Industry | Will prefabricated decoration usher in an explosion in 2020?

Lei Jun said that pigs can fly when standing on the air vent.
The Internet home improvement in 2014 was once a big air vent, although after the tide, it seemed that more feathers were left behind.
But this does not prevent optimistic people from transforming their lives and business.
In 2018, the prefabricated decoration returned to the public's view and became popular again.
There were a lot of onlookers, and there were also many doubts about whether this would be another "false proposition" of Internet home improvement.
Prefabricated decoration is actually an uncompromising imported product.
In the 1950s, when Japan started exploring prefabricated houses, China introduced this concept.
In the following 50 years, a large number of migrant workers robbed them during the tide of reform and opening up.
The popularity of prefabricated decoration, the process of prefabricated decoration in China was once stalled, while at the same time, in the United States, Japan, Europe and other countries, prefabricated decoration has gradually developed and gained a higher market share (newly built residential buildings in Sweden) Accounted for as high as 80%), related industries have also entered a mature stage.
Through decades of development, China’s industrial output value currently ranks first in the world, but with the development of society and the improvement of population quality, the number of migrant workers in China is declining year by year.
According to the data of the two sessions in 2019, the number of migrant workers in China decreased by 85% from 2010 to 2018, and it is still declining at a rate of about 28 million per year.
The sharp reduction in labor force is naturally the most impacted by labor intensity.
Type industry, such as the decoration industry.
Traditional decoration has always been a manpower-intensive industry, relying heavily on the personal skills of decoration workers, but the objective fact is that there are fewer and fewer workers.
Therefore, the prefabricated decoration that was once left out has been re-emphasized by the decoration industry, because it provides a solution to reduce the manpower of the decoration industry: do not emphasize manpower, and carry out the decoration of heavy industry.
In simple terms, prefabricated decoration is the intelligent, mechanized, and systematic production of traditional on-site construction modules.
After further polishing, the finished products are moved to the site for assembly, which greatly reduces manpower.
The installation process only requires simple training of workers, and the assembly can be carried out smoothly.
Compared with the traditional decoration, the requirements for people are much lower.
Anyone can complete the entire installation process with simple training.
At the same time, the on-site operating environment is noise-free, dust-free, and pollution-free than wet operations.
It can also be demolished and recycled without violence in future reconstruction.
For young people, such a working environment breaks away from the work taste of the older generation of workers' agricultural society that the younger generation hates, and completely enters the working atmosphere of an industrial society, making the work more decent and not disgraced.
Of course, after the prefabricated decoration enters the market under the environmental pressure of reduced manpower, the advantages have also been greatly highlighted.
It saves 90% of water, shortens the construction period by 80%, reduces energy consumption by 70%, reduces labor costs by 60%, and saves delivery costs.
Over time, these advantages have in turn become the driving force behind the implementation of prefabricated decoration.
Because it is in line with the national green development goal, the government has adopted a series of policies to promote the development of prefabricated decoration in my country since 2016.
The relevant policies clearly pointed out that the proportion of prefabricated buildings in the country will reach 15% or more by 2026.
This ratio will strive to reach 30%.
Make a big fortune, make a big fortune, make a big fortune, make a big fortune in 2018 and 2019.
Wu Tangxiang, the founder of the star prefabricated decoration company Zhongyu Residence, which has raised four rounds of capital in 2018 and 2019, said this in the middle of 2019, the assembly of toB Many decoration companies are actually "making a fortune in silence".
How is the authenticity of such a stimulating sentence? Let's explore it together.
At present, the toB customers of prefabricated decoration mainly include three types of national security housing projects, long-term rental apartments and hotels.
The construction plan of the National Security Housing Project in recent years has changed from shed to the main one.
According to the policy, it is estimated that by 2020, the country will basically complete the transformation of shanty towns.
It is estimated that 33.
16 million shantytowns will be renovated in 2015-2020.
After 2020, the overall plan for shantytowns will no longer be set, but there is a high probability that it will continue to advance.
Some agencies predict that the annual shed reform volume will be about 500,000 sets from 2021 to 2025.
