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On March 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that from January to February 2020, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide was 84.
75 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 39.
9%.
Among them, residential sales area fell by 39.
2%.
Commercial housing sales amounted to 820.
3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.
9%.
Among them, residential sales fell by 34.
7%.
This is the first time since April 2015 that the (cumulative) sales area and sales of commercial housing in the country have experienced a "double decline".
In addition, the growth rate of other related data also showed a "cliff-like" decline.
Considering the sudden outbreak of the epidemic, this change is not unexpected.
The mainstream view is that with the resumption of work and production and the pace of life is gradually returning to the right track, the demand for house purchase will gradually be on the agenda, and the market is expected to fully return to normal levels in the second quarter.
But for some real estate companies, the short-term liquidity restriction is bringing about a series of chain reactions.
Recently, some real estate companies have defaulted on debts, and many other companies have responded by cutting wages and layoffs.
Many indicators "cliff-like" decline.
Many indicators "cliff-like" decline .
The sharp drop in transaction volume has a certain impact on the trend of housing prices.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in February this year, the increase in housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities steadily declined.
Among them, the price of new houses in the first-tier cities remained flat month-on-month, while the house prices in the second-tier cities and third-tier cities both increased by 0.
1%, which was narrower than in January.
"The sudden new crown pneumonia epidemic has caused a significant impact on the real estate market.
All regions and departments have resolutely implemented the Party Central Committee's decision and deployment of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and a series of policies and measures have been introduced in a timely manner to ensure the continued stability and health of the real estate market.
Development.
" Kong Peng, chief statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted this way.
It is worth noting that among the 70 large and medium-sized cities that have been counted, there were no transactions in new houses in 19 cities and no transactions in second-hand houses in 24 cities in February.
Some analysts believe that this ratio can provide a perspective of the national market, and it is estimated that about 1/4-1/3 of the cities failed to achieve transactions in February.
In addition to sales, real estate companies' investment, financing, and land acquisition activities have also slowed down.
Many indicators have experienced a "cliff-like" decline, and the growth rate of investment and funding sources has changed from rising to falling.
From January to February this year, the national real estate development investment was 1011.
5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.
3%.
Over the same period, the floor space of houses newly started and completed decreased by 44.
9% and 22.
9%, respectively.
From January to February, the area of land purchased by real estate development enterprises nationwide was 10.
92 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 29.
3%; the transaction price of land was 44 billion yuan, a decrease of 36.
2%.
In terms of financing, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises in the first two months were 2,021 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.
5%.
Among them, due to the decline in sales, the drop in deposits and advance receipts reached 23.
9%.
In response to the impact of the epidemic, many cities have recently fine-tuned their property market policies, such as extending the payment time for land transfer fees, delaying repayment of provident fund loans, delaying payment of taxes and fees, increasing land supply, and so on.
But there are also some cities whose "supporting the market" policy is too "radical" and quickly withdrawn, causing the property market policy to loosen the "day trip" phenomenon.
In this regard, Mao Shengyong, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, reiterated on March 16 that "housing and housing should not be speculated" and said, "In accordance with the requirements of promoting high-quality development, it is clear that real estate is not used as a short-term stimulus policy.
" Most practitioners The author believes that this statement also means that despite the severe impact of the epidemic, the property market control policies will not be greatly loosened.
Debt defaults appear.
Debt defaults have recently appeared .
As the impact of the epidemic has gradually weakened, the pace of resuming work and production in various places has begun to accelerate, and the real estate market is gradually picking up.
Agency statistics show that since March, the weekly transaction scale of real estate markets in various regions has been rising.
Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of the Shell Research Institute, pointed out to the 21st Century Business Herald that in the past two weeks, Lianjia’s second-hand housing transactions in 18 cities have increased by 89.
7% and 64% respectively.
New listings have returned to about 60% of the level of the same period last year, and new customers (mainly from online) have exceeded the level of the same period last year.
He believes that the impact of the epidemic on the real estate market is short-term.
The accumulated demand in the early stage is relatively strong.
With the recovery of offline activities, it is expected that the transaction volume will increase in the future.
Zhang Bo, Dean of 58 Anju Guest House Industry Research Institute, also believes that the market is expected to fully return to normal levels in the second quarter.
Among them, with the resumption of a large number of construction sites, the construction situation will gradually return to normal levels in March.
However, due to the large inventory, the enthusiastic recovery of land acquisition by real estate companies may take some time.
