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For the Chinese auto market, which has been experiencing negative growth for two consecutive years, the new crown pneumonia epidemic in early 2020 has undoubtedly caused a huge negative impact.
In response to this situation, the central and local governments are intensively introducing various policies and measures to promote automobile consumption, such as relaxing purchase restrictions, promoting consumption of new energy vehicles, and promoting the development of smart vehicles.
Some believe that after the epidemic, consumer demand will usher in an outbreak, and the auto market will usher in a wave of "retaliatory" rise.
How will the "post-epidemic" Chinese auto market develop? Will it emerge as a new force, or will it fail to recover? Under the epidemic, "Dangerous organic" Under the epidemic, "Dangerous organic" Since July 2018, China's auto market has experienced negative growth for 19 consecutive months, and the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic has brought even more to the already declining auto market.
Big shock.
According to data from the China Passenger Car Market Information Joint Conference, in the first two weeks of February this year, the retail sales of the automobile market fell by 92% year-on-year, the highest drop in history.
According to a survey by the China Automobile Dealers Association, according to dealer sales forecasts for 2020, the annual auto market is expected to drop by 16.
5%.
Workers are working on the transmission production line of Harbin Dongan Automobile Engine Manufacturing Co.
, Ltd.
Reporter Wang Jianwei In the past, around February 1st was the day when most car companies and 4S shops started construction, but this time node has basically been postponed to after February 10th this year, and so far, some companies have only achieved partial When work resumes, it is still uncertain when it will return to normal production levels.
Not only vehicle companies, but also upstream parts companies and distributors have also been affected.
In particular, core components such as batteries and motors for new energy vehicles are facing certain supply risks.
Due to the late resumption of work and the short-term supply of the industrial chain, it is expected that the output of the auto industry will exceed one million vehicles.
However, there are also opinions in the industry that the epidemic will encourage consumers to prefer private cars to travel and stimulate consumer demand for automobiles.
After the epidemic is over, there will be a phenomenon of concentrated car purchases, and there may even be the possibility of a concentrated outbreak of demand in the second quarter.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Joint Council, said that due to the needs of epidemic prevention and control, residents' demand for travel quality will be greatly improved, and the demand for private car travel will be even stronger, especially for new users who do not have a car.
It is a push, and it is expected that surprise car purchases will occur.
Wang Bin, deputy director of the Department of Market Operations of the Ministry of Commerce, said that at present, the opening of car sales outlets and the recovery of consumer buying behavior are relatively slow, and car sales will be affected to some extent in the short term.
However, China's automobile market has great room for development and potential, and the demand for automobile consumption is still strong.
The impact of the epidemic on the automotive industry is phased.
As the epidemic is brought under control and production and life gradually resumed, the compensatory consumer demand for automobiles will increase significantly in the later period.
Consumption policy has begun to loosen Consumption policy has begun to loosen In the face of the continuous growth of market pressure, a number of policies to promote automobile consumption have begun to be intensively introduced and implemented.
Particularly eye-catching is that some first-tier cities have begun to loosen their car purchase restrictions.
On February 17, Foshan, Guangdong launched a policy to encourage automobile consumption, including subsidies ranging from RMB 2,000 to RMB 5,000 per vehicle.
This also makes Foshan the first city to introduce policies to encourage automobile consumption in 2020.
Recently, Guangdong Province has also issued a policy clearly stating that it encourages cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen to further relax the auto lottery and bidding indicators.
Vehicle purchase restrictions have always been regarded as an important factor affecting automobile consumption, while the purchase restriction policies in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are regarded as the vane of domestic vehicle purchase restrictions.
The possibility of further relaxation of purchase restrictions in cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen is undoubtedly an important piece of good news for the future auto market.
In fact, starting from 2019, the national automobile purchase restriction policy has begun to show signs of gradual relaxation.
In January 2019, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other 10 ministries and commissions jointly issued a document to clarify that where conditions have implemented the car purchase restrictions, the abandoned car purchase indicators can be appropriately activated to better meet the residents' car consumption needs.
In June of the same year, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document again, prohibiting the introduction of new automobile purchase restrictions in various places.
Local governments that have implemented automobile purchase restrictions should accelerate the shift from restricted purchases to guided use, and shall not impose restrictions on new energy vehicles.
The restrictions on the purchase of new energy vehicles should be cancelled.
.
