Investigation report on wheat situation in some areas of Henan, Hebei and Shandong in March 2005

Introduction: In order to better grasp the basic situation of the main wheat producing areas at present, including stock, spot, production and the policies and measures implemented in various regions, we spontaneously organized a one week inspection tour of the main wheat producing areas, which started from Xuzhou on March 7, 2005, with a group of three people, covering a journey of more than 3000 kilometers Along the way, we inspected Xinxiang, Hebi, Gaocheng and Shanshan in Henan Province, Hebei Province Jining, Eastern Province, returned to Xuzhou on March 12 Through visiting agricultural, grain, storage and food processing enterprises, going deep into the field, talking with farmers, observing the growth of wheat seedlings in person, we obtained detailed first-line materials in the main wheat production areas for reference Survey of wheat in Xinxiang: In the afternoon of March 7, our investigation team and three people arrived in Xinxiang They first visited the Grain Bureau of Xinxiang City As director Sun Baoping in charge of the agriculture of the area, he introduced to us that the total sown area of wheat in Xinxiang City is about 4 million mu, of which the area of strong gluten wheat is about 3 million mu, accounting for 75% The main varieties are Yumai 34 and 8901, and the rest are ordinary hard wheat, with large yield per mu About 700-800 Jin As the main production area of high-quality wheat, Xinxiang City has started the farmers to plant high-quality wheat earlier than other areas, and the work is in place The farmers also really taste the benefits of planting high-quality wheat, so basically all the fields for wheat planting will be planted This year, the state's total reduction and exemption of agricultural taxes and a series of other preferential agricultural policies have not played an obvious role in stimulating the increase of the sown area in this region In terms of climate, director Sun said that the warm winter of this year has always been considered in the early stage So far, this year is not really a warm winter, but rather a cold winter It has exceeded the previous years both in terms of time and degree of coldness At the same time, the cold air continues to fall southward recently, resulting in the occurrence of frost damage in the region reaching 20-30%, which has a certain impact on the production, but its impact on the production is large It won't be very big On the contrary, on the other hand, cold weather is also a good thing, which reduces the incidence of pests in the later period, and is conducive to the improvement of wheat quality Of course, we are most concerned about the trend of wheat price in the later period of this year Director Sun gave us a detailed reply from the policy aspect: first of all, at present, the national macro policy is still to increase farmers' income, reduce agricultural tax, encourage farmers to grow grain enthusiasm, so as to alleviate the continuous reduction of domestic grain production in the past five years If the price of grain falls, it will offset the preferential policies given by the state to farmers Of course, as farmers, they will not be willing to accept it It can be said that no one is willing to see the price fall Secondly, in terms of imports, a considerable part of it will enter the replenishment warehouse, which will not cause much impact on the domestic market Finally, there is still a gap in domestic demand, even if there is a good harvest this year, it will not be enough Fill the gap From director Sun's views on the above three aspects, we can easily conclude that there is not much room for grain prices to fall later this year, but in terms of national stability, a large increase is also unlikely The future market is dominated by stability, rising steadily, which is more in line with the current basic situation Next, we came to wudeli company, the largest flour processing enterprise in Xinxiang Ma Qiuliang, general manager of the company, talked about his views on the current market price He thought: wheat is flat in the near future, and there is not much room for rise, but there is a great possibility of decline on the contrary According to the experience over the years, in the later period of April to may, there will be a stage of farmers' active grain selling, with a high probability of callback According to director Bao Yaobin of the grain reserve, the price performance in the local spot market is higher than that in the early stage At present, the ex warehouse price of high-quality wheat is about 30-50 yuan / ton higher than that before and after the Spring Festival, reaching 1610 yuan / ton At the same time, he stressed that the near future belongs to the recovery stage of major flour processing plants after the festival, and increased procurement to maintain the production needs of the near stage In the next 2-3 months, director Bao Yaobin basically agrees with general manager Ma of wudeli company, and has the requirement of falling back In the survey of the surrounding farmers, the farmers are generally able to accept the current price of about 0.8 yuan / jin of wheat In addition, the state has implemented direct subsidies for grain planting, while exemption from agricultural taxes, so the farmers are very happy But one thing is that the price of agricultural materials is rising They generally reflect that the price of agricultural materials is rising too fast If it rises again, it will swallow up the subsidies and other benefits offered by the state Survey of wheat in Hebi: the sown area of wheat in Hebi is 1.2 million mu, the same as last year Among them, the planting area of high-quality wheat is about 650000 mu, and the varieties of high-quality wheat are basically the same as those of Xinxiang, Yumai 34 and 8901 Zhang section chief of the agricultural adjustment Department of the Grain Bureau introduced the wheat growth situation in this area to us She thought: this year, due to the early warm winter wheat appeared vigorous growth, and the recent cold current frequent southward, it caused certain freeze damage to the vigorous wheat, but on the whole, if the temperature can rise back in the later period and keep normal, the impact of freeze damage will not be very big When talking about the price trend in the later period of this year's grain, Zhang section chief, based on policy factors and the consideration of continuous reduction of inventory, summed up the trend in the later period with four words of steady rise, and also did not hold the view of bearish During the inspection of the grain reserve, it happened that the director of the warehouse was not available, so we didn't know the specific situation of the stock, but we learned from the spot merchants who were delivering wheat They thought that at present, the country pays attention to the income of farmers, the grain problem is related to the