Is China's feed product market saturated now

Introduction: feed industry, what is your development potential? "Debao Cup" 2003 feed market large award collection third prize works CDN score: 6.25 CDN recently, and many industry contacts, heard such a feeling: China's feed market has been saturated! I think that although the meaning of this sentence is a little too general, it implies how to develop our feed industry and feed product market in the future It really deserves our industry's careful consideration I would like to talk about my opinion on this: for colleagues to participate in the evaluation CDN 1 The development history of feed industry CDN human beings have experienced more than 10000 years from hunting to domestication of livestock, but it is less than 100 years since modern science and technology were used to raise and manage livestock and poultry Although the theory of biological oxidation return was put forward 200 years ago (a.l.lavoisier, 1748-1794; p.laplace, 1740-1822), but it has been applied to production practice since the end of last century It has gone through "a.thaer, 1809", "o.kellner, 1926", "h.p.armsby, 1922" and "f.b.morrison, After a series of practices, the foundation of modern animal nutrition came into being and the feeding standard system of different livestock and poultry was established Generally, it can be divided into three stages: the first is the incubation stage of modern nutrition (from the 19th century to the middle of the 20th century), mainly focusing on the function of nutrition elements and the study of apparent feeding effect The second is the first leap stage of feed industry (from the middle of the 20th century to the 1990s) With the continuous improvement of scientific research means, the development of feed industry and the expansion of intensive cultivation scale, people have realized the nutritional metabolism law of different animal groups in different environments The third is the second leap of feed industry (from 1990s to the end of 20th century) People not only understand the regulation mechanism of feeding animals themselves, the restriction of external environment on metabolism, the stress on normal physiology and the relationship between nutrition and immunity Fourth, the third leap of feed industry (the beginning of the 21st century) with the development and improvement of molecular biology and nanotechnology, the research of animal nutrition and metabolism has entered the molecular level, so as to try to regulate the digestion and metabolism of animals genetically With the rapid development of feed industry and the completion of various technical means, its product development is also toward the direction of high-tech, so its products are also various and have their own characteristics, which makes the industry feel a little suitable, let alone the outside world? Perhaps in a certain area, the products with low technology content have been saturated, so it is a mistake for people to think that the market of feed products has been saturated At present, the characteristics of China's feeding industry is the combination of intensive scale feeding and traditional farmers' decentralized feeding, which is mainly determined by the characteristics of China's feeding industry Although CDN has been developing for more than 20 years since the reform and opening up, this feature has not changed fundamentally, and it is not expected to change significantly in a long time This determines that the feed market should be divided into two parts That is, intensive scale feed market and farmers' decentralized feed market According to the statistics of the relevant departments, at present, the total number of pig farmers and the pigs produced by the breeding farms, which are more than 50 pigs, only accounts for 13.6% of the total pig production in China That is to say, Guangdong Province, which has a rapid development of intensive scale breeding industry, only accounts for about 15% The number of scattered farmers is huge and the demand for feed market is great, Therefore, it is necessary to open up the feed market in rural areas In recent years, the variety and product structure of feed in China have changed significantly With the steady growth of China's feed product output, China's feed product structure has been constantly adjusted Feed varieties include not only compound feed, concentrate supplement and single feed, but also feed additives, additive premixed feed, concentrated feed, etc Among them, compound feed accounts for about 80% of the total feed output, concentrated feed accounts for about 15%, and other feed accounts for about 5% In addition, at the beginning of feed industry, mixed feed is the main feed, and now it has been replaced by high-quality compound feed Concentrated feed and additive premixed feed with high technology content are highly developed According to the variety and quantity of animals raised, it can be divided into pig feed, egg feed, meat feed, aquatic feed, ruminant feed and other animal feed All kinds of animal feeds vary according to the change of breeding quantity According to the statistics in the 1990s, pig feed accounts for about 40% of the total feed output, egg feed and meat feed account for about 25% respectively, aquatic animal feed, ruminant feed and other animal feed account for about 10% CDN 3 The quality of feed products is constantly improved During the first national unified inspection of CDN in 1990, the qualified rate of compound feed was only 59.7%; in 1995, 2638 batches of pig and chicken compound feed were randomly inspected, the qualified rate was 62%; in 1998, 1325 batches of compound feed were randomly inspected, the qualified rate was 89.7% The qualified rate of nutrition indexes, such as crude protein, crude fiber, crude ash, crude fat, calcium, phosphorus, salt and so on, has been greatly increased; the health indexes, such as lead, arsenic, mercury, cadmium, aflatoxin and harmful microorganisms, have been decreased The composition and economic type of feed enterprises in China have changed to a great extent CDN China's feed industry began in the 1970s It was developed in the 1980s and the feed industry system was initially formed The 1990s is a decade of rapid development of China's feed industry By 2000, there were more than 12000 feed production enterprises in China, with a total output of 750 million tons Compared with the early 1990s, the annual growth of compound feed, concentrated feed and additive premixed feed is 6.7%, 40.1% and 30% respectively The output value of feed reached 200 billion yuan, ranking 16th among 36 industries in China The economic types of feed production enterprises are constantly