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According to the "December 2019 National 40 Cities New Commercial Housing Transaction Report" recently released by Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, the transaction area of newly constructed commercial housing in 40 typical cities in December 2019 increased by 22% month-on-month and a small increase of 4% year-on-year.
From the perspective of the whole year, after the 730 Politburo meeting, the market in most cities has cooled, and the annual transaction area increased slightly by 2% year-on-year.
According to the analysis of E-House Research Institute, at the end of 2019, due to the shortage of funds of some real estate companies and the sprint performance at the end of the year, they increased their launch and marketing efforts, and some home buyers actively entered the market, making the transaction volume of 40 cities in December last year hit a new high for the year .
However, under the policy tone of "housing to live without speculation", the government will not use real estate as a means of stimulating the economy in the short term.
Although the overall RRR cut at the beginning of 2020 does not mean that the real estate financing environment will be substantially relaxed, and it will not cause a major impact on the real estate market.
As a result, it is expected that transactions in 40 cities will decline at the beginning of 2020.
In terms of city categories, first-tier cities have stabilized and rebounded due to low transaction volume for two consecutive years, but it is difficult to sustain growth.
It is likely that the transaction level of 2019 will be maintained in 2020; the second-tier cities in the east may stabilize, and the second-tier cities in the middle will continue to recover.
It is likely to continue to cool down, and the transaction volume in second-tier cities and third- and fourth-tier cities in other regions is facing greater risk of decline.
Sales in 40 cities in 2019 increased slightly by 2% year-on-year in 2019.
Sales in 40 cities increased by 2% year-on-year.
The report shows that in December 2019, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 40 typical cities monitored by E-House Research Institute increased by 22% month-on-month, a small year-on-year increase An increase of 4%.
Judging from the annual trend, in 2019, the transaction volume of new houses in 40 cities in February hit a 48-month low since March 2015.
From March to May, some cities saw the market in Xiaoyangchun.
In June, some real estate companies sprinted for semi-annual results, and the transactions in 40 cities increased slightly from the previous month.
After the "730 Politburo Meeting" clearly stated for the first time that "real estate should not be used as a means of stimulating the economy in the short term", the mentality of market participants has changed.
The market in most cities has cooled down.
From July to November, the transaction volume in 40 cities fluctuates slightly.
Monthly real estate companies sprinted their full-year performance and increased their efforts to push the market.
The transaction volume reached the end of the year, and the annual transaction area increased slightly by 2% year-on-year.
Sales in first- and second-tier cities increased year-on-year, while transactions in third- and fourth-tier cities decreased year-on-yearSales in first- and second-tier cities increased year-on-year, while sales in third- and fourth-tier cities declined year-on-year.
From the performance of various cities, sales in first-tier cities in 2019 increased by 20% year-on-year.
The report shows that after two consecutive years of downturn in the property market, transactions in first-tier cities have recovered.
From the perspective of the annual trend, the year-on-year growth began in January 2019, and the growth rate has gradually increased since then.
Since June, the growth rate has gradually declined, and the annual transaction area has increased by 20% year-on-year.
Looking at the data in December alone, the transaction area of newly built commercial residential buildings in the four first-tier cities increased by 3% month-on-month and decreased by 17% year-on-year.
The absolute value of the current transaction area is at the average level since 2014.
In the future, E-House Research Institute believes that under the current strict regulation of the property market and unrelaxed credit, it is difficult for the transaction volume of first-tier cities to increase significantly in 2020, and it is more likely to maintain the current transaction level.
In 2019, transactions in second-tier cities increased by 4% year-on-year.
The report shows that in December 2019, the transaction area of newly built commercial residential buildings in 18 second-tier cities increased by 29% month-on-month and 8% year-on-year.
Among them: the transaction area of newly-built commercial residential buildings in 8 eastern second-tier cities increased by 44% month-on-month and 32% year-on-year; the transaction area of newly-built commercial residential buildings in 4 second-tier cities in central China increased by 3% month-on-month and decreased by 8% year-on-year; 6 second-tier cities in other regions ( Northeast and western regions) the transaction area of newly built commercial residential buildings increased by 37% month-on-month and slightly increased by 1% year-on-year.
