Industry | Home furnishing industry will enter the "post-epidemic era" after the resumption of work?

Since the closure of Wuhan on January 23, major provinces and cities have successively initiated first-level responses to major public health emergencies, and most people have spent the longest "winter vacation" in history at home.
Offline liquidity has been greatly weakened, and the opening of physical stores, the resumption of work of the company, and the resumption of production of factories have been repeatedly postponed.
In addition to films, catering, tourism, retail and other industries that bear the brunt, home furnishing, as an industry with strong offline attributes, has also been affected by a series of chain reactions triggered by the epidemic.
The good news is that according to the investigation conducted by Yiou, nearly a month after the outbreak of the epidemic, the home improvement industry has shown signs of recovery, and normal office and production orders are gradually being restored.
However, it is still necessary to wait for a certain period from the resumption of work to the recovery of market demand.
1, under the haze 1, under the haze under the haze in the whole process in home improvement, decoration companies from consulting to communicate with the designers demand, the amount of room, decoration, Shou Fang, which involve a number of links to the next line Service and delivery.
Moreover, home improvement is a category of consumer products with low frequency and high customer unit price.
Consumers have a long decision-making cycle and are very cautious in the decision-making process.
"Orders only rely on pure online live broadcast, communication and exchanges.
" This is somewhat incompatible with the consumer psychology of mainstream consumers.
the distance.
Therefore, home improvement is also the "hardest-hit area" of this epidemic.
After the Spring Festival, affected by the weakening of offline liquidity, many homeowners temporarily put aside their renovation plans and chose to wait and see the changes.
The small peak of transactions that would have occurred after the Spring Festival was also forced to postpone.
Not only that, the supply side has basically stagnated in the past month, and installation companies can communicate with customers and do marketing on Douyin Kuaishou, but there is almost no way to provide any offline services.
According to Nie Jinjin, vice president of Tubatu and the owners, many owners said in the early stage of the outbreak that they would not consider renovations in the near future.
Therefore, in a short period of time, the normal work of the decoration companies will be affected to a certain extent.
However, he also pointed out that the home furnishing industry is different from the catering and other industries that have been severely affected by the epidemic.
If the epidemic affects for as long as a quarter, the catering demand that was suppressed during the period will basically not be "compensated" after the epidemic ends, and most of the home improvement is rigid demand.
Just need is only temporarily delayed in the face of the epidemic and will not disappear.
The same is true for B-oriented installation companies, the main impact is the delay in demand and a series of butterfly effects afterwards.
"Our current business has two main areas.
One is to help transform traditional decoration to prefabricated decoration, which is a completely to B business; the other is already started.
We plan to fully promote the'Sanboya Wall Panel' in 2020.
The prefabricated wall products cut into the home improvement, this is the business of to B and to C.
The first business is affected mainly by the delay of the current customer resumption of work, but the demand and business are basically not affected, only the production cycle and delivery The cycle will be delayed accordingly; the second business, from the current point of view, the advancement of the business will be affected, but our preparations are almost done.
" Xiao Zhijian, co-founder and COO of Zhongyu Assembly, said to Yiou .
It is worth mentioning that, in response to the epidemic, Zhongyu Assembly took a very short time to develop a prefabricated "disinfection cabin", which is mainly used in residential communities, hospitals and other places, and the current demand is relatively large.
According to Yiou's understanding, Zhongyu is not alone in the deployment of prefabricated companies for R&D and production of disinfection cabins during the epidemic.
Another well-known company in the prefabricated decoration industry, Pinzhai, was affected by the epidemic basically similar to that of Zhongyu Assembly.
Xiang Chong, founder and CEO of Pinzhai, said: “Pinzhai is mainly for B-end customers.
The impact of the epidemic on us is mainly in two aspects.
On the one hand, the delivery date of orders has to be delayed, because the production and assembly of parts cannot be It will resume immediately after the Spring Festival; on the other hand, the signing of new projects in the first and second quarters may encounter certain obstacles.
” At the same time, Xiang Chong pointed out that home improvement companies such as Pinzhai, which mainly serve the B-end, are due to the existence of applications.
For accounts receivable, even if there is a short-term stoppage of one or two months, the previous accounts receivable can be reminded.
Therefore, the cash flow problem is not as serious as in the retail and catering industry, but it will still exist.
In the home improvement industry, smaller companies face more serious cash flow problems.
The longer the epidemic lasts, the more companies will be unable to stand it.
Nie Jinjin also believes that this epidemic will accelerate the elimination of some tail enterprises.
“At present, the pressure on building materials companies and decoration companies is relatively high, especially for companies that were originally cramped in funds and some small companies.