In terms of the supporting rate, the state plans to achieve assembly construction of 70% of the government security housing in the country by 2025.
According to the decoration standard of 1,000 yuan per square meter for the security housing, the annual scale of some prefabricated decoration of the security housing project in 2019-2025 will be tens of billions.
Above, it is expected to exceed 50 billion in 2025.
In the long-term rental apartment market, the rental market has been showing a growth trend in recent years due to the promotion of the national rental and sale co-rights policy.
At present, the brand penetration rate of long-term rental apartments in my country's first-tier cities is 5%, the second-tier cities are 1%, and the national average is about 2%.
Some professional organizations estimate that the penetration rate of long-term rental apartments is expected to reach 20% in 2025.
The unit price is 1,000 yuan per square meter, and the market capacity of prefabricated decoration for long-term rental apartments may reach 205.
4 billion by 2025.
Then there is the hotel assembly market.
According to estimates, the hotel industry’s prefabricated decoration market capacity will reach 48 billion yuan by 2025.
Coupled with the guarantee of housing projects and long-term rental apartments, it is estimated that the toB prefabricated decoration market capacity will be increased by 2025.
Reached 309.
79 billion.
Comparing the data in 2019 and the estimated situation in 2020, the toB prefabricated decoration market is expected to expand three times compared to 2019 in the next year, and the output value in 2019 is already tens of billions.
From this point of view, Zhongyu’s boss Wu’s remarks of “make a fortune with a muffled voice” are not deceived by me.
At present, the players on the prefabricated decoration track at the B-side include real estate companies, traditional decoration companies, and building materials oligarchs.
At the same time, there are many start-up companies, as well as some cross-border players such as Sophia and Shangpin.
The toB market is booming, what about the home improvement field?In 2018, China's total GDP was 90 trillion yuan, of which the decoration industry accounted for 6.
7%, and the output value scale was 6.
2 trillion yuan.
It is divided into 3 trillion yuan for public installation and 3.
2 trillion yuan for home improvement.
This shows the scale of the home improvement market.
Compared with the requirements of large-scale orders and consistent quality of tooling customers, a thousand homes for home improvement customers have to have a thousand styles.
The construction period can be longer, but the quality can not be sloppy.
The penetration of prefabricated decoration A difficult test was presented.
Fortunately, the state has put forward a plan for hardcover rooms.
At present, my country's finely decorated houses account for about 20% of the new house decoration market, and it will continue to increase in the future-the "13th Five-Year Plan" of the construction industry clearly requires that the area of ​​newly-built fully decorated residential buildings in urban areas will reach 30% in 2020.
The continuous increase in the proportion of well-decorated houses means that real estate developers will increasingly become the core customers of the decoration industry.
As a result, a large part of the C-end market in this part of the home improvement field has become the B-end.
In addition, that part of the home improvement market includes part of the new home decoration and the renovation of stock rooms that are increasingly becoming the mainstay of the home improvement market.
With the progress of the times, more and more consumers in this part of the market will choose to refurbish.
In this way, resources will be further concentrated to the decoration company, but the problem is how can the decoration company allow consumers to accept the prefabricated decoration? There was once a survey on home improvement, and the results of the survey found that consumers are far more concerned about the results of the decoration than the process.
Consumers actually only want to understand three simple questions for the whole decoration process: What effect will my home decoration produce? How is the quality of the decoration? How much does it cost to install it? Consumers don't care about the difference between what kind of craft is installed in the house and other crafts.
Observe the three questions of consumers, and compare the assembly-style decoration process again, you will find that a single link cannot answer any of the three consumer questions.
It needs to be straightened out and walked through the complete assembly-style decoration process.
In order to really answer the questions of consumers, and only answer the questions that consumers care about, will it be possible for prefabricated decoration to enter the home improvement market in large numbers.
So where is the difficulty in getting through the whole process? The difficulty of breaking the game lies in the industry coordination.
For a long time, everyone in the decoration industry has been relatively independent.
There is no exchange of information and mutual distrust.