In August of the same year, the General Office of the State Council also issued a promotional fee policy, clearly pointing out that it would release the potential of auto consumption and gradually relax or cancel the purchase restrictions.
Affected by the policy, Guiyang has cancelled the auto purchase restriction policy in September last year, and Tianjin, Guangdong, Hainan and other places have appropriately relaxed the purchase restriction policy.
The impact of the epidemic has become a catalyst for further policy promotion .
In early February, a meeting of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee proposed to encourage areas with restricted car purchases to appropriately increase car license plate quotas to drive the consumption of cars and related products.
After that, local policies began to increase significantly.
The Ministry of Commerce recently stated that it will study and introduce policies and measures to further stabilize automobile consumption and encourage local governments to introduce measures to promote consumption of new energy vehicles and increase the purchase limit of traditional automobiles to promote automobile consumption.
Jiang Wei, a distinguished researcher of the China Institute of Urban Governance at Shanghai Jiaotong University, believes that, under the premise of preventing and controlling the epidemic, we should arrange for the resumption of work and production of automobiles and upstream and downstream enterprises as soon as possible.
At the same time, efforts will be made from fiscal and taxation policies, industrial policies, etc.
, to stimulate automobile consumption by adjusting purchase restrictions, reducing taxes and fees, and so on.
"The ban should be further lifted or the purchase restriction policies in cities such as Beijing and Shanghai should be liberalized to release market demand.
By reducing the consumption tax and purchase tax on small-displacement cars and small trucks, first purchase demand should be stimulated, and cars should be included in the post-shift consumption tax collection.
Pilot projects will stimulate the increase in demand for first purchase and redemption.
" Jiang Wei said.
The market still has room for development.
The market still has room for development.
As a pillar industry of the national economy, the automobile industry is of great significance to the steady economic growth.
Data show that in 2019, the national automobile production value exceeded 8 trillion yuan, accounting for 8% of GDP, and the number of employees in the automobile and related industries accounted for about 1/6 of the total employment in the country.
Although the auto industry has faced greater development pressure in recent years, on the other hand, there is still a lot of room for development in the auto market.
First of all, at the level of auto consumption, some auto companies said that although the purchase restriction policy has eased the pressure on urban traffic to a certain extent, it has also restrained the release of market demand.
Although there are currently only 8 provinces and cities implementing purchase restrictions, the total amount and demonstration effect have a significant impact on the market.
With the improvement of intelligent technology and urban management, measures such as improving the efficiency of comprehensive management and rationally guiding the use of automobiles can alleviate traffic pressure and return automobile consumption to the market.
Secondly, as the proportion of new car purchases in first- and second-tier cities is decreasing year by year, there is still huge consumer demand in third-, fourth, and fifth-tier regions.
According to industry insiders, as the purchasing power of rural consumers increases, the rural automobile market is also facing an upgrade in consumer demand.
SUVs and pickup trucks with a displacement of less than 150,000 yuan and a displacement of less than 2.
0 liters have the best chance to become the flashpoint of automobile consumption growth.
.
In the future, support for these products should be increased, combined with the auto-going policy, subsidies, vehicle purchase tax reductions, and individual tax deductions should be used to promote consumption growth in the auto market.
Industry insiders pointed out that although the state has explicitly prohibited local governments from implementing protectionism, some hidden protections still exist, such as setting unnecessary thresholds and creating "customized" policies.
This has led to market fragmentation, product fragmentation, and insufficient scale, making it difficult for dominant companies to stand out.
At present, the new energy automobile industry is in a critical period of transition from policy-led to market-led.
It should further promote the establishment of a fair and unified market, optimize resource allocation, cultivate superior enterprises, and form core competitiveness.
Industry insiders also suggested that the auto industry should increase support for "going out".
The continuous negative growth of the domestic market and overcapacity are forcing Chinese car companies to speed up the pace of "going out", but now there are still greater difficulties and risks for Chinese car companies to "go out".
In this regard, the government level can build a platform to support outstanding Chinese brands to go abroad in groups and build global brands.
Jiang Wei said that in the future, we should take multiple measures to increase consumers' willingness to consume from the dimensions of reducing purchase costs, use costs, and improving psychological acceptance.
At the same time, encourage leading auto companies to launch a variety of innovative ecological business models based on intelligent networking, introduce more cross-industry and cross-industry factors in the areas of automobile purchase, service, maintenance, etc.
