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Recently, VesselsValue has added a container ship trading module.
Users can now analyze the mile demand of the global container fleet, and view the shipping route and docking status of the ship.
VesselsValue Chief Operating Officer (COO) Adrian Economakis uses key data to analyze and determine the most attractive market segments for ship owners and investors, the overall market situation, and the development trend of the ship market value in the next few years.
He said: "VesselsValue The container trade service provides a data-based way to understand the needs of the container ship market.
These demand-side data are updated in real time and obtained through the analysis of each ship and each voyage.
Combined with the supply-side analysis, it can be in-depth Understand the fundamentals of different market segments in the container industry.
" The container ship market, especially the Post Panamax and New Panamax markets, has shown strong growth in rental income and valuation.
momentum.
For the sake of simplicity, VesselsValue has grouped the "container ship market" into three categories: "Large" (Post Panamax and above), "Panamax" and "Small" (Sub Panamax and below).
Large container ship Large container ship Large container ship The total capacity (in TEU) of the large container fleet currently in operation is showing a strong growth trend.
In the past three months, demand has increased by 2.
3%, while the total supply of ship’s TEU capacity has only increased by 1.
7%, which is undoubtedly one of the driving forces for the substantial increase in freight rates during this period.
But from the perspective of the whole year, the growth rate of supply was 4.
9%, which has exceeded the growth rate of demand of only 3.
3%.
In the longer-term past five years, supply and demand have basically been balanced, demand has increased by 33.
5%, and supply has increased by 33.
1%.
The chart below shows the year-on-year monthly rolling growth percentage of the demand for large container ships (TEU? nautical miles).
It is worth mentioning that the Sino-US trade war has had a negative impact on the demand for large container ships, as shown in the figure below.
For the sake of clarity, the above data only includes the TEU•nautical mile demand for direct container trade between China and the United States, and does not include other ports along the way.
The direct trade indicator is a good indicator that can help us see the impact of the Sino-US trade war on the demand for container ships between the two countries.
The red vertical line shows the time point of tariff implementation.
We can clearly see that the implementation of tariffs has brought a significant downward impact on the TEU•nautical mile demand for the entire section of this route.
However, as shown by previous data, the total global demand for large container ships has been increasing.
The reason is that other container routes have shown significant growth during the same period.
Statistics show that in the past three months, the volume of large container ships on the route from Southeast Asia (SEA) to northwestern Europe has increased by 11%.
The curve in the figure below clearly shows this trend, and some corresponding voyages are also listed in the table.
In addition, the return trade from Northwest Africa to Southeast Asia increased by 91% during the same period, which was mainly caused by the changes in return routes and ports of call and more large container ships being put into this trade route.
In the past year, trade volume on routes from Northwest Europe to Southeast Asia has increased by 19%, while trade on return routes from the Caribbean to Southeast Asia has increased by 46%.
All in all, although the Sino-US trade war has brought some negative effects, the recent growth in demand for large container ships remains strong.
Panamax container ship Panamax container ship In the past three months, the demand for Panamax container ships has shown a healthy growth of 2.
1%, while the supply volume has dropped slightly by 0.
1%.
But in a longer period of time, the situation is quite the opposite.
The decline in demand has generally exceeded the decline in supply.
Last year, the demand for TEU of Panamax container ships dropped by 5.
6%, while the supply of TEU dropped by only 1.
3%.
In the past five years, demand has fallen by 36.
6%, while the decline in supply has been much smaller at 22.
1%.
VV data also shows that most of the recent increase in demand for Panamax vessels comes from the growth of intra-Asian trade in the past three months (a 4% increase).
In the past 5 years, this trend has become more pronounced-the demand for Panamax vessels in Asian regional trade has increased by 34%.
The chart below shows the TEU nautical mile demand for Panamax container ships (year-on-year monthly rolling growth percentage).
Small container ships In the past three months, demand for small container ships has basically remained flat while supply has increased by 3%.
In the past year, demand has fallen by 1.
5%, while supply has increased slightly by 0.
2%.
In the past five years, overall demand has fallen by 3.
8%, while supply has increased by 0.
6%.
The chart below shows the year-on-year monthly rolling growth percentage of TEU demand for small container ships.
From the perspective of supply and demand, the market for small container ships is not ideal.
Value trends, cyclical positions and macroeconomic forecasts From the perspective of ship value, the container market has seen significant polarization, and the performance of the large container ship market is significantly better than that of the small container ship.