In terms of annual trends, the first two months of 2019 have fallen sharply year-on-year.
From March to May, some second-tier cities saw Xiaoyangchun market, and the year-on-year decline has narrowed.
Since July, it has re-entered positive growth, and the annual transaction area increased slightly by 4% year-on-year.
In the follow-up, it is expected that the second-tier cities in the east may stabilize, the second-tier cities in the central region will continue to cool down, and the second-tier cities in other regions face greater risks of decline.
In 2019, transactions in third- and fourth-tier cities fell by 6% year-on-year.
The report shows that in December 2019, the transaction area of newly built commercial residential buildings in 18 third- and fourth-tier cities increased by 13% month-on-month and 3% year-on-year.
Among them: the transaction area of newly constructed commercial residential buildings in 7 third- and fourth-tier cities with strict regulation (purchase restriction or loan restriction) increased by 10% month-on-month and decreased by 18% year-on-year; 11 were unregulated or weakly regulated (for sale only) in this round The transaction area of newly built commercial residential buildings in third- and fourth-tier cities increased by 15% month-on-month and 20% year-on-year.
In terms of annual trends, the property market in most third- and fourth-tier cities with hot transactions in the first two years of 2019 began to cool down, and the annual transaction area fell by 6% year-on-year.
After a significant year-on-year decline in the first two months, the year-on-year decline has narrowed since March, which is the only year-on-year decline among the three types of cities.
E-House Research Institute predicts that third- and fourth-tier cities, especially unregulated or weakly regulated cities, will face a greater risk of decline in transaction volume.
Attachment: 40 typical cities, 4 first-tier cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, 18 second-tier cities: Suzhou, Fuzhou, Nanjing, Qingdao, Hangzhou, Changchun, Zhengzhou, Nanning, Chengdu, Nanchang, Wuhan, Changsha, Chongqing, Xi’an , Xiamen, Lanzhou, Hefei, Ningbo 18 third- and fourth-tier cities: Yangzhou, Dongguan, Wenzhou, Yueyang, Wuxi, Xiangyang, Quanzhou, Huai'an, Jinhua, Shantou, Zhaoqing, Huizhou, Yantai, Zhoushan, Shaoguan, Zhuhai, Zhongshan, Xuzhou
From the perspective of the whole year, after the 730 Politburo meeting, the market in most cities has cooled, and the annual transaction area increased slightly by 2% year-on-year.
According to the analysis of E-House Research Institute, at the end of 2019, due to the shortage of funds of some real estate companies and the sprint performance at the end of the year, they increased their launch and marketing efforts, and some home buyers actively entered the market, making the transaction volume of 40 cities in December last year hit a new high for the year .
However, under the policy tone of "housing to live without speculation", the government will not use real estate as a means of stimulating the economy in the short term.
Although the overall RRR cut at the beginning of 2020 does not mean that the real estate financing environment will be substantially relaxed, and it will not cause a major impact on the real estate market.
As a result, it is expected that transactions in 40 cities will decline at the beginning of 2020.
In terms of city categories, first-tier cities have stabilized and rebounded due to low transaction volume for two consecutive years, but it is difficult to sustain growth.
It is likely that the transaction level of 2019 will be maintained in 2020; the second-tier cities in the east may stabilize, and the second-tier cities in the middle will continue to recover.
It is likely to continue to cool down, and the transaction volume in second-tier cities and third- and fourth-tier cities in other regions is facing greater risk of decline.
Sales in 40 cities in 2019 increased slightly by 2% year-on-year in 2019.
Sales in 40 cities increased by 2% year-on-year.
The report shows that in December 2019, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 40 typical cities monitored by E-House Research Institute increased by 22% month-on-month, a small year-on-year increase An increase of 4%.
Judging from the annual trend, in 2019, the transaction volume of new houses in 40 cities in February hit a 48-month low since March 2015.
From March to May, some cities saw the market in Xiaoyangchun.
In June, some real estate companies sprinted for semi-annual results, and the transactions in 40 cities increased slightly from the previous month.
After the "730 Politburo Meeting" clearly stated for the first time that "real estate should not be used as a means of stimulating the economy in the short term", the mentality of market participants has changed.
The market in most cities has cooled down.
