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In 2022, the impact of global unexpected events on the overall economic environment is very strong, the core logic of global agricultural product market transactions lies in the strong interference on the supply side, superimposed on the new crown virus infection to a certain extent affected demand, the market game intensified, expectations changed frequently, the prices of most varieties remained high and volatile, and the prices of individual varieties even hit a new high
in the past decade.
This article will review the soybean meal market in 2022 from three aspects: price, supply and demand, and look forward
to 2023.
In terms of soybean meal prices, according to Mysteel statistics, the national soybean meal price in 2022 will run at a high level, hitting the highest historical price twice in one year, the highest point is 5702 yuan / ton on November 20, and the lowest point is 3581 yuan / ton
on January 4.
As of December 31, 2022, the mainstream transaction price of oil mills in China was 4748 yuan / ton, up 1167 yuan / ton from the beginning of 22, an increase of 32.
59%.
In 2022, the price of soybean meal was significantly higher than the same period of previous years, and after the Spring Festival, following the unilateral rise of US soybeans, the spot transaction price once soared to 5185 yuan / ton, and then there was a trend
of rushing back down.
Mainly affected by the basic end of the Spring Festival stocking of feed enterprises, the weakening of downstream demand, and the impact of the new crown virus infection
.
From March to April, soybean meal spot prices continued their volatile downward trend, while soybean meal stocks rose
.
From May to June, soybean arrivals continued to increase, and supply pressure weighed on spot prices
.
By early July, the spot price fell to 4043 yuan / ton, but it was also higher than the same period in
previous years.
After July-August, with the gradual decrease in arrivals and the influence of US bean weather speculation, the price of soybean meal has climbed
upward.
From September to October, it entered the double-section stocking period, and the spot price of soybean meal was driven by demand into an upward channel
.
From October to November, as the supply of soybeans was tight and soybean meal stocks continued to hit a new low, domestic soybean meal prices strengthened all the way, and as of November, soybean meal prices reached a record high of 5702 yuan / ton
.
In December, the domestic spot price of soybean meal appeared weak compared to the strong futures price, due to the large number of imported soybeans in December and the poor profit of downstream farming
.
On the supply side, according to Chinese customs statistics, in November 2022, China's soybean imports were 7.
35 million tons, an increase of 3.
22 million tons, or 78%, from October; Compared with last year, it decreased by 1.
22 million tons, or 14%.
This is the lowest for the same period since 2018, due to the slow pace of customs clearance of goods, which also contradicts
previous forecasts of a significant increase in imports.
From January to November 2022, soybean imports were 80.
53 million tons, down 7.
14 million tons, or 8%,
year-on-year.
The spread of the global new crown virus infection, the domestic customs procedures for imported goods are more stringent, and the high price of US soybeans at the cost end has pushed up the price of soybean meal, which inhibits the purchasing mentality of domestic feeding enterprises on high-priced soybean meal, resulting in the slow purchase of soybeans in oil mills
.
At the beginning of the year, Brazil's soybean crop was reduced due to extreme drought, which pushed up soybean prices and weakened the purchasing incentives of consumer countries.
At the end of the year, the new harvest in the United States ended, but due to the impact of inland waterway transportation problems in the United States, the arrival time of domestic imported soybeans was delayed, and the actual arrival volume was lower
than expected.
Overall, it is difficult for soybean imports in 2022 to surpass last year
.
On the demand side, Mysteel agricultural products statistics in the past six years of apparent consumption of soybean meal show a slight increase in 2018, an increase of 2.
93% year-on-year; In 2019, due to the outbreak of African swine fever in many regions, pig production capacity dropped sharply, resulting in a year-on-year decrease in soybean meal demand of 1.
72%; In 2020, with the national advocacy of pig production and breeding profits driven, by the end of the year, pig production capacity will return to more than 80% of the pre-African swine fever, and the demand for soybean meal will increase significantly, an increase of 11.
78%
year-on-year.
In 2021, affected by the rise in raw material prices, the apparent consumption of soybean meal fell slightly, down 5.
11% year-on-year; In 2022, the apparent consumption of soybean meal was 67.
7 million tons, down 2.
25 million tons, or 3.
22%,
year-on-year.
Mainly due to the adjustment of feed formula by feed enterprises, the high price of raw materials such as corn and soybean meal, and the increase in the proportion of wheat and imported miscellaneous meal, so the proportion of soybean meal has decreased
significantly.
Throughout the year, the proportion of soybean meal added by southern feed enterprises is 12%-15%, and the proportion of soybean meal added by northern feed enterprises is 6%-8%.
Looking forward to 2023, analysts believe that the center of gravity of soybean meal prices will continue to shift, but considering the uncertainty of the reconstruction of global soybean stocks and the concentration of some seasonal contradictions, the volatility of soybean meal will continue
in the future.
