Industry | Nearly 50% of real estate companies believe that the epidemic will affect the market for half a year

Bill Gates once said that we always overestimate "short-term" changes but underestimate future "long-term" changes.
In 2020, the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic will start fiercely, and the whole country has started a war without gunpowder.
The potential impact of the epidemic on the national economy and the real estate industry has received attention.
Sales offices across the country were temporarily closed, all project sites were shut down, intermediary stores were suspended, and the real estate market ushered in unprecedented pressure.
During the nationwide fight against the epidemic, many real estate companies, while generously contributing to the fight against the epidemic, have also suffered economic losses due to the epidemic.
Monitoring data shows that among the top 50 real estate companies in January 2020, sales fell by 40 real estate companies year-on-year, and the performance decline rate was 80%.
During the Spring Festival, the sales of real estate enterprises stopped completely, and there was "zero payment.
" The "frozen" property market has brought a great test to the cash flow of real estate companies.
Especially small and medium-sized real estate companies were directly pushed to the brink of bankruptcy under the influence of the epidemic.
Survival is still the biggest rigid demand in the real estate industry chain.
How big is the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the real estate industry in 2020? China Real Estate News reported that in response to previous questionnaires issued to real estate companies, nearly 50% of real estate companies believe that operating costs will increase, but they are affordable; nearly 50% of real estate companies believe that the epidemic will affect the real estate industry for half a year; nearly 60% of them Real estate companies said that the sales scale for the whole year of 2020 is expected to drop by 10%-30% year-on-year in 2019; more than 50% of real estate companies said that the scale of land acquisition in 2020 is lower than in 2019, and the pace of land acquisition is slowed before and after the epidemic.
Crisis is an opportunity.
Overall, the impact of the epidemic on the industry is short-term.
The first quarter will cause difficulties for the normal business activities of real estate companies, and there will be pressure to lower market volume and prices.
However, with the gradual restoration of sales and market confidence, it is also an opportunity for real estate companies.
We believe that when the spring flowers bloom and the epidemic subsides, the real estate market in 2020 will continue to flourish.
Ninety percent of the companies surveyed said they could not complete their sales targets in full this year.
Ninety percent of the companies surveyed said they could not complete their sales targets in full this year .
This questionnaire covers central enterprises, state-owned enterprises, and private enterprises.
Among them, private enterprises accounted for 87.
8%; state-owned enterprises accounted for 7.
32%; state-owned enterprises accounted for 4.
88%.
Taking the scale of commercial residential sales in 2019 as a reference, the annual sales scale of 500 billion yuan accounted for 12.
2%; the respondents of 200 billion to 300 billion yuan scale real estate enterprises accounted for 14.
63%; the 50 billion to 100 billion yuan scale houses The respondents of enterprises accounted for 24.
39%; the respondents of enterprises below 50 billion yuan accounted for 48.
78%.
Based on the current development trend of the epidemic, real estate companies believe that the impact of the epidemic on the real estate market will exceed 34.
15% of the entire year.
The main reason is that the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic is rapid and wide-ranging, and most cities have postponed the resumption of work, which has caused most of the real estate enterprises to fail to operate, and the market as a whole is in a stage of greater downward pressure.
48.
78% of the real estate company respondents believe that the epidemic will affect the real estate market for half a year, and only 17.
07% believe that the impact is only one quarter.
From this point of view, the impact of the epidemic on the short-term market is relatively obvious, and some small and medium-sized real estate companies are not optimistic about the prediction of the impact cycle.
How big is the impact of the epidemic on the operation of real estate companies? The report shows that 48.
78% of the companies surveyed said that operating costs have increased, but they are affordable; 34.
15% of the companies surveyed said they could not sell, cash backflow was difficult, and business operations were difficult; in addition, 7.
32% of real estate companies said business operations had problems, and 9.
76% were affected.
The visiting company has already begun to cooperate with foreign countries to survive.
On the whole, the biggest pain points facing real estate companies are stagnant sales, blocked start-ups, and tight funding.
In the short term, the epidemic is not over, and transactions are still declining and remain low.