The impact will be relatively large.
It is not ruled out that some home improvement companies will go bankrupt due to capital turnover problems.
The situation.
” On February 19, Sophia released a message, revealing that 8% of the rear dealers will be eliminated in 2020.
In the home furnishing industry, distributors often play the role of "Chunjiang Plumbing Duck Prophet", eliminating the inferior, creating the new and eliminating the old.
From a macro point of view, it is a necessary course for enterprises and the price required for industry transformation; From an individual point of view, grassroots dealers and small and micro enterprises will inevitably be under pressure and become the most vulnerable group during this period.
However, Nie Jinjin is still relatively optimistic about the prospects of the industry as a whole.
He believes that these eliminations are a partial phenomenon, and the industry will not appear in the industry as previously described by some media as the "collapse tide".
After the cold winter, it is spring.
2.
Get out of the haze? 2.
Get out of the haze? Out of the haze? Previously, due to epidemic prevention and control measures, most companies in the home furnishing industry implemented online office.
Fortunately, in mid-to-late February, the normal working order in the industry is entering a period of recovery, and offline service capabilities are expected to be restored.
At present, employees from many companies have come to the company to work; some of the companies that implement online office have issued a clear timetable for resuming work, which is expected to resume work at the end of February.
Other companies are also doing their best to normalize operations.
ready.
According to Nie Jinjin, as of February 16, 40% of the decoration companies on the Tubatu platform have resumed online office, which is a significant increase from the 5% on February 3.
He believes that as the epidemic is gradually brought under control, the number of installation companies returning to normal offices will continue to increase.
The prefabricated decoration industry is also showing signs of recovery.
According to reports, the assembly plant of Zhongyu will fully schedule production and resume work from February 24, and office order will return to normal by then.
Custom home furnishings and home retailing are also gradually recovering.
According to Sofia employees, Sofia’s online office has been launched since the New Year’s Eve.
At present, employees come to the company in batches, and the factory resumption time is delayed by 1-2 weeks than before.
For the to B business, Sofia will install it this year.
The projects have been signed and confirmed.
The projects originally planned to be installed in the first quarter may be postponed, but the whole year will not be affected.
Deng Tao, Secretary of the Board of Directors of Haolaike, also introduced to Yiou that at present, Haolaike employees have basically gone to work in the company, and the production of the factory is gradually recovering.
In addition, according to an employee of Lin's Wood Industry, some employees of Lin's Wood Industry began to work in the company on February 10th, and all employees will be on duty in late February.
However, the situation observed by the Lin's wood industry employees is that the willingness of workers to return to the workshop is still relatively low, so the factory that Lin's cooperates with will not be fully put into production until about the beginning of March.
Compared with the office, the factory will resume production scheduling a little later.
This situation is the epitome of the industry.
On the retail side, home furnishing stores that have been closed for a month have gradually opened their doors to welcome customers.
On February 19th, Fusenmei Home Furnishings Chengdu store announced its opening.
According to the previous announcement, all stores of Red Star Macalline and Jiaranzhijia except Hubei will also resume operations on February 29 and February 22, respectively.
However, according to the policies issued by provinces and cities and the actual strategies of enterprises, there will be certain differences in the time for enterprises to resume work and schedule production.
According to incomplete statistics from Yiou, as of February 21st, Gujia Home Furnishing, Dongyi Risheng, Red Star Macalline Design Cloud, Qijia.
com, Tubatu, Heneng Habitat, Pinzhai and other companies are still online At the office stage, some companies have not yet announced the company's work time.
On the whole, the normal production and business order of the entire home furnishing industry has begun to get back on track.
3.
Entering the "post-epidemic era" 3.
Entering the "post-epidemic era" After the outbreak of the "post-epidemic era" , many people began to believe that the home and home improvement in the post-epidemic era should be "online".
SARS has matured the business model of e-commerce and has become an opportunity for the rise of Alibaba and JD.
com.
In the same way, the new crown epidemic in 2020 may also become a dividing line for the acceleration of the reform of the home furnishing industry.
At least, in the past month, the Moments of Friends have been screened by Douyin Kuaishou marketing.
It seems that everyone in the home is broadcasting live.
The arrival of the recovery period makes intensive preparations.
According to incomplete statistics, Suning, Tubatu, Qijia.
com, and Yidoutang have all reached cooperation with home improvement companies to jointly provide live broadcast services; leading custom home furnishing companies represented by Oupai and Sofia will also broadcast live during the epidemic As an important channel for customer acquisition.
Driven by the live broadcast, Suning's sales of smart home products in multiple categories grew by more than 100% year-on-year.