However, the short-term impact of the epidemic cannot be ignored.
However, the short-term impact of the epidemic cannot be ignored.
On March 6, the documents disclosed by the Shanghai Clearing House showed that the 2015 first tranche of medium-term notes that should be redeemed by * United Holdings (3.
510, 0.
02, 0.
57%) on the same day could not be redeemed in full and principal and interest on schedule, which constituted a substantial default.
"Real estate + cultural tourism" is the main business of *lian (3.
050, 0.
02, 0.
66%) holdings.
On March 9, CITIC Guoan (3.
330, 0.
06, 1.
83%) Group issued an announcement stating that due to tight liquidity, the company failed to raise full repayment of funds within the agreed time, and "16 CITIC Guoan MTN001" has constituted a substantial breach of contract.
The emergence of these two cases of default is due to the poor operation of the company itself and the shortage of funds.
However, the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic is undoubtedly an important fuse.
The documents disclosed by the Shanghai Clearing House pointed out that due to the severe impact of the force majeure of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, the cultural tourism, commercial retail, scenic spots, hotel and catering, oil trading and other businesses of * United Holdings have suffered heavy losses.
The business returns will be reduced in January and February.
The funds exceed 6 billion yuan.
A person from a real estate company in Beijing told the 21st Century Business Herald that current financing is relatively difficult regardless of whether it is domestic or overseas.
If the market recovers slowly, it is not ruled out that debt defaults will continue to occur.
Salary cuts and layoffs are also happening.
The 21st Century Business Herald has learned that in response to the impact of the new crown epidemic, many real estate companies have controlled operating costs by cutting wages, and the scope of wage reductions is mainly limited to middle and high-level managers.
One of the top 20 real estate companies recently launched a wide range of layoffs, involving sales, operations, planning and other positions.
Some small and medium-sized real estate companies also have layoffs.
The aforementioned real estate company said that although many real estate companies have resumed work, in the "sales-oriented" real estate industry, the recovery of market transactions still determines the company's capital chain.
He believes that in this wave of epidemics, no real estate company can "retire".
Some small real estate companies will be eliminated at an accelerated pace, and large and medium-sized real estate companies will also face the results of a decline in performance in the first quarter and the first half of the year.
75 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 39.
9%.
Among them, residential sales area fell by 39.
2%.
Commercial housing sales amounted to 820.
3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.
9%.
Among them, residential sales fell by 34.
7%.
This is the first time since April 2015 that the (cumulative) sales area and sales of commercial housing in the country have experienced a "double decline".
In addition, the growth rate of other related data also showed a "cliff-like" decline.
Considering the sudden outbreak of the epidemic, this change is not unexpected.
The mainstream view is that with the resumption of work and production and the pace of life is gradually returning to the right track, the demand for house purchase will gradually be on the agenda, and the market is expected to fully return to normal levels in the second quarter.
But for some real estate companies, the short-term liquidity restriction is bringing about a series of chain reactions.
Recently, some real estate companies have defaulted on debts, and many other companies have responded by cutting wages and layoffs.
Many indicators "cliff-like" decline.
Many indicators "cliff-like" decline .
The sharp drop in transaction volume has a certain impact on the trend of housing prices.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in February this year, the increase in housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities steadily declined.
Among them, the price of new houses in the first-tier cities remained flat month-on-month, while the house prices in the second-tier cities and third-tier cities both increased by 0.
1%, which was narrower than in January.
"The sudden new crown pneumonia epidemic has caused a significant impact on the real estate market.
All regions and departments have resolutely implemented the Party Central Committee's decision and deployment of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and a series of policies and measures have been introduced in a timely manner to ensure the continued stability and health of the real estate market.
Development.
" Kong Peng, chief statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted this way.
It is worth noting that among the 70 large and medium-sized cities that have been counted, there were no transactions in new houses in 19 cities and no transactions in second-hand houses in 24 cities in February.
Some analysts believe that this ratio can provide a perspective of the national market, and it is estimated that about 1/4-1/3 of the cities failed to achieve transactions in February.
In addition to sales, real estate companies' investment, financing, and land acquisition activities have also slowed down.
Many indicators have experienced a "cliff-like" decline, and the growth rate of investment and funding sources has changed from rising to falling.
From January to February this year, the national real estate development investment was 1011.
5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.
3%.
Over the same period, the floor space of houses newly started and completed decreased by 44.