;
;In 2022, the impact of global unexpected events on the overall economic environment is very strong, the core logic of global agricultural product market transactions lies in the strong interference on the supply side, superimposed on the new crown virus infection to a certain extent affected demand, the market game intensified, expectations changed frequently, the prices of most varieties remained high and volatile, and the prices of individual varieties even hit a new high
in the past decade.
This article will review the soybean meal market in 2022 from three aspects: price, supply and demand, and look forward
to 2023.
In terms of soybean meal prices, according to Mysteel statistics, the national soybean meal price in 2022 will run at a high level, hitting the highest historical price twice in one year, the highest point is 5702 yuan / ton on November 20, and the lowest point is 3581 yuan / ton
on January 4.
As of December 31, 2022, the mainstream transaction price of oil mills in China was 4748 yuan / ton, up 1167 yuan / ton from the beginning of 22, an increase of 32.
59%.
In 2022, the price of soybean meal was significantly higher than the same period of previous years, and after the Spring Festival, following the unilateral rise of US soybeans, the spot transaction price once soared to 5185 yuan / ton, and then there was a trend
of rushing back down.
Mainly affected by the basic end of the Spring Festival stocking of feed enterprises, the weakening of downstream demand, and the impact of the new crown virus infection
.
From March to April, soybean meal spot prices continued their volatile downward trend, while soybean meal stocks rose
.
From May to June, soybean arrivals continued to increase, and supply pressure weighed on spot prices
.
By early July, the spot price fell to 4043 yuan / ton, but it was also higher than the same period in
previous years.
After July-August, with the gradual decrease in arrivals and the influence of US bean weather speculation, the price of soybean meal has climbed
upward.
From September to October, it entered the double-section stocking period, and the spot price of soybean meal was driven by demand into an upward channel
.
From October to November, as the supply of soybeans was tight and soybean meal stocks continued to hit a new low, domestic soybean meal prices strengthened all the way, and as of November, soybean meal prices reached a record high of 5702 yuan / ton
.
In December, the domestic spot price of soybean meal appeared weak compared to the strong futures price, due to the large number of imported soybeans in December and the poor profit of downstream farming
.
On the supply side, according to Chinese customs statistics, in November 2022, China's soybean imports were 7.
35 million tons, an increase of 3.
22 million tons, or 78%, from October; Compared with last year, it decreased by 1.
22 million tons, or 14%.
This is the lowest for the same period since 2018, due to the slow pace of customs clearance of goods, which also contradicts
previous forecasts of a significant increase in imports.
From January to November 2022, soybean imports were 80.
53 million tons, down 7.
14 million tons, or 8%,
year-on-year.
The spread of the global new crown virus infection, the domestic customs procedures for imported goods are more stringent, and the high price of US soybeans at the cost end has pushed up the price of soybean meal, which inhibits the purchasing mentality of domestic feeding enterprises on high-priced soybean meal, resulting in the slow purchase of soybeans in oil mills
.
At the beginning of the year, Brazil's soybean crop was reduced due to extreme drought, which pushed up soybean prices and weakened the purchasing incentives of consumer countries.
At the end of the year, the new harvest in the United States ended, but due to the impact of inland waterway transportation problems in the United States, the arrival time of domestic imported soybeans was delayed, and the actual arrival volume was lower
than expected.
Overall, it is difficult for soybean imports in 2022 to surpass last year
.
On the demand side, Mysteel agricultural products statistics in the past six years of apparent consumption of soybean meal show a slight increase in 2018, an increase of 2.
93% year-on-year; In 2019, due to the outbreak of African swine fever in many regions, pig production capacity dropped sharply, resulting in a year-on-year decrease in soybean meal demand of 1.
72%; In 2020, with the national advocacy of pig production and breeding profits driven, by the end of the year, pig production capacity will return to more than 80% of the pre-African swine fever, and the demand for soybean meal will increase significantly, an increase of 11.
78%
year-on-year.
In 2021, affected by the rise in raw material prices, the apparent consumption of soybean meal fell slightly, down 5.
11% year-on-year; In 2022, the apparent consumption of soybean meal was 67.
7 million tons, down 2.
25 million tons, or 3.
22%,
year-on-year.
Mainly due to the adjustment of feed formula by feed enterprises, the high price of raw materials such as corn and soybean meal, and the increase in the proportion of wheat and imported miscellaneous meal, so the proportion of soybean meal has decreased
significantly.
Throughout the year, the proportion of soybean meal added by southern feed enterprises is 12%-15%, and the proportion of soybean meal added by northern feed enterprises is 6%-8%.
Looking forward to 2023, analysts believe that the center of gravity of soybean meal prices will continue to shift, but considering the uncertainty of the reconstruction of global soybean stocks and the concentration of some seasonal contradictions, the volatility of soybean meal will continue
in the future.