Qijia.
com and Tubatu belong to enterprises with strong Internet attributes in the home improvement industry.
They have a certain historical accumulation in the online home improvement.
Yiou learned through Qijia.
com and Tubatu that during the epidemic, the two companies They have cooperated with a large number of companies to conduct live broadcasts and have reached certain orders.
The decoration companies such as Yange Decoration, Qijia Dianshang, Tianyimei Decoration, etc.
, which cooperated with Qijia.
com, have obtained dozens of orders during the live broadcast; Tuba In terms of rabbits, the conversion rate reached 20%-40% in the 7 live broadcasts of home improvement held with decoration companies such as Daxian Decoration Store, Shanghai Zhiding Decoration, and Chengdu Chuangmeiju.
Yidoutang A PP has opened up resources to home furnishings stores, and companies can promote and store customers in the APP for free.
The founder Xu Honghu said that since the news was released in early February, more than 5,000 home furnishing companies have settled in Yidoutang.
APP.
In the custom home furnishing industry, live broadcasting has also become a trend.
On February 13, Oupai joined hands with Hunan Satellite TV host Xiaoyue to test live streaming on the three platforms of Tmall, Tencent, and Suning.
The actual number of online viewers exceeded 650,000, and the total live broadcast orders reached 12,365, creating the home building materials industry.
The largest number of online viewers in the history of live broadcasting, and the largest number of total live orders.
Sophia, another giant of custom home furnishings, urgently adjusted the “open door” plan in February during the Spring Festival and shifted to online orders.
According to Sophia, since February, the company has carried out a number of online activities with good results.
In addition, cloud design companies such as Kujiale, Sanweijia, and Fashion Home, as well as home furnishing companies such as TATA Wooden Door, Dongyi Risheng, Haolaike, and Diwang Sanitary Ware, have deployed in the field of live broadcast and quickly strengthened their online capabilities.
A kind of public opinion has gradually formed in the market: after the epidemic, the online process of the home furnishing industry will accelerate, and live broadcasting as a new format cannot be ignored.
After the live broadcast era, will the home furnishing industry be completely transformed? Regarding this issue, an industry insider gave a different point of view.
He believes that when prestige companies do cross-border live broadcasts, they are basically self-satisfied when they have a weak online foundation and lack of audiences, and some prestige companies are ugly, and they can’t wait to collect deposits and contract payments directly in the live broadcast room without creating content for users.
Value has lost its original intention.
He pointed out that this kind of live broadcast behavior belongs to the blind hitting of enterprises in order to survive under the pressure of the performance of the first quarter on the verge of "scrap", which does not have much meaning to the industry.
This is undoubtedly a pot of cold water for the live broadcast boom.
However, on the one hand, there is cruel operating pressure, on the other hand, the rapid rise of the trend, and the collective enterprise is rushing in a certain direction.
At this moment, the industry does need some cold thinking.
Whether the live broadcast will completely change the industry ecology with the epidemic as the node, or a temporary trend that erupts for survival, it is all the efforts made by enterprises for development.
For most companies, the most urgent thing at the moment is not to change the industry ecology, but to survive in this special period.
Only if you live, you will have a future.
When it comes to the future, Xiang Chong's expectations are generally optimistic.
"After the epidemic, the decoration market should rebound.
" This is also the mainstream voice in the industry.
Household consumer demand is biased towards rigid demand.
This kind of rigid demand was temporarily affected by the epidemic and was temporarily shelved, but it will be released sooner or later.
Many people believe that from a longer cycle, the impact of this epidemic will not be too great.
When the epidemic is completely over, people can walk to the streets with peace of mind, and the rigid needs that have been shelved will flock to the market again.
It should be noted that the recovery of normalized operations of enterprises is often marked by a point in time, while the recovery of sales and orders will be longer in terms of cycle.
Regarding when this cycle will come, Deng Tao, Secretary of the Board of Directors of Horace, believes that the industry is expected to gradually recover from March, and the company's performance in the second and third quarters may be relatively good.
However, the industry still should not be blindly optimistic about the future.
"It is a high probability event that the outbreak of the epidemic has caused China's economic downturn, but the fundamentals of China's long-term economic upturn have not changed.
" The "two sides" of this sentence reminds us: in addition to optimism, we must also pay attention to the economic downturn.
It will almost inevitably affect consumers' confidence and expectations for the future, leading to the suppression of some non-rigid and improved consumer demand for home furnishings.
What is the approximate proportion of suppressed consumer demand? What is the impact on the industry? At the moment, no one can give an exact answer for the time being.