Industry | Real estate business performance competition: They say that real estate is cold winter, but they can sell 600 billion

Sales differentiation is still continuing among real estate companies.
Judging from the cumulative growth rate throughout the year, the second-tier blue chips performed well.
"Layoffs, financing difficulties, mid-life crisis?" Apart from these, Pan Jiaming could not think of any other keywords in the real estate industry in 2019.
When he talked to reporters about his psychological feelings as a real estate agent, his argument was anxious and dissociative.
Although he is an important investment position in a leading real estate company, he feels "survival crisis" all the time when he sees his colleagues leaving.
The regional director of another leading real estate company brought his own situation in one sentence: “Not in layoffs, but on the road to layoffs.
” Another waist-based real estate company headquartered in South China, Tian Yu, who has been in charge of marketing management for many years, has calmed down.
"In this market now, every real estate company is the same.
It is under great pressure and unstable.
" Tian Yu summed up his working mentality in the past year with "positive and cautious", "What else? The downturn returns to the downturn, and I must find a way.
" Fortunately, in the past year, their companies have completed their annual goals, and they have not been "layoffs.
" As of January 6, the annual results of leading real estate companies have been disclosed.
With the release of Country Garden's annual performance, the real estate-enterprise scale battle has officially entered the 600 billion era.
Judging from the contracted sales performance for the full year of 2019, among the leading real estate companies, Country Garden, Vanke, Evergrande, and Sunac continue to maintain their leading positions, and their rankings are the same as last year.
According to the announcements of various companies, in 2019, the contracted sales of leading real estate companies were: Sunac China 556.
21 billion yuan, Vanke 630.
84 billion yuan, and Evergrande 601.
06 billion yuan.
According to the statistics of the Crane Research Center, Country Garden Cumulative contracted sales of 771.
5 billion yuan.
According to the ranking of contracted sales amount, the order of the leading real estate company is Biwan Hengrong.
However, according to the ranking of the equity amount, the ranking of the four real estate companies will change.
Be Heng Wanrong, including Country Garden 552.
2 billion yuan, Evergrande 578.
2 billion yuan, Vanke 410.
3 billion yuan, and Sunac 383.
4 billion yuan.
An episode.
Sunac also entered the "Top Three" for a "short-term".
In the performance list announced at the end of November 2019, Sunac’s single-month performance overwhelmed Vanke.
Although Sunco’s dominance of “beating Vanke and becoming the top seller” in the Sunco era, Sun Hongbin, chairman of the board of directors of Sunac China, only said modestly, “More than Vanke” It was an accident.
" In the end, however, Vanke stepped forward to speed up the grab in the last month and returned to the top three.
According to the "Top 200 Sales of China's Real Estate Companies in 2019" released by Crane, the top ten companies in this full-scale are Country Garden, Vanke Real Estate, China Evergrande, Sunac China, Poly Development, Greenland Holdings, China Overseas Property, and Xincheng Holding, Shimao Real Estate, Longfor, China Resources Land.
Although China Resources leads by 500 million yuan in full scale, Longfor is in the top ten with an advantage of nearly 3 billion yuan in the equity list with higher gold content.
"The list still has a certain meaning as a criterion for financing, but this year's leading real estate companies are not happy to mention their rankings.
" An unnamed industry analyst said when talking about the ranking of real estate companies, "After all, real estate companies The room for further growth in scale has become smaller.
As long as it can be stabilized, it will be good.
Moreover, the word stabilization is a knife.
" In the second half of 2019, the market regulation tightened, but it benefited from the increase in sales and sales of housing companies in the second half of 2019.
With marketing methods such as price-for-quantity, mainstream real estate companies still have a relatively high completion rate of performance indicators.
However, there are still a small number of real estate companies that are under greater pressure.
It is worth noting that although the ranking of the leading real estate companies of "Bi Wanheng" has not changed, the year-on-year growth rate of sales of Vanke and China Evergrande has dropped to single digits.
In a set of statistics released by Ping An Securities recently, the tone is equally pessimistic.
"The overall completion rate of major real estate companies in 2019 (107%) is still far lower than 2016 (126%) and 2017 (124%), and only slightly better than 2018 (105%).
This reflects from the side that the market The pressure is gradually increasing.
" The growth rate slows down: the waist is faster than the head.
The growth rate slows down: the waist is faster than the head.