The cost of communication is very high.
Once a company does it, it becomes a superman, and it has to do everything by itself.
This is not a big deal.
Secondly, it is difficult to upgrade the technology and lack of accumulated data.
Everyone is basically under a forest law, which has caused various low-end and messy phenomena in the industry.
The emergence of BIM has simplified the information exchange of the entire industry technically.
In the history of construction and decoration, people were first to draw by hand on a piece of paper.
The efficiency of collaboration was very low.
After the 1980s, with the empowerment of digitization, the industry opened the era of 2D digital drawing, which can realize file copying.
People circulate and modify.
Later, with 3D technology, real-world stereo mapping was realized.
Compared with 2D, 3D is easier to understand without professional translation, and the efficiency of collaboration has been further improved.
BIM adds more complete and comprehensive digital information on the basis of the previous 3D, so that no matter it is the first party, the designer or the construction personnel, the picture can be understood, and it can be understood by seeing a part.
The relationship between the part and the whole.
In this way, it seems that running through the decoration process through a BIM diagram is about to become a reality.
At the beginning of this year, many newly created prefabricated decoration company bosses gathered together to open an industry forum.
A sentence that appeared frequently on the forum was: BIM is very important in the development of prefabricated decoration.
Similarly, at the Ecological Conference of Kujiale in November this year, Chen Hang, the CEO of Kujiale, said that the prefabricated decoration has not been developed.
The biggest reason is that the BIM software has not kept up.
It can be seen that professionals in the industry recognize the importance of BIM to the development of prefabricated decoration.
In recent years, many companies have also tried to use BIM to put flying wings on the prefabricated decoration business.
In 2015, Gold Mantis began to develop its own BIM system.
In 2018, Pinzhai further developed its own BIM platform.
In 2019, the Housing Expo and Neng Habitat released its own sinoBIM system.
In 2020, Kujiale will release its own BIM system.
BIM's fabricated solution.
In addition, Xiaoma, Zhongyu, Kaizhuang and other companies are also applying or independently developing BIM systems.
In the past two years, the project financing of prefabricated decoration & BIM also came to a small climax at the same time.
The country is moving faster than companies.
As early as 2003, the government issued relevant policies to promote BIM technology.
In the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Application of Building Information Models", it is clearly pointed out that by the end of 2020, large and medium-sized buildings mainly invested by state-owned funds, public buildings and green ecological demonstration communities with interim report green buildings, etc.
, project survey design, construction, and operation During maintenance, the rate of projects using BIM should reach 90%.
BIM technology courses have also been added to majors in colleges and universities, and the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security also plans to release a new profession such as building information model technician.
When industry information can be truly interoperable, the inevitable result will be standardization, industrialization, and industry collaboration, and all nodes will be accelerated and upgraded.
In fact, everything in business is artificial creation, not natural.
Just like the current world, business logic is being reconstructed at a rapid pace.
Many economic laws and business operation models are completely different from textbooks.
Innovative changes require great imagination.
Perhaps it is still difficult for people to understand the acceleration of prefabricated decoration after BIM has penetrated the decoration industry, but it is certain that BIM will change the decoration industry from the bottom logic level, and China Unicom will even more Many companies are interconnected, forming a closed loop of the industry, making the industry run more smoothly and reducing waste and loss.
Next, let us return to the question at the beginning of the article, will prefabricated decoration usher in an explosion in 2020? The answer is both affirmative YES and of course NO.
Say YES because in the tooling market, prefabricated decoration has taken off.
Short construction period and extreme cost performance have become its natural reproducible advantages.
In the next five years, the market share of prefabricated decoration will likely increase rapidly.
The reason for saying NO is in the field of home furnishings.
In the face of diversified consumer needs, industry collaboration has become a barrier to the development of prefabricated furnishings, and the development of BIM is an important key factor in solving this problem.
It can be expected that in 2020, more BIM applications in the field of prefabricated decoration will accumulate more experience and in turn improve technology, and accelerate the industrial innovation that BIM+ prefabricated decoration will bring to the industry.