national security, the country is not willing to see the price of wheat fall, the fall of wheat will weaken the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain, and the future market of wheat is still up Space for ascension After looking at the trade talks, he smiled happily and looked at the future market optimistically Investigation of wheat in Gaocheng: We drove more than 400 kilometers from Hebi to Gaocheng City, the main wheat producing area of Hebei Province We also visited the Grain Bureau of Gaocheng City and received Zhang, director of Agriculture Department of the Grain Bureau of Gaocheng City First, we learned about the planting area, yield per mu and wheat quality of Gaocheng The wheat planting area of Gaocheng is about 5 million mu, and more than 90% is Compared with last year, the area of high-quality wheat has not changed much Yumai 34 is mainly planted, with a per mu yield of more than 500 kg, which is one of the highest yield areas in our investigation In terms of seedling situation, director Zhang of the agriculture department said: this year's seedling situation is more serious than that of last year due to several large-scale cold currents after the Spring Festival, and the number of serious plots reaches 20% However, due to the warm winter in the early stage of this year, the tillering is more sufficient Even if there is freezing injury, the number of plants is still higher than that of last year So far, the impact of freezing injury on the output of this year is not very significant Big, the key is to make another forecast in the middle and late April, which can basically accurately predict this year's output However, at this stage, winter wheat began to turn green one after another, until late March, most parts of Hebei Province were still in the turning green stage, and began to enter the jointing stage at the beginning of April Due to the accelerated growth of plants after turning green, the ability of cold resistance decreased significantly In addition, the climate of early spring wheat field was changeable, and the freezing damage affected the growth of wheat, and ultimately led to the reduction of production If this stage suffers from severe frost damage, the wheat in jointing stage will be frozen to death, which will directly lead to the yield level of winter wheat, so "late spring cold" is very important to the yield of wheat Secondly, it is necessary to prevent the occurrence of drought, which affects the development of ear organs, sharply reduces the number of grains per ear and has the greatest impact on yield Finally, the director added: the drought has been well controlled at present, mainly due to the recent increase in investment in water conservancy facilities in major wheat producing areas, which can basically reach the point of timely irrigation in case of drought Later, we came to Gaocheng National Grain Reserve, Shijiazhuang, which is also the delivery warehouse of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Zhao Lihong, manager of the business department, talked about his views on the current wheat trend He thought that the wheat spot market in this area has become active Now the wheat out of the warehouse is 5 points / kg higher than the previous period, reaching 0.87 yuan / kg, equivalent to 1740 yuan / kg Yuan / ton The price is higher than that of surrounding Henan and Shandong This is mainly because the wheat quality in Gaocheng is better, and the digestion ability of this area is strong, and the commodity rate of wheat is less than 50%, which is the main reason for the higher price than that in Henan and Shandong Finally, manager Zhao talked about the impact of wheat market from the perspective of reserve rotation As an important tool of macro-control, the central and local grain reserve systems should start from stabilizing the overall situation of the national wheat market, and pay great attention to the rotation rhythm In this year's special period, the reform of grain enterprises in major provinces will impact the market if they do not pay attention to the rotation rhythm Then we visited the farmers in the suburbs They were also satisfied with the policies and prices of this year They were worried about the price increase of agricultural materials, which would increase the cost of grain production In the afternoon of that day, we were going to leave Gaocheng for the next stop and the last stop of our visit, Jining, Shandong Province On the way back, we slowed down our speed and observed the freezing damage of wheat According to our observation, the area of freezing damage was almost 20% as the situation known by the grain administration, and the most serious one was basically withered yellow at about 5% Fortunately, if the temperature can rise rapidly in the later period, it can still recover some losses, otherwise it will cause a significant reduction in production The climate in the next month is still the focus of our attention If the cold air goes southward frequently, it will cause no small loss to the production of this year Jining wheat survey: we came to Jining at 10 a.m the next day When we arrived at the office of director Li Changyuan of the Grain Bureau, director Li was looking at the wheat futures market on the computer After simply explaining our intention to Director Li, director Li talked to us about the wheat situation this year He said: this year, the wheat planting area in Jining area has reached 5 million mu, more than 80% of which are high-quality wheat, and about 60% of which are single varieties However, it is still a problem to be able to achieve single receipt and single storage, so only 20-30% of the wheat requirements in our futures can be achieved But on the one hand, under the regulation of the market economy, farmers are becoming more and more aware of the high quality and good price In terms of national statistics this year, the sown area of Winter Wheat in China has increased by about 5% compared with last year However, as far as we know, the actual sown area in this region has not increased as the declared data Part of this is to adjust the data in response to the national policy, and at the same time to apply for more direct subsidies from the state On this issue, director kuhu of Jining No.1 Grain Reserve also has the same view, that is, the sown area of wheat will not be greatly improved The farmers who originally changed to other cash crops will not easily change to wheat The main reason is that the income of cash crops is still much higher than that of wheat planting Even if the state gives subsidies, the income of cash crops will not be high In this year, the sown area should be stable and slightly increased Director Hu added that this year's soil moisture is good and there are many tillers, so the total amount of seedlings is higher than last year's on this point alone, this year's output will exceed last year's total output, which has a certain restraining effect on the market