Investigation on the causal chain of grain price fluctuation

Introduction: starting from the logical chain of retailers, wholesalers, processing plants, grain purchasers and farmers, we find that the change of purchase price is the key Why does the purchase price suddenly change? In autumn harvest, the price of grain and oil suddenly rises unexpectedly It starts from Urumqi in the west, Shanghai in the East, Beijing in the north and Shenzhen in the south The price of edible oil, flour and rice rises by 10% - 20% at the same time Then it affects other foods such as meat, eggs, poultry and milk Until the beginning of this month, the price fell back When, where and by whom did the BL8 wave originate first, how did it spread and fluctuate, and finally when and where? BL8 with these questions, our reporter from the end of October, to rice as a single tracking object, trying to find this causal chain This chain starts from Guangdong Province, which is the grain selling area, and finally Anhui Province, which is the grain producing area It traces back to the current and proves in the market through the circulation channel of retailers, wholesalers, processing plants, grain purchasers and farmers However, no matter in the sales area or production area, no matter in grain retailers, wholesalers or processing factories, the reason for price increase is simply attributed to "the purchase price rises, and the sales price will naturally follow the rise", and their respective purchase and sales records also prove that they are just "sensors" in this chain, and the rice sales link is not the beginning In this way, the source of BL8 is rice purchase, and the purchase price becomes the target BL8 however, why has the purchase price of grain suddenly increased since 1998? On November 1, BL8, the reporter rushed to Chuzhou, Anhui Province, and recorded the course of fluctuation in this "main production area in the main production area" At the end of BL8, in fact, in Anhui Province, whether it is the grain sector, private grain merchants or processing enterprises, in September, they have unanimously made the expectation that the grain purchase price will rise this autumn In the early September of BL8, the late rice in the field has not been harvested The grain Department of Chuzhou has determined that the purchase price this year will be low first, then high and then low, but the starting price will be higher than last year BL8 The direct basis of the judgment is the reduction of production: on the one hand, the area of cultivated land in Anhui will continue to decrease after the conversion of arable land to forest of more than 5 million mu this year, coupled with the abandonment of farmland by farmers; on the other hand, during the rice growing season in July and August, Anhui first suffered from the flood of the Yangtze and Huaihe River, and then suffered from the continuous high temperature for 15 days, which greatly affected the heading and seed setting If you grab a handful of rice ears in the field, you can find that the grains are dried up or even empty, leaving only the shell 。 The result of double natural disasters is a large-scale reduction of late rice yield Tianchang's disaster is not the most serious in Chuzhou It is estimated that the yield of late rice in Anhui may be reduced by 30-40% It is a predictable fact that the short-term supply in some areas is reduced The transportation of grain from Northeast China has encountered a bottleneck that has not been solved for many years - transportation difficulties lead to high costs, and the cost of each car is as high as tens of thousands, so even if Northeast China has a big harvest this year, it is far from being able to hydrolyze nearly thirsty BL8's shortage of grain resources has become a foregone conclusion However, there are more monks entering the market to divide porridge Because of the opening of the grain market in the whole province, private grain merchants with legal status swarmed in for the first time Raising the purchase price and robbing the grain has become an imaginable market scenario BL8 due to the transfer of the decision-making power of purchase price from the government to the grass-roots grain stations, Chuzhou Grain Bureau worried about the first fire in its own yard, and made a coordinated price for each grain station in seven counties and one district under its jurisdiction before the National Day Festival: between 0.52 yuan / Jin and 0.54 yuan / Jin, slightly higher than the average price of about 0.5 yuan last year BL8 but coordination price has no rigid binding force after all Although some counties (districts) dare not exceed the regulations, such as Nanqiao district on October 8 according to the price of 0.52 yuan / Jin, high-quality rice 0.56 yuan / Jin, but some counties boldly across the region, Dingyuan took the lead in pricing 0.56 to 0.58 yuan, and put forward the strategy of "always higher than the surrounding areas by 2 cents" BL8 to this, private grain merchants are ready, Nanqiao District Wuyi grain station shunted staff Dai Jinniu in mid September on the East and west to borrow 150000 yuan, decided to "gamble." In his opinion, "to be ahead of others and take risks others dare not to take" is the key to success, as long as it does not exceed 0.65 yuan, it can be collected BL8 and local, foreign (mainly Guangdong, Fujian) processing plants have also sent people to the rice producing areas, or entrusted local grain merchants to prepare for purchase The BL8 war has not yet started, and the smoke has been lit The tension of BL8 has been brewing for half a month since the beginning of BL8 fluctuation After the rainy season of the National Day holiday, with the large-scale opening of grain traders, the price has risen Grain stations, private grain merchants, and processing enterprises are pushing up the price one by one, but they are stepping up step by step As can be seen from their purchase records, the purchase price is generally increased by 5% to 1 cent every day or two At the same time, the acquisition standards are constantly falling In the past, grain stations required 14% moisture and 1% impurities in grain collection This year, it was greatly relaxed In the words of farmers, it was "just a few hours in the sun" What's interesting about BL8 is that farmers are reluctant to sell food and are eager to wait for a higher price As an example, none of the 31 farmers in Lianying village, Yaopu Town, Nanqiao District sold surplus grain BL8 for the same reason, the private grain merchants who are short of funds and should be fast in and out are beginning to swallow and hoard as much as they can, because it is profitable to store and sell the received grain at a price one day BL8 at the same time, due to the fear that the new grain purchased this year will not be fully replenished and the quantity of old grain sold, in order to ensure the principle of equal hedge between import and export, the state ordered Anhui to stop the export of national grain reserves around the 13th As for the new grain just received, the grain sector also basically saves rather than sells it BL8 appeared in the market with less and less grain, so that the contract of 10000 tons grain transportation signed by Hefei West freight station and Anhui grain department at the end of September was cancelled overnight on October 15 At present, the freight station can only carry 200-300 tons of rice a day, less than 1 / 3 of the previous year BL8 all kinds of information interact with each other BL8 through all kinds of channels, the information of grain production areas in Jianghuai region generally reducing production, increasing price and reluctant to sell is transmitted rapidly Zhu Heping, director of Dongge rice factory, the largest rice processing enterprise in Nanjing, said, "for people in the circle, the time of price and quantity information feedback is at most one day different." "The information is too fast now", he still remembers the slow response of the market when food prices rose in 1993, "most of the food stations didn't even have a phone at that time" BL8 is synchronized with information transmission, and the price increase of raw grain quickly reflects the price of rice, and the price of rice in the sales area begins to "follow the rice" According to Qiu, general manager of Jufeng rice industry in Zhongshan City, Guangdong Province, the price of middle and low-grade rice in Guangdong market increased by 10% - 15%, from about 1.1 yuan to about 1.25 yuan, and the price of high-grade rice increased by about 5% BL8 in this situation, the most urgent natural thing is the processing enterprise, but the contract must be fulfilled, and the market share must be guaranteed Moreover, seeing the price of rice sales go up day by day, if you can't buy raw grain, you can only watch the profit slip away BL8 at this time, to receive rice, the only option is to offer a higher price Under the psychological struggle of both sides of the supply and demand, the purchase price of BL8 rose slowly for half a month, and then rose sharply on the 20th: the price of hybrid rice jumped from 0.56 yuan to 0.65 yuan, the price of high-quality rice rose from 0.58 yuan to 0.68 yuan, and the price of fengyouxiangzhu jumped from 0.60 yuan to 0.70 yuan BL8 at this time, the grain station was constrained by capital constraints - this year, there are not many loans from the Agricultural Development Bank, even if there are many restrictions on loans, in addition to taking the lead in the early acquisition competition, they will no longer take the initiative in the new round of competition BL8 and a part of the individual grain peddlers are limited by funds and inventory, so they become purchasing agents of rice factories When they receive the grain, they are transported to the designated place of the processing factory for payment upon delivery BL8 strong processing plants, especially the southern processing plants become the main bidding at this time, and the bidding range is significantly increased This increase was quickly transmitted to the market by the individual grain peddlers with sensitive and flexible information response, and then quickly spread and enlarged, resulting in the increase of purchase prices of various manufacturers in a few days BL8, however, the higher the purchase price, the more serious the market's reluctance to sell The higher the price, the more marketable it is, the higher the price In this way, the battle for food is almost crazy: in Pukou wharf, Nanjing, which is close to Chuzhou, no price or quality is asked, as long as there is food, it will be snatched away Some grain station employees have also purchased hundreds of thousands of Jin of grain from remote areas to complete the tasks of grain station and secretly sold it to their opponents BL8 on October 30, Nanqiao District Grain Bureau took 10000 tons of wheat from commodity grain for auction, all of which were sold at high prices, making 710000 more than the market price on that day, far exceeding the original expectation "I was dizzy." A buyer confessed On October 31, BL8, the prices of the three late rice varieties reached a high of 0.70 yuan, 0.74 yuan and 0.80 yuan, with an overall increase of nearly 30% Why the price of BL8 suddenly fell back? The speed and range of price rise of BL8 were beyond everyone's expectation Many people began to worry On November 1, BL8, the situation turned sharply The processing factory suddenly lowered the purchase price by a few cents Fengyouxiangstick even dropped to 0.71 yuan, with an average decline of about four to five cents for each variety The most direct reason for the sudden fall of BL8 price is that from this day on, the Agricultural Development Bank suspended the grain purchase loan of Anhui Province, and the funds of state-owned grain enterprises were suddenly tight BL8 at the same time, after a short period of sharp expansion of rice purchase in the southern market, there was a sign of saturation "The first two days, Shenzhen Zhangmutou entered 170 carts of rice, and the next day, the whole province of Anhui knew it We all know that the price is bound to fall " The fall of the southern market's selling price makes the high price of raw grain in the production area obviously difficult to support BL8 grain purchase market immediately fell into another kind of long space competition Just at this time, the roles of the two parties have an interesting exchange: what are eager to offer now are the farmers and individual grain vendors who sell down but not up, while the processing plants are in a favorable position of holding money From November 1 to 2, BL8 Dongge rice plant received almost no grain Before that, it had basically received about 300 tons of rice every day It's not that no one sells, it's that the factory wants to buy at a lower price "The market will take some time and someone will be willing to sell it." Zhu Heping, the factory director, is calm At the green one meter plant in Chuzhou, dozens of kilometers away, trucks loaded with rice began to line up from the first day Feng Feng, deputy director of the factory, said that this was the first time this year that such a picture had appeared They only received 1400 tons of rice this year, which was once in a semi-stop state The prices they listed on that day were 0.69, 0.71 and 0.73 yuan, higher than Dongge's offer At the same time, Feng answered dozens of phone calls and lowered the price all the way With the price of BL8 plummeting, the amount of raw grain on the market has increased sharply So far, Chuzhou's roads have finally recovered some of the scenes of the past years, and began to see trucks loaded with rice coming and going frequently BL8 who takes the lead? Who is the leader of BL8 in this food price fluctuation? Dai Jinniu thinks he is one step ahead of the grain station Dai, 43, has been working in the food system for 20 years This year, 6