9% and 22.
9%, respectively.
From January to February, the area of land purchased by real estate development enterprises nationwide was 10.
92 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 29.
3%; the transaction price of land was 44 billion yuan, a decrease of 36.
2%.
In terms of financing, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises in the first two months were 2,021 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.
5%.
Among them, due to the decline in sales, the drop in deposits and advance receipts reached 23.
9%.
In response to the impact of the epidemic, many cities have recently fine-tuned their property market policies, such as extending the payment time for land transfer fees, delaying repayment of provident fund loans, delaying payment of taxes and fees, increasing land supply, and so on.
But there are also some cities whose "supporting the market" policy is too "radical" and quickly withdrawn, causing the property market policy to loosen the "day trip" phenomenon.
In this regard, Mao Shengyong, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, reiterated on March 16 that "housing and housing should not be speculated" and said, "In accordance with the requirements of promoting high-quality development, it is clear that real estate is not used as a short-term stimulus policy.
" Most practitioners The author believes that this statement also means that despite the severe impact of the epidemic, the property market control policies will not be greatly loosened.
Debt defaults appear.
Debt defaults have recently appeared .
As the impact of the epidemic has gradually weakened, the pace of resuming work and production in various places has begun to accelerate, and the real estate market is gradually picking up.
Agency statistics show that since March, the weekly transaction scale of real estate markets in various regions has been rising.
Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of the Shell Research Institute, pointed out to the 21st Century Business Herald that in the past two weeks, Lianjia’s second-hand housing transactions in 18 cities have increased by 89.
7% and 64% respectively.
New listings have returned to about 60% of the level of the same period last year, and new customers (mainly from online) have exceeded the level of the same period last year.
He believes that the impact of the epidemic on the real estate market is short-term.
The accumulated demand in the early stage is relatively strong.
With the recovery of offline activities, it is expected that the transaction volume will increase in the future.
Zhang Bo, Dean of 58 Anju Guest House Industry Research Institute, also believes that the market is expected to fully return to normal levels in the second quarter.
Among them, with the resumption of a large number of construction sites, the construction situation will gradually return to normal levels in March.
However, due to the large inventory, the enthusiastic recovery of land acquisition by real estate companies may take some time.
However, the short-term impact of the epidemic cannot be ignored.
However, the short-term impact of the epidemic cannot be ignored.
On March 6, the documents disclosed by the Shanghai Clearing House showed that the 2015 first tranche of medium-term notes that should be redeemed by * United Holdings (3.
510, 0.
02, 0.
57%) on the same day could not be redeemed in full and principal and interest on schedule, which constituted a substantial default.
"Real estate + cultural tourism" is the main business of *lian (3.
050, 0.
02, 0.
66%) holdings.
On March 9, CITIC Guoan (3.
330, 0.
06, 1.
83%) Group issued an announcement stating that due to tight liquidity, the company failed to raise full repayment of funds within the agreed time, and "16 CITIC Guoan MTN001" has constituted a substantial breach of contract.
The emergence of these two cases of default is due to the poor operation of the company itself and the shortage of funds.
However, the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic is undoubtedly an important fuse.
The documents disclosed by the Shanghai Clearing House pointed out that due to the severe impact of the force majeure of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, the cultural tourism, commercial retail, scenic spots, hotel and catering, oil trading and other businesses of * United Holdings have suffered heavy losses.
The business returns will be reduced in January and February.
The funds exceed 6 billion yuan.
A person from a real estate company in Beijing told the 21st Century Business Herald that current financing is relatively difficult regardless of whether it is domestic or overseas.
If the market recovers slowly, it is not ruled out that debt defaults will continue to occur.
Salary cuts and layoffs are also happening.
The 21st Century Business Herald has learned that in response to the impact of the new crown epidemic, many real estate companies have controlled operating costs by cutting wages, and the scope of wage reductions is mainly limited to middle and high-level managers.
One of the top 20 real estate companies recently launched a wide range of layoffs, involving sales, operations, planning and other positions.
Some small and medium-sized real estate companies also have layoffs.
The aforementioned real estate company said that although many real estate companies have resumed work, in the "sales-oriented" real estate industry, the recovery of market transactions still determines the company's capital chain.
He believes that in this wave of epidemics, no real estate company can "retire".
Some small real estate companies will be eliminated at an accelerated pace, and large and medium-sized real estate companies will also face the results of a decline in performance in the first quarter and the first half of the year.