, to promote consumption upgrades in the automobile market.
In response to this situation, the central and local governments are intensively introducing various policies and measures to promote automobile consumption, such as relaxing purchase restrictions, promoting consumption of new energy vehicles, and promoting the development of smart vehicles.
Some believe that after the epidemic, consumer demand will usher in an outbreak, and the auto market will usher in a wave of "retaliatory" rise.
How will the "post-epidemic" Chinese auto market develop? Will it emerge as a new force, or will it fail to recover? Under the epidemic, "Dangerous organic" Under the epidemic, "Dangerous organic" Since July 2018, China's auto market has experienced negative growth for 19 consecutive months, and the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic has brought even more to the already declining auto market.
Big shock.
According to data from the China Passenger Car Market Information Joint Conference, in the first two weeks of February this year, the retail sales of the automobile market fell by 92% year-on-year, the highest drop in history.
According to a survey by the China Automobile Dealers Association, according to dealer sales forecasts for 2020, the annual auto market is expected to drop by 16.
5%.
Workers are working on the transmission production line of Harbin Dongan Automobile Engine Manufacturing Co.
, Ltd.
Reporter Wang Jianwei In the past, around February 1st was the day when most car companies and 4S shops started construction, but this time node has basically been postponed to after February 10th this year, and so far, some companies have only achieved partial When work resumes, it is still uncertain when it will return to normal production levels.
Not only vehicle companies, but also upstream parts companies and distributors have also been affected.
In particular, core components such as batteries and motors for new energy vehicles are facing certain supply risks.
Due to the late resumption of work and the short-term supply of the industrial chain, it is expected that the output of the auto industry will exceed one million vehicles.
However, there are also opinions in the industry that the epidemic will encourage consumers to prefer private cars to travel and stimulate consumer demand for automobiles.
After the epidemic is over, there will be a phenomenon of concentrated car purchases, and there may even be the possibility of a concentrated outbreak of demand in the second quarter.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Joint Council, said that due to the needs of epidemic prevention and control, residents' demand for travel quality will be greatly improved, and the demand for private car travel will be even stronger, especially for new users who do not have a car.
It is a push, and it is expected that surprise car purchases will occur.
Wang Bin, deputy director of the Department of Market Operations of the Ministry of Commerce, said that at present, the opening of car sales outlets and the recovery of consumer buying behavior are relatively slow, and car sales will be affected to some extent in the short term.
However, China's automobile market has great room for development and potential, and the demand for automobile consumption is still strong.
The impact of the epidemic on the automotive industry is phased.
As the epidemic is brought under control and production and life gradually resumed, the compensatory consumer demand for automobiles will increase significantly in the later period.
Consumption policy has begun to loosen Consumption policy has begun to loosen In the face of the continuous growth of market pressure, a number of policies to promote automobile consumption have begun to be intensively introduced and implemented.
Particularly eye-catching is that some first-tier cities have begun to loosen their car purchase restrictions.
On February 17, Foshan, Guangdong launched a policy to encourage automobile consumption, including subsidies ranging from RMB 2,000 to RMB 5,000 per vehicle.
This also makes Foshan the first city to introduce policies to encourage automobile consumption in 2020.
Recently, Guangdong Province has also issued a policy clearly stating that it encourages cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen to further relax the auto lottery and bidding indicators.
Vehicle purchase restrictions have always been regarded as an important factor affecting automobile consumption, while the purchase restriction policies in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are regarded as the vane of domestic vehicle purchase restrictions.
The possibility of further relaxation of purchase restrictions in cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen is undoubtedly an important piece of good news for the future auto market.
In fact, starting from 2019, the national automobile purchase restriction policy has begun to show signs of gradual relaxation.
In January 2019, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other 10 ministries and commissions jointly issued a document to clarify that where conditions have implemented the car purchase restrictions, the abandoned car purchase indicators can be appropriately activated to better meet the residents' car consumption needs.
In June of the same year, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document again, prohibiting the introduction of new automobile purchase restrictions in various places.
Local governments that have implemented automobile purchase restrictions should accelerate the shift from restricted purchases to guided use, and shall not impose restrictions on new energy vehicles.
The restrictions on the purchase of new energy vehicles should be cancelled.
.
In August of the same year, the General Office of the State Council also issued a promotional fee policy, clearly pointing out that it would release the potential of auto consumption and gradually relax or cancel the purchase restrictions.