The chart below shows the daily changes in ship value of various types of standard container ships (5 years of age).
Judging from the changes last year, the value of Post Panamax has increased by 27% year-on-year (New Panamax and ULCV also follow a similar trend), Panamax has increased 17%, Handy (Handy) of 4%, a large branch ship (your feed ibuychem.
com/new/sjk?search_name=er&search_type=1" target="_blank">ER max) -6%.
ibuychem.
com/new/sjk?search_name=er&search_type=1" target="_blank">er to analyze the current value relative to the shipping industry as a whole cycle where the most clear way that the current value and long-term value of the median for comparison.
By comparing with the median long-term value, this set of data clearly shows that the market still has great potential for growth, especially in the Panamax container ship sector.
Finally, referring to third-party asset value forecasts based on macroeconomic fundamentals, all these ship types will show an upward trend in the next few years, while Panamax container ships show the greatest relative growth potential.
Conclusion
Conclusion Conclusion The
container ship market with the best supply and demand fundamentals is the post Panamax and above container ships.
However, the market has also responded, and the value of these types of ships has risen significantly, approaching the median long-term value.
In addition, compared with other container ship types, the macroeconomic forecast of the large container ship market is also relatively conservative.
The Panamax container ship sector has mixed ups and downs.
Historically, the fundamentals of supply and demand are not very good, and the rate of decline in demand is faster than the rate of decline in supply of this type of ship.
However, the latest data shows that this situation is being reversed.
If this momentum can be sustained, it may bring about a substantial increase in the value of ships and freight rates, thereby getting rid of the current market dilemma.
But it has to be said that this is basically just a difficult situation to survive, because the Panamax container ship market as a whole is still showing a shrinking trend.
Therefore, the key question is whether the rate of decrease in supply can be faster than the rate of decrease in demand, thereby bringing opportunities for short- and medium-term gains.
The overall data for small container ships is not very optimistic.
The increase in supply has generally exceeded the increase in demand, and the value of ships has declined slightly.
Compared with the cyclical position and macroeconomic forecasts of the Panamax container ship sector, the theoretical upside of the small container ship sector is also relatively large.
small.
Users can now analyze the mile demand of the global container fleet, and view the shipping route and docking status of the ship.
VesselsValue Chief Operating Officer (COO) Adrian Economakis uses key data to analyze and determine the most attractive market segments for ship owners and investors, the overall market situation, and the development trend of the ship market value in the next few years.
He said: "VesselsValue The container trade service provides a data-based way to understand the needs of the container ship market.
These demand-side data are updated in real time and obtained through the analysis of each ship and each voyage.
Combined with the supply-side analysis, it can be in-depth Understand the fundamentals of different market segments in the container industry.
" The container ship market, especially the Post Panamax and New Panamax markets, has shown strong growth in rental income and valuation.
momentum.
For the sake of simplicity, VesselsValue has grouped the "container ship market" into three categories: "Large" (Post Panamax and above), "Panamax" and "Small" (Sub Panamax and below).
Large container ship Large container ship Large container ship The total capacity (in TEU) of the large container fleet currently in operation is showing a strong growth trend.
In the past three months, demand has increased by 2.
3%, while the total supply of ship’s TEU capacity has only increased by 1.
7%, which is undoubtedly one of the driving forces for the substantial increase in freight rates during this period.
But from the perspective of the whole year, the growth rate of supply was 4.
9%, which has exceeded the growth rate of demand of only 3.
3%.
In the longer-term past five years, supply and demand have basically been balanced, demand has increased by 33.
5%, and supply has increased by 33.
1%.
The chart below shows the year-on-year monthly rolling growth percentage of the demand for large container ships (TEU? nautical miles).
It is worth mentioning that the Sino-US trade war has had a negative impact on the demand for large container ships, as shown in the figure below.
For the sake of clarity, the above data only includes the TEU•nautical mile demand for direct container trade between China and the United States, and does not include other ports along the way.
The direct trade indicator is a good indicator that can help us see the impact of the Sino-US trade war on the demand for container ships between the two countries.
The red vertical line shows the time point of tariff implementation.
We can clearly see that the implementation of tariffs has brought a significant downward impact on the TEU•nautical mile demand for the entire section of this route.
However, as shown by previous data, the total global demand for large container ships has been increasing.