changing At first, it was mainly state-owned enterprises, accounting for more than 95% of the feed market share With the development of market economy, the trend of group and scale of feed production is obvious, and the stock and privatization of enterprises are developing rapidly The number of three capital, private and collective enterprises has risen sharply, accounting for more than 70% of the feed market share CDN 3 The current problems in feed market CDN 1 The feed market is oversupplied, and the feed raw material price has been stable at a high price The corn price is 1300-1400 yuan / ton, and the fish meal price is about 6000 yuan / ton The increase of feed cost has caused considerable difficulties to the operation of enterprises Some feed enterprises transfer investment to other industries, which seriously hinders the development of feed industry Cdn2 With the rapid increase of feed product varieties and quantity in China, the competition among feed processing enterprises is increasingly fierce The state's macro-control has not kept up with it, and there is a lack of perfect mechanism and strong management measures The sales of feed products are increasingly dependent on intermediate links Therefore, in order to reduce the production cost, some feed enterprises use inferior feed to replace good feed, inferior feed to replace excellent feed, and low-quality fake feed and products to enter the market, which seriously destroys the stability of feed market, making the sale of feed products more and more difficult CDN 3 The abnormal competition among feed enterprises intensifies under the condition of the stagnant aquaculture market, especially some small feed enterprises, whose popularity is not high, and whose quality cannot compete with large companies and enterprises In order to maintain their original market, on the one hand, they generally use credit sales to stabilize their customers However, in the absence of laws and restraint mechanisms, farmers or dealers often default on payment for goods due to poor earnings, or counterclaim feed enterprises on the pretext of substandard product quality, which causes a lot of economic losses to feed enterprises and makes their business situation difficult On the other hand, in order to compete for the market, feed enterprises compete for price reduction sales Because feed products themselves are low profit sales, their price demand elasticity is small, and even the ultimate loss of loss sales is the enterprise itself Not only can not bring profits to the enterprise, but also can only increase the burden of the enterprise, making the production and operation of the enterprise more and more difficult Give people an illusion - feed market has become saturated With the improvement of the food structure of Chinese residents, the consumption of meat, eggs, milk and other animal food has further increased According to statistical analysis, the per capita GDP of China has increased by 10%, which can increase the indirect consumption of food by 4.3 million tons, especially the change of food structure of urban residents From 1986 to 1999, the per capita consumption of rations decreased from 172.2kg to 116.6kg, down 35.2%, while the per capita consumption of animal food increased from 32.6kg to 42.6kg, up 30.7% By 2005, the goal of China's agricultural plan is to produce 58.5 million tons of meat, 17.5 million tons of eggs, 18.8 million tons of dairy products and 30 million tons of aquatic products According to the feed conversion rate at the end of this century, it takes about 170 million tons of feed to produce these meat, eggs and milk The demand is very large, and it will gradually increase The feed market prospect is very broad By 2010, it is estimated that China's compound feed output will reach 100 million tons, 7 million tons of concentrate and 2 million tons of premix At present, China's feed production capacity and scale are far from enough, and the development of feed market needs further exploration, with a large potential market CDN 2 Premix and concentrate have a bright future Full price granular materials will be the future development direction in China Because of the large mountainous areas, vast territory and inconvenient transportation, farmers still have a large amount of surplus grain in their hands and need to mix additives and concentrates, so additives will have a large market in the early next century From 1990 to 1995, the average growth rate of concentrate and additive premix was higher than that of compound feed In 1999, the sales volume of full price compound feed decreased, while the concentrate and additive showed a continuous growth trend, so the market prospect of premix, concentrate and additive feed is promising There has been a relative surplus in feed production, which is only the relative surplus of some feed varieties The investment and technology of concentrate and additive feed in feed enterprises are relatively weak, and the supply is always in short supply CDN 3 In the feed market, the proportion of pig feed is gradually decreasing, and the proportion of poultry feed and aquatic feed continues to rise At present, the consumption of pork products in China still accounts for a large proportion However, with the improvement of people's living standards, the demand for food nutrition is higher and higher People will gradually shift from the traditional consumption of pork to the consumption of livestock and poultry products with high nutritional protein content, such as poultry meat, eggs, fish and milk, The development of feed industry must be guided by breeding industry In 1990, pig feed accounted for 55.8%, egg feed for 18.2%, meat feed for 22%, and fish and shrimp feed for 3.7% By 1995, the structure of feed varieties was 43%, 26%, 24% and 5% 1999 is an important year for feed structure adjustment The feed for pigs decreased, the feed for eggs and poultry remained the same, the feed for meat and poultry increased slightly, and the feed for fish and shrimp doubled This change shows that the proportion of pig feed decreases, while that of poultry feed and aquatic feed increases gradually, and the structural adjustment tends to be rationalized The change of feed production structure always lags behind the change of feed demand structure The supply and demand of some feed varieties tend to be saturated or oversupplied, while some feed varieties are seriously oversupplied On the surface of CDN, the feed market seems to be in a saturated state, but this saturation is only a surface phenomenon As long as we carefully analyze it, we can really understand its essence Our feed industry has great potential for development Our feed market also