat and strong wheat, which had a relatively peaceful trend in the past, showed that the adjustment of wheat price in Zhengshang Institute was not only technical, but there must be a deeper reason behind it that affected the supply and demand of wheat Wheat is the main food product in China From the current economic development level of all parts of China, the northeast and northwest regions, where flour is the main food, generally have low income of urban residents Therefore, the rapid rise of wheat price has a great impact on the lives of the general public, especially the laid-off workers Therefore, macro-control of the supply and demand of wheat and other staple foods is the country's first choice policy To this end, since the end of last year, the state has issued a series of policies to curb the excessive rise of grain prices and encourage farmers to grow grain For example, the central No 1 document on the "three rural" issue, the recent policy of reducing the value-added tax on Wheat Import, etc At the same time, the relevant departments of the state cooperated with the macro policies of the state to increase the speed and quantity of wheat storage, and to increase the purchase of foreign wheat The effects of these macro policies will certainly restrain the increase of domestic grain prices, especially the supply and demand of domestic wheat In terms of wheat supply, the market is more direct and sensitive to the State Reserve wheat auction Since this year, there have been three large-scale wheat auctions in Henan Province alone In particular, the number of auctions on Wednesday is as high as 2.5 million tons, which is much higher than the previous auction of 1.4 million tons This fully shows the government's determination and regulation to curb the excessive rise of wheat prices Although the auction can not improve the tense situation of domestic wheat supply and demand, at least in the short term, the number of wheat that can be circulated in the market will increase greatly, which will fundamentally relieve the market tension and anxiety While the supply increases substantially, the potential demand pressure disappears suddenly, which makes the supply of domestic wheat increase relatively In addition to the above policy impact, there are two other changes that have a certain negative impact on wheat prices The first is that the government has recently issued a policy to stabilize the price of agricultural materials, which will prevent the cost of grain production from rising too fast, and thus have an impact on restraining the rising trend of wheat prices Second, since July, the storage capacity of the wheat production area of Zhengshang Institute has been opened, so that the storage cost of hard wheat has been greatly reduced Relatively speaking, the strength of wheat air side has been strengthened This is also an important factor that causes the adjustment range of hard wheat to be larger than that of strong wheat Technically, the important support level for the decline of the company is around 2060-2090 yuan, which is calculated based on the measurement of the decline of the small double head of the company Not only that, the decline can also be calculated according to the square theory Since the operation of the strong wheat always keeps the rhythm of the square number, the decline from the highest price of 2229 yuan may also get support near the square of an integer If it falls 144 yuan (12 square), the target is 2085 yuan, if it falls 169 yuan (13 square), the target is 2060 yuan In addition, from the bottom of last year's 1550 yuan to the highest 2229 yuan, an increase of 679 yuan, 25%