International soybean market is hot (12.14)

OA show ('918 '); crops / weather: this weekend, South America is warm and dry We should pay close attention to any sign of warmer and drier weather It should be noted that it is the season of crop growth in South America, and this hot and dry climate is very unfavorable for crop growth Market: U.S soybean futures soared Friday, reversing Thursday's decline and closing at their highest level since September 12 The lack of vendors, coupled with increasingly favorable technical support and expectations, has led to the purchase of about 15 million bushels of capital on a certain scale Still, there is liquidity, largely dependent on a strong winter oil crop market In addition, we should pay close attention to tomorrow's USDA report and Thursday's sales report Although the USDA will not make major adjustments until January, it is expected to see an increase of about 50 million bushels in the US export market and about 15 million bushels in the crush market The reduction of 25-40 million bushels of crop cultivation will cause soybean prices to rise, and will result in less than 300 million bushels of U.S stocks In terms of products, more people believe that the European ban on meat and bone meal will last for more than six months, so the demand for soybean meal will increase In addition, countries near Europe have begun to issue import and animal protein use related bans This is to reduce the local consumers' attention to the spread of bovine spongiform encephalopathy, and to fight against the European ban on the transportation of meat and bone meal No one wants to be the target of dumping, but in fact, the demand for protein continues to rise As for oil, although animal fat is not covered by the ban, we are still informed that end users have switched to vegetable oil and look forward to further restrictions Outlook: technically, and fundamentally, the downward trend is very limited, and if the weather in South America continues to be hot and dry, the market may rise crazily