IQVIA predicts that global drug spending will reach $1.8 trillion in 2026

Recently, the IQVIA Institute released a major report - The Global Use of Medicines 2022: Outlook to 2026.

The report reviews global drug spending in recent years from the dimensions of time, country/region, market type, product type, and key therapeutic areas , and forecasts the performance and trends of the global drug market in the next five years

1.

Specialty drugs are also a big driver of drug spending , which is expected to account for 45% of global drug spending by 2026

① COVID-19

From the launch of the first COVID-19 vaccine to 2026, total global spending on COVID-19 vaccines is expected to reach $251 billion; spending on COVID-19 treatments will reach $58 billion, in other words, the total amount of COVID-19-related vaccines and treatments Spending will reach $309 billion

②New product launch

Spending on new products in major developed markets will grow by $196 billion by 2026, compared with $161 billion over the past five years, an increase of more than 20%

③ Product patent expires

In the next 5 years, with the expiration of patents of many blockbuster varieties in developed markets, the impact of loss of market exclusivity (LOE) will reach US$188 billion, compared with US$111 billion in the past five years, the impact of patent expiration will further expand

2.

US: Drug spending is expected to be at a CAGR of 0-3% over the next 5 years, down from a CAGR of 3.

Japan: The adjustment of drug prices has changed from biennial to annual, and the first "non-annual" price reduction will be implemented in 2021.

EU-4 + UK: Drug spending is expected to have a CAGR of 3%-6% over the next five years, with spending rising by $51 billion (excluding spending on COVID-19 vaccines and treatments)

②China 's innovation accelerates, leading emerging markets

In 2021, China's pharmaceutical spending will reach US$169 billion, an increase of more than US$100 billion from US$68 billion in 2011

Growth in China's pharmaceutical market remains the largest contributor to the growth of emerging pharmaceutical markets
.
The main contributor to the growth of China's pharmaceutical spending is the original research brand drugs, with a CAGR of 10.
4% from 2022 to 2026, while the CAGR of other types of products will not exceed 3%
.

3.
Tumors continue to lead, followed by immunity and diabetes

In terms of therapeutic areas, oncology, immunology, diabetes and neurology are the main drivers of global drug spending in the next five years , of which oncology will continue to be the largest contributor to growth due to the continuous emergence of new treatments
.
It is expected that more than 100 new therapies will be approved in the field of oncology in the next five years , and the expenditure on oncology drugs will reach US$306 billion in 2026, an increase of US$119 billion compared with US$187 billion in 2021, an increase of 63%.
The growth rate is 9%-12%, ranking first among all therapeutic areas
.

In the field of immunization , drug spending will reach $178 billion in 2026, an increase of $51 billion from $127 billion in 2021, with a compound annual growth rate of 6%-9%
.
In developed markets, price pressures from generics and biosimilars, as well as product patent expiry, partially offset higher spending from higher drug use and new product launches
.

Diabetes drug spending is expected to reach $173 billion in 2026, growing at a CAGR of 6%-9%
.
Nervous system drug spending will reach $151 billion, growing at a CAGR of 3%-6%, with new treatments for rare neurological diseases, Alzheimer's disease and migraine being the main drivers of growth
.
It is worth noting that the CAGR of anticoagulation and skin drug expenditures in the next five years is 8%-11%, the growth rate is second only to that of tumors
.