Looking at the whole year, more than half of the respondents believe that this year's sales volume will decline by 10%-30%, of which 26.
83% expect the company's transaction scale to fall within 10%, 7.
32% think it will be basically the same as the same period last year, and another 10% Of the interviewees are relatively optimistic that the transaction volume for the whole year of 2020 can achieve growth within 10%.
The impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the economy is comprehensive, and the real estate market is inevitable.
Many companies have set their annual sales targets at the beginning of the year.
Will there be any changes under the influence of the epidemic?The report shows that 26.
83% of the interviewed companies expect the sales target completion rate this year to be in the range of 80%-100%, 41.
46% expect the target completion rate to be in the 60%-80% range, and 29.
27% ​​believe that the completion rate is above 50%, which is 90%.
The interviewed companies believe that this year's sales target cannot be 100%, and only 2.
44% believe that the company can achieve or exceed the sales target.
Over half of the surveyed companies will decrease the scale of land acquisition this year and slow down the pace.
Over half of the surveyed companies will decrease the scale of land acquisition this year and slow down and slow down the pace.
The new crown pneumonia epidemic is raging, offline sales offices are closed, and real estate companies Marketing is facing greater challenges, and many real estate companies have moved to the front line to actively launch online sales offices.
According to the survey samples of China Real Estate News, 65.
85% of enterprises have fully launched online sales offices, 24.
39% are in preparation, and 9.
76% have not launched online sales.
From the perspective of practical effects, more than 80% of the interviewed companies believe that online marketing effects are not ideal, and 17.
07% are average.
In the opinion of most real estate companies, online can satisfy customer inquiries, but offline inspections and signing contracts are difficult to replace.
Sales and payment are under pressure.
Will real estate companies take the initiative to cut prices? The report shows that nearly 60% of respondents believe that the overall price of the company's products is the same as before the outbreak, 36.
59% said that the overall price drop is within 10%, and only 4.
88% of the interviewed companies will raise their product prices within 10%.
On the whole, the current epidemic has not significantly affected the price strategy of companies, and the main focus is on maintaining stability.
The epidemic has had a certain impact on the expected scale of land acquisition by real estate companies.
Compared with 2019, the overall land acquisition scale of enterprises in 2020 will mainly be reduced and slowed down.
More than half (56.
1%) of the interviewed enterprises believe that the annual land acquisition scale has decreased compared with last year, and 24.
39% of enterprises believe that it is basically the same as last year.
Another 19.
51% of companies believe that the scale will exceed last year.
The epidemic has had a certain impact on the pace of investment and land acquisition confidence of real estate companies throughout the year, and different companies have begun to diverge significantly.
The proportion of slowing down land acquisition during the epidemic period and accelerating land acquisition after the epidemic accounted for 19.
51%; the proportion of slowing down land acquisition before and after the epidemic was 51.
22%, and only 29.
27% ​​of enterprises believed that the pace of land acquisition was not affected by the epidemic.
Funds are the "blood" of real estate companies.
This has not changed the financing needs of real estate companies due to the epidemic.
Increasing financing and supplementing cash flow are the primary tasks of most companies.
63.
41% of the interviewed companies said they reduced financing during the epidemic and increased financing after the epidemic; 24.
39% said they accelerated their financing before and after the epidemic; 12.
2% believed that the impact of the epidemic was not obvious.
Over half of the companies believe that financing costs will rise by 1%-5% due to the epidemic; 26.
83% believe that there is no change, and 17.
07% believe that financing costs will rise by 1%-5%.
Under the challenge of the epidemic, real estate companies are also thinking about countermeasures.
In terms of policies, 31.
9% of the companies surveyed hope to implement policies based on the city and appropriately liberalize market transactions, such as relaxing purchase restrictions and reducing down payment; 21.
55% hope that policies will provide appropriate credit support and financing policies to ease the financial pressure of enterprises and solve urgent needs; 20.
69% hope that the government will moderately increase land supply and extend the time required for the start and completion of new land supply; 25.
86% hope to support the resumption of work and production.