From July to November, the transaction volume in 40 cities fluctuates slightly.
Monthly real estate companies sprinted their full-year performance and increased their efforts to push the market.
The transaction volume reached the end of the year, and the annual transaction area increased slightly by 2% year-on-year.
Sales in first- and second-tier cities increased year-on-year, while transactions in third- and fourth-tier cities decreased year-on-yearSales in first- and second-tier cities increased year-on-year, while sales in third- and fourth-tier cities declined year-on-year.
From the performance of various cities, sales in first-tier cities in 2019 increased by 20% year-on-year.
The report shows that after two consecutive years of downturn in the property market, transactions in first-tier cities have recovered.
From the perspective of the annual trend, the year-on-year growth began in January 2019, and the growth rate has gradually increased since then.
Since June, the growth rate has gradually declined, and the annual transaction area has increased by 20% year-on-year.
Looking at the data in December alone, the transaction area of newly built commercial residential buildings in the four first-tier cities increased by 3% month-on-month and decreased by 17% year-on-year.
The absolute value of the current transaction area is at the average level since 2014.
In the future, E-House Research Institute believes that under the current strict regulation of the property market and unrelaxed credit, it is difficult for the transaction volume of first-tier cities to increase significantly in 2020, and it is more likely to maintain the current transaction level.
In 2019, transactions in second-tier cities increased by 4% year-on-year.
The report shows that in December 2019, the transaction area of newly built commercial residential buildings in 18 second-tier cities increased by 29% month-on-month and 8% year-on-year.
Among them: the transaction area of newly-built commercial residential buildings in 8 eastern second-tier cities increased by 44% month-on-month and 32% year-on-year; the transaction area of newly-built commercial residential buildings in 4 second-tier cities in central China increased by 3% month-on-month and decreased by 8% year-on-year; 6 second-tier cities in other regions ( Northeast and western regions) the transaction area of newly built commercial residential buildings increased by 37% month-on-month and slightly increased by 1% year-on-year.
In terms of annual trends, the first two months of 2019 have fallen sharply year-on-year.
From March to May, some second-tier cities saw Xiaoyangchun market, and the year-on-year decline has narrowed.
Since July, it has re-entered positive growth, and the annual transaction area increased slightly by 4% year-on-year.
In the follow-up, it is expected that the second-tier cities in the east may stabilize, the second-tier cities in the central region will continue to cool down, and the second-tier cities in other regions face greater risks of decline.
In 2019, transactions in third- and fourth-tier cities fell by 6% year-on-year.
The report shows that in December 2019, the transaction area of newly built commercial residential buildings in 18 third- and fourth-tier cities increased by 13% month-on-month and 3% year-on-year.
Among them: the transaction area of newly constructed commercial residential buildings in 7 third- and fourth-tier cities with strict regulation (purchase restriction or loan restriction) increased by 10% month-on-month and decreased by 18% year-on-year; 11 were unregulated or weakly regulated (for sale only) in this round The transaction area of newly built commercial residential buildings in third- and fourth-tier cities increased by 15% month-on-month and 20% year-on-year.
In terms of annual trends, the property market in most third- and fourth-tier cities with hot transactions in the first two years of 2019 began to cool down, and the annual transaction area fell by 6% year-on-year.
After a significant year-on-year decline in the first two months, the year-on-year decline has narrowed since March, which is the only year-on-year decline among the three types of cities.
E-House Research Institute predicts that third- and fourth-tier cities, especially unregulated or weakly regulated cities, will face a greater risk of decline in transaction volume.
Attachment: 40 typical cities, 4 first-tier cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, 18 second-tier cities: Suzhou, Fuzhou, Nanjing, Qingdao, Hangzhou, Changchun, Zhengzhou, Nanning, Chengdu, Nanchang, Wuhan, Changsha, Chongqing, Xi’an , Xiamen, Lanzhou, Hefei, Ningbo 18 third- and fourth-tier cities: Yangzhou, Dongguan, Wenzhou, Yueyang, Wuxi, Xiangyang, Quanzhou, Huai'an, Jinhua, Shantou, Zhaoqing, Huizhou, Yantai, Zhoushan, Shaoguan, Zhuhai, Zhongshan, Xuzhou