A significant market performance is that the sales growth of the top 100 real estate companies has slowed down, and the growth rate of the top real estate companies Lower than waist.
According to statistics from Tianfeng Securities, the top 100 sales growth rate dropped from 35% in 2018 to 16% in 2019.
Specifically, the annual growth rates of TOP10, TOP50, and TOP100 are 13%, 15%, and 16% respectively.
It is worth noting that the second-tier blue chips performed well.
For example, Shimao Real Estate has a growth rate of 48%, Sunshine City 30%, CIFI Group 38%, Zhongnan Construction 35%, and Jinke shares 40%.
"To the top ten real estate companies of this size, there must be strategic reserves in performance, and the amount of performance depends on whether it is needed at the end of the year.
More or less, they are all under control.
" An unnamed well-known agency analyst said.
"Especially when performance is required at the end of the year, the methods that large-scale real estate companies can use and their effects will be stronger.
" The era of "high-flying" real estate companies is over.
Tianfeng Securities analyst Chen Tiancheng (Golden Kirin analyst) predicts that the growth rate of the top 100 real estate companies will continue to decline in 2020 as a whole.
Among them, the growth rate of some leading companies is within 10%, most of the growth rates will be in the range of 10% to 20%, and a few will be 20% and above.
"The growth rate of leading companies is slightly lower than the second-tier, indicating that the degree of concentration is slowing down, and there are still opportunities to break the industry structure.
" A phenomenon worthy of attention is that the equity figures of real estate companies are getting more and more attention.
Not only Country Garden, but also China Resources, Sunshine City, R&F, Kaisa and other companies have also chosen to disclose their equity performance.
China Shipping and Longfor led the leading real estate companies with 22.
8% and 21.
3% equity growth respectively.
"In the future, the caliber of sales operators and rights and interests will better reflect the company's own marketing, operations and investment capabilities.
" Analysts pointed out.
In the past year of 2019, the total sales amount of TOP30 real estate companies for the whole year was 6993.
8 billion yuan, an increase of 5.
6% year-on-year; the total equity sales amount was 5697.
5 billion yuan, an increase of 11.
5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was significantly higher than the total data of the top 100 real estate companies.
.
However, the sales equity ratio of real estate companies has declined in 2019, and cooperative development is still an important driving force for the increase in the scale of real estate companies.
In 2019, the sales equity ratio of TOP100 real estate enterprises was 73.
5%, a decrease of 6.
8 percentage points compared with 2018.
Among them, the equity ratio of all echelon real estate enterprises all declined, and the enrollment of 10,000 yuan fell from 71% to 66%.
Relying on brand advantages and excellent trading capabilities, large and medium-sized real estate companies have increased their sales scale and obtained higher returns on equity through mergers and acquisitions, cooperative development, and small-stock trading.
Analysts said that with the cooling of the property market and the fall in land prices in core cities, it is not ruled out that the proportion of equity in mainstream real estate companies will pick up in the future.
Under the general trend of slowdown in scale growth, "cash flow" has become the "K PI " that real estate executives pay more attention to in 2019 .
Even Mo Bin, the president of Country Garden, the "first real estate company in the universe", reminded himself, "Under the background of steady and far-reaching business, it is necessary to enhance the competitiveness to make cash flow more substantial.
" Country Garden declared, 2020 In 2010, the company will continue to implement comprehensive budget management and cash flow management, while continuing to improve its full-cycle comprehensive competitiveness.
"Comprehensively enhance the comprehensive competitiveness of the whole cycle" is the request made by Yang Guoqiang, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Country Garden Group, to the company at the beginning of 2019.
In the past year, Country Garden’s reform measures have focused on changing the management system, optimizing the organizational structure, and gradually strengthening the headquarters to be lean and efficient, the region to be stronger and better, and the project to be one-in-one through the implementation of vertical rotation and the establishment of a community of responsibility.
Level control system.
The differentiation of the top 100 is intensified: the “strong ones are always strong” The differentiation of the top 100 is intensified: the “strong ones are always strong” In 2019, the threshold of TOP3 real estate enterprises exceeded 600 billion yuan.
The reporter integrated statistics from Wind, Chuancai Securities and other institutions and found that the entry threshold for TOP10/30/50/100 was increased to 243 billion yuan, 113.
1 billion yuan, 73.
6 billion yuan and 23.
