Industry | 2019-2020 National Real Estate Market Report

Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute released the "2019-2020 National Real Estate Market Report" on December 27.
The report pointed out that in 2019, the national real estate market experienced ups and downs.
In the first half of the year, there was a small spring in some cities, the housing market was heating up, and the prefectures and cities were even hotter.
In the second half of the year, the property market across the country generally cooled, and some cities were busy with new house discounts and promotions.
Looking ahead to 2020, we predict that the industry's characteristics will be: the bottom is proven, and the decline will be more than the rise.
Under the special background of the superposition of the three phases of "growth speed shift period, external pressure pain period, and early bubble digestion period", although policies will bottom out in 2020 and real estate financing will be stable and loose, the overall national market will still be explored.
At the end, the bottom is expected to be proved, but it is difficult to rebound significantly, and it is still tangled and consolidating at a low level.
At the same time, the regional differentiation is obvious.
The markets in the first-tier and strong second-tier regions, and the eastern metropolitan area where the market has cooled earlier will stabilize, and some indicators will rebound slightly; while the weak second-tier, broad third- and fourth-tier regions where the market has cooled down later, the market will continue to cool Bottom line; in terms of the most important indicator of housing prices, the number of falling cities will outnumber the number of rising cities across the country.
The report mainly contains the following contents: 1.
Prediction of economic trends 1.
Prediction of economic trends 1.
Global economy: downward pressure on the economy is still heavy 1.
Global economy: downward pressure on the economy is still heavy.
October 2019, International Monetary Fund (IMF) In the latest "World Economic Outlook Report" released, the world economic growth rate in 2019 was reduced to 3%, which was 0.
2 percentage points lower than the forecast value in July this year, which was the lowest level since the outbreak of the 2008 financial crisis.
The forecast for global economic growth in 2020 is lowered to 3.
4%, which is 0.
1 percentage point lower than the forecast in July.
The report pointed out that a notable feature of the sluggish economic growth in 2019 is that the decline of global manufacturing and the increase in trade barriers have led to a significant decline in investment and demand.
The main reason why economic growth is expected to pick up in 2020 compared to 2019 is that the economic performance of emerging and developing economies in Latin America, the Middle East, and Europe is expected to improve.
However, due to uncertainties in the prospects of some of the above-mentioned countries and other downside risks, the pace of global economic activity is likely to further slow down significantly.
In November 2019, the Global Economic Outlook report issued by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) lowered the forecast for global economic growth in 2020 from 3% in September to 2.
9%.
The decline in growth rate is largely due to the uncertainty brought about by trade disputes.
The growth rate of the total investment of the G20 fell from 5% at the beginning of 2018 to 1% in the first half of 2019.
This will increase the global economic output in the next two years.
The output is reduced by 0.
5%-0.
7%.
In November 2019, CICC issued a report that the downward pressure on global growth will increase in 2019, but policy support has increased.
Looking ahead, under the benchmark situation, the main keynote of the world in 2020 is risk mitigation and policy support; economic growth gradually bottoms out until it temporarily stabilizes.
2.
China's economy: economic growth has slowed down and stabilized 2.
China's economy: economic growth has slowed down and stabilized In 2019, affected by Sino-US and global trade frictions, the global economic and trade growth rate will slow down significantly in 2019, with major economies The economic growth rate has generally fallen, and the Chinese economy is also under greater downward pressure: the growth rate of total social retail sales has fallen, the growth rate of manufacturing investment has declined significantly, and only the growth rate of real estate development investment has remained at a relatively high level.
In 2019, my country's monetary growth target matches the nominal GDP growth rate, the credit cycle bottoms out and rebounds moderately, and the corporate inventory cycle bottoms out, and it is still in the destocking stage.
The rapid increase in pig prices in the second half of the year led to further constraints on monetary policy, and the effect of the expansion of fiscal policy has not yet been fully manifested in the short term, and it is difficult to change the downward trend of the economy.
The GDP growth rate in the third quarter of 2019 fell back to 6.
0%, and in the first three quarters was 6.
2%, which was a quarterly low for many years.
It is expected that the GDP growth rate for the whole year of 2019 will be about 6.
1%.
At present, most institutions predict that the GDP growth rate in 2020 will be between 5.
7% and 6.
1%.
The economy will still be under downward pressure in 2020, but it may be more resilient.
From the perspective of the external environment, the current connection between China’s economy and the global economy is becoming increasingly obvious.
The expected further decline in trade and investment in major global economies next year will have a certain impact on China’s economy.
In addition, although the Sino-US trade agreement reached the first phase, The United States will hold a presidential election next year, and Sino-US friction will still be an uncertain factor affecting the economy.
From an internal point of view, real estate development investment is expected to decline in 2020, while manufacturing investment is unlikely to rebound sharply in the short term.
Infrastructure investment may further support the bottom, but the marginal utility is diminishing, and exports are unlikely to improve significantly under the uncertain global trade.
, The economy is still facing certain downward pressure.
2.
Real estate policy prediction II.
Real estate policy prediction 1.
Policy direction: the positioning of housing and housing will remain unchanged 1.
Policy direction: the positioning of housing and housing will remain unchanged The 2019 Central Economic Work Conference made it clear that the need to increase urