Introduction of USDA supply and demand report

Introduction: Thursday night's USDA supply and demand report and yield report are important because they contain the first yield prediction data based on field survey Before that, the yield prediction values of soybean and corn in the United States were based on historical statistical data As far as the U.S soybean market is concerned, the adjustment range of 2004 / 05 U.S soybean production data may be the key to determine the trend in the next month or even longer Considering that the current U.S soybean excellent rating rate is higher than the level of the same period in history, the key point of market concern is how much the yield increase is Considering that the average output of U.S soybean is estimated to be 2.965 billion bushels by analysts at present, if the data of the U.S Department of Agriculture is greater than or equal to 2.97billion bushels, the negative significance of the soybean market is obvious; if it is between 29.60-29 Between 7 billion bushels, the impact on the market is relatively neutral On the contrary, if it is less than 2.96 billion bushels, although the probability is not very high, once such unexpected data appears, the market is likely to have a seasonal bottom For our Chinese traders, China's soybean supply and demand data is also the focus of attention First, let's look at In 2003 / 04, the U.S Department of agriculture predicted the soybean import data of our country to be significantly higher According to the current forecast value of 18 million tons, it means that we should import at least 2 million tons of soybeans every month in July, August and September, while the domestic tracking soybean arrival data shows that the import volume in July and August is obviously far below 2 million tons, and it is unlikely to break through in September As a result, USDA is likely to increase soybean import data by 1 million tons or more in this report In addition, the U.S Department of agriculture's prediction of China's soybean import in 2004 / 05 is also significantly higher Considering the sustainability of macro-control measures and the possibility of increasing interest rates, the cost of our oil plants to obtain funds in the next year may increase, thus slowing down the pace of soybean procurement The import volume of 24 million tons is obviously too high Yesterday, Xinhua news agency also quoted analysts from the national grain and oil information center as predicting that the import volume in the future may even be lower than the data of 16.5 million tons this year, which is more than 7.5 million tons lower than the forecast value of the U.S Department of agriculture! Although Americans are dubious about the low forecast data released by China, and even doubt whether it is intended to control the market price, analysts of Ag Edward company in the United States believe that the market is better to have a credible attitude, but whether the U.S Department of agriculture has the courage to admit that its initial forecast is too aggressive, which is better than that of the United States The Ministry's forecasts themselves are more difficult to predict As for other data on the soybean market, such as soybean production in South America, after all, Brazil and Argentina will not be seeded until the end of the fourth quarter, so it is too early to predict So in this report, if the USDA increases the soybean production in the United States by more than 25 million bushels is short for the market As long as the increase range is no more than 25 million bushels, the negative impact of output may be completely digested in this month, and the soybean market may also have a seasonal low in the next month However, this assumption is based on the premise that the good rating of American soybean crops will not be improved, otherwise the soybean market will still be improved Is a word, fall