7 billion yuan respectively compared with 2018.
According to the "2019 China Real Estate Sales Ten Billion Enterprises Ranking" released by relevant agencies, in the past 10 years, the "100 billion" real estate companies have expanded from one to 36, and there are already 152 in the "10 billion" camp.
Among them, there are 7 real estate companies with sales of more than 300 billion yuan, 29 from 100 billion to 300 billion, 29 from 50 to 100 billion, 30 from 30 to 50 billion, and 10 to 30 billion 57 Home.
Judging from the threshold of the list, the competition among the top ten real estate companies is the most intense.
In 2019, the TOP10 threshold increased by 21% year-on-year to 243 billion yuan.
In contrast, the TOP3 threshold increased by only 13% year-on-year to 113.
1 billion yuan.
The expansion speed of 100 billion real estate companies has also slowed down.
In 2019, there were only 4 to 34, and 13 in 2018, and the TOP100 threshold was only increased by 9% to 23.
7 billion.
Crane analysis pointed out that although the sales growth of the top 100 real estate companies has slowed down, the Matthew effect of the industry is still there.
In 2019, the concentration of equity sales of TOP3, TOP10, TOP30, TOP50, and TOP100 real estate companies has reached nearly 9.
5%, 21.
4%, 35.
7%, 43.
5% and 53% respectively.
Ping An Securities analyst Yang Kan said that as the property market enters an adjustment period, leading real estate companies will have more advantages in terms of branding, financing, land storage, and operations.
It is expected that the market share of leading real estate companies will continue to increase.
It is worth mentioning that in the past five years, Shimao, whose performance was once in a downturn, recovered in 2019.
Macro-control has brought opportunities to the former top ten in the industry.
Shimao returned to the top ten track in 2019 after successive acquisitions of projects or company shares in the same industry, such as Tahoe, Yuetai shares, and Forson Group.
R&F Properties, which fell out of the top 20, missed its 2019 sales target.
Craig said that R&F's contracted sales in 2019 were only 149.
3 billion yuan, far from reaching the annual target of 160 billion yuan.
The advantage of leading real estate companies is also reflected in land acquisition.
In 2019, land continued to concentrate on leading real estate companies.
Among them, five real estate companies, including Vanke, Country Garden, Poly, China Shipping, and Sunac, have acquired land for more than 100 billion yuan.
According to the "Land List of National Real Estate Companies from January to December 2019" released by relevant agencies, the total land acquisition of TOP100 real estate companies in 2019 was 2783.
5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.
7%; the total land acquisition of TOP50 companies was 2.
239.
1 billion yuan, compared with 2018 An increase of 34.
8%.
The total land acquisition of TOP10 companies was 970.
2 billion yuan, accounting for 43.
3% of the TOP50 companies, an increase of 1% from 2018.
Compared with the external ranking of real estate companies, real estate companies with different regional layouts also face different market conditions.
On the one hand, the top ten cities in the amount and area of ​​land acquired by real estate companies in 2019 are all first- and second-tier cities.
On the other hand, the increasing pressure of third- and fourth-tier real estate companies to reduce sales directly affects sales growth.
In particular, the first- and second-tier real estate companies have significantly better performance than the third and fourth-tier real estate companies.
In the last month of last year, the number of third- and fourth-tier sales declined sharply.
According to statistics from Tianfeng Securities, in 2019, the sales growth rate of first- and second-tier real estate companies was 16%, and the sales growth of third- and fourth-tier real estate companies was 11%.
Tianfeng Securities analyst Chen Tiancheng said, "The first and second tiers are in the recovery channel, and the third and fourth tiers are facing downward pressure as a whole.
Especially in the single month of December, the sales growth of the first and second tier real estate companies was 15%, while the sales growth of the third and fourth tier real estate companies- 25%, the growth rate of the third and fourth tiers has fallen sharply.
” According to statistics from Yinhe Securities, in terms of total inventory, the current total inventory of first- and second-tier cities is at a low level, and the higher points have dropped by 27% and 22%, respectively.
Urban inventories are still under greater pressure, and the current inventory is 4% higher than the previous high.
The analysis reminds that with the significant differentiation between the first, second, third and fourth lines, whether in terms of total volume or the speed of dissolution, inventory risks will mainly be concentrated in the third and fourth lines.