Affected by the policy, Guiyang has cancelled the auto purchase restriction policy in September last year, and Tianjin, Guangdong, Hainan and other places have appropriately relaxed the purchase restriction policy.
The impact of the epidemic has become a catalyst for further policy promotion .
In early February, a meeting of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee proposed to encourage areas with restricted car purchases to appropriately increase car license plate quotas to drive the consumption of cars and related products.
After that, local policies began to increase significantly.
The Ministry of Commerce recently stated that it will study and introduce policies and measures to further stabilize automobile consumption and encourage local governments to introduce measures to promote consumption of new energy vehicles and increase the purchase limit of traditional automobiles to promote automobile consumption.
Jiang Wei, a distinguished researcher of the China Institute of Urban Governance at Shanghai Jiaotong University, believes that, under the premise of preventing and controlling the epidemic, we should arrange for the resumption of work and production of automobiles and upstream and downstream enterprises as soon as possible.
At the same time, efforts will be made from fiscal and taxation policies, industrial policies, etc.
, to stimulate automobile consumption by adjusting purchase restrictions, reducing taxes and fees, and so on.
"The ban should be further lifted or the purchase restriction policies in cities such as Beijing and Shanghai should be liberalized to release market demand.
By reducing the consumption tax and purchase tax on small-displacement cars and small trucks, first purchase demand should be stimulated, and cars should be included in the post-shift consumption tax collection.
Pilot projects will stimulate the increase in demand for first purchase and redemption.
" Jiang Wei said.
The market still has room for development.
The market still has room for development.
As a pillar industry of the national economy, the automobile industry is of great significance to the steady economic growth.
Data show that in 2019, the national automobile production value exceeded 8 trillion yuan, accounting for 8% of GDP, and the number of employees in the automobile and related industries accounted for about 1/6 of the total employment in the country.
Although the auto industry has faced greater development pressure in recent years, on the other hand, there is still a lot of room for development in the auto market.
First of all, at the level of auto consumption, some auto companies said that although the purchase restriction policy has eased the pressure on urban traffic to a certain extent, it has also restrained the release of market demand.
Although there are currently only 8 provinces and cities implementing purchase restrictions, the total amount and demonstration effect have a significant impact on the market.
With the improvement of intelligent technology and urban management, measures such as improving the efficiency of comprehensive management and rationally guiding the use of automobiles can alleviate traffic pressure and return automobile consumption to the market.
Secondly, as the proportion of new car purchases in first- and second-tier cities is decreasing year by year, there is still huge consumer demand in third-, fourth, and fifth-tier regions.
According to industry insiders, as the purchasing power of rural consumers increases, the rural automobile market is also facing an upgrade in consumer demand.
SUVs and pickup trucks with a displacement of less than 150,000 yuan and a displacement of less than 2.
0 liters have the best chance to become the flashpoint of automobile consumption growth.
.
In the future, support for these products should be increased, combined with the auto-going policy, subsidies, vehicle purchase tax reductions, and individual tax deductions should be used to promote consumption growth in the auto market.
Industry insiders pointed out that although the state has explicitly prohibited local governments from implementing protectionism, some hidden protections still exist, such as setting unnecessary thresholds and creating "customized" policies.
This has led to market fragmentation, product fragmentation, and insufficient scale, making it difficult for dominant companies to stand out.
At present, the new energy automobile industry is in a critical period of transition from policy-led to market-led.
It should further promote the establishment of a fair and unified market, optimize resource allocation, cultivate superior enterprises, and form core competitiveness.
Industry insiders also suggested that the auto industry should increase support for "going out".
The continuous negative growth of the domestic market and overcapacity are forcing Chinese car companies to speed up the pace of "going out", but now there are still greater difficulties and risks for Chinese car companies to "go out".
In this regard, the government level can build a platform to support outstanding Chinese brands to go abroad in groups and build global brands.
Jiang Wei said that in the future, we should take multiple measures to increase consumers' willingness to consume from the dimensions of reducing purchase costs, use costs, and improving psychological acceptance.
At the same time, encourage leading auto companies to launch a variety of innovative ecological business models based on intelligent networking, introduce more cross-industry and cross-industry factors in the areas of automobile purchase, service, maintenance, etc.
, to promote consumption upgrades in the automobile market.