The reason is that other container routes have shown significant growth during the same period.
Statistics show that in the past three months, the volume of large container ships on the route from Southeast Asia (SEA) to northwestern Europe has increased by 11%.
The curve in the figure below clearly shows this trend, and some corresponding voyages are also listed in the table.
In addition, the return trade from Northwest Africa to Southeast Asia increased by 91% during the same period, which was mainly caused by the changes in return routes and ports of call and more large container ships being put into this trade route.
In the past year, trade volume on routes from Northwest Europe to Southeast Asia has increased by 19%, while trade on return routes from the Caribbean to Southeast Asia has increased by 46%.
All in all, although the Sino-US trade war has brought some negative effects, the recent growth in demand for large container ships remains strong.
Panamax container ship Panamax container ship In the past three months, the demand for Panamax container ships has shown a healthy growth of 2.
1%, while the supply volume has dropped slightly by 0.
1%.
But in a longer period of time, the situation is quite the opposite.
The decline in demand has generally exceeded the decline in supply.
Last year, the demand for TEU of Panamax container ships dropped by 5.
6%, while the supply of TEU dropped by only 1.
3%.
In the past five years, demand has fallen by 36.
6%, while the decline in supply has been much smaller at 22.
1%.
VV data also shows that most of the recent increase in demand for Panamax vessels comes from the growth of intra-Asian trade in the past three months (a 4% increase).
In the past 5 years, this trend has become more pronounced-the demand for Panamax vessels in Asian regional trade has increased by 34%.
The chart below shows the TEU nautical mile demand for Panamax container ships (year-on-year monthly rolling growth percentage).
Small container ships In the past three months, demand for small container ships has basically remained flat while supply has increased by 3%.
In the past year, demand has fallen by 1.
5%, while supply has increased slightly by 0.
2%.
In the past five years, overall demand has fallen by 3.
8%, while supply has increased by 0.
6%.
The chart below shows the year-on-year monthly rolling growth percentage of TEU demand for small container ships.
From the perspective of supply and demand, the market for small container ships is not ideal.
Value trends, cyclical positions and macroeconomic forecasts From the perspective of ship value, the container market has seen significant polarization, and the performance of the large container ship market is significantly better than that of the small container ship.
The chart below shows the daily changes in ship value of various types of standard container ships (5 years of age).
Judging from the changes last year, the value of Post Panamax has increased by 27% year-on-year (New Panamax and ULCV also follow a similar trend), Panamax has increased 17%, Handy (Handy) of 4%, a large branch ship (your feed ibuychem.
com/new/sjk?search_name=er&search_type=1" target="_blank">ER max) -6%.
ibuychem.
com/new/sjk?search_name=er&search_type=1" target="_blank">er to analyze the current value relative to the shipping industry as a whole cycle where the most clear way that the current value and long-term value of the median for comparison.
By comparing with the median long-term value, this set of data clearly shows that the market still has great potential for growth, especially in the Panamax container ship sector.
Finally, referring to third-party asset value forecasts based on macroeconomic fundamentals, all these ship types will show an upward trend in the next few years, while Panamax container ships show the greatest relative growth potential.
Conclusion
Conclusion Conclusion The
container ship market with the best supply and demand fundamentals is the post Panamax and above container ships.
However, the market has also responded, and the value of these types of ships has risen significantly, approaching the median long-term value.
In addition, compared with other container ship types, the macroeconomic forecast of the large container ship market is also relatively conservative.
The Panamax container ship sector has mixed ups and downs.
Historically, the fundamentals of supply and demand are not very good, and the rate of decline in demand is faster than the rate of decline in supply of this type of ship.
However, the latest data shows that this situation is being reversed.
If this momentum can be sustained, it may bring about a substantial increase in the value of ships and freight rates, thereby getting rid of the current market dilemma.
But it has to be said that this is basically just a difficult situation to survive, because the Panamax container ship market as a whole is still showing a shrinking trend.
Therefore, the key question is whether the rate of decrease in supply can be faster than the rate of decrease in demand, thereby bringing opportunities for short- and medium-term gains.
The overall data for small container ships is not very optimistic.
The increase in supply has generally exceeded the increase in demand, and the value of ships has declined slightly.
Compared with the cyclical position and macroeconomic forecasts of the Panamax container ship sector, the theoretical upside of the small container ship sector is also relatively large.
small.