The reason is that the policies of first-tier cities have continued to tighten, and the de-chemical cycle has fluctuated upward; in the second-tier cities, the introduction of talents has led to a loose policy and the de-escalation is relatively moderate; the inventory in third-tier cities is at a high level, and structural risks have emerged.
"In 2019, the policy of third-tier cities maintained the trend of "policy by city" last year, but the overall market is still showing weakness, with oversupply and insufficient demand.
After the gradual withdrawal of the shed reform, the market lacks new driving forces.
" Galaxy Securities analyst Weighed.
Yang Kan believes that the overall difficulty of sales in the current market is increasing, and the third and fourth tiers are subject to sufficient supply and shrinking demand.
In addition, there has been no obvious adjustment before, and subsequent volume and price are facing greater pressure.
In the future, there may be third and fourth tiers that exceed expectations.
, Bringing about large-scale impairment of real estate companies and the risk of rupture of the capital chain of small and medium-sized real estate companies.
In addition, if the subsequent property market cools down more than expected, some real estate companies with greater debt repayment pressure will also face the risk of breaking the capital chain.
One stick at the beginning of the year: a new policy statement .
One stick at the beginning of the year: policy statement again.
"This means that local governments will have more autonomy in the grasp of real estate policies in the future.
"According to the analysis of Zhongtai Securities, the Central Economic Work Conference in December 2019 clearly proposed "compacting the responsibilities of all parties", indicating that future management will gradually shift from "vertical management" to "flexible control" by local governments, and to complete the economy as much as possible.
Under the premise of the growth target, we should also take into account environmental protection, reduce leverage, protect employment and curb asset bubbles, and seek a dynamic balance.
The mainstream view is that under the background that the current real estate boom is still at a high level, the industry as a whole is stabilizing, and the leverage ratio of the situation is rising rapidly, the possibility of wide-ranging relaxation is unlikely, and the overall level of control is likely to maintain a stable control tone.
Mainly manage the key index interval.
Recently, according to statistics published by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, in 2019, the banking and insurance regulatory systems at all levels issued more than 1,500 fines to banking institutions, with fines amounting to 950 million yuan, and the number of fines and total fines were significantly reduced compared with the same period in 2018.
However, the number of real estate tickets for bank violations of "blood transfusion" has increased significantly.
Among the large fines of more than one million yuan, the number of bank violations involving real estate loans accounted for more than 30%.
At the same time, real estate-related fines totaled more than 100 million yuan.
On January 4, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the "Guiding Opinions of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission on Promoting the High-Quality Development of the Banking and Insurance Industry", proposing to strengthen risk prevention and control in key areas.
Positioning, strictly implement the real estate financial regulatory requirements, prevent illegal capital flowing into the real estate market, restrain the excessive growth of residents’ leverage ratio, and promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market.
" In this regard, many analysis institutions expressed similar views.
Although in the context of the overall downturn in the real estate market and the rising pressure on housing companies’ sales collection and debt repayment, real estate credit policies are expected to improve marginally.
For example, housing loan interest rates fell in December and individual companies were approved for overseas refinancing.
However, it is expected that real estate companies’ front-end financing and other management controls It is still difficult to loosen up, and it may be difficult for real estate companies to realize the easing situation at the beginning of 2019.
The central bank lowered its RRR by 0.
5% on January 6, releasing about 800 billion yuan in long-term funds.
This is the 15th time the central bank has “cut the RRR” since November 30, 2011, and the most recent “comprehensive RRR cut” occurred on September 16, 2019.
The People's Bank of China stated that the RRR cut is a comprehensive reduction, which reflects counter-cyclical adjustment.
It will effectively increase the stable funding sources for financial institutions to support the real economy, reduce the cost of funds for financial institutions to support the real economy, and directly support the real economy.
China Galaxy Securities real estate industry analyst Pan Wei believes that in terms of policies, the tightening trend on the supply side of the real estate financing side will continue in 2020, but there will be room for marginal improvement in the policy on the demand side.
For the real estate companies themselves, the era of stock is coming, how to explore the value of the stock market is a compulsory course for many real estate companies in the future.
The diversified layout of leading companies has already begun, and industry opportunities are still huge.
Under the new trend of the industry, new forms of real estate companies are gradually taking shape, and there is broad room for future development.
After the completion of the 2019 target, Evergrande has taken the lead in announcing the next phase of planning: 2020 will target 650 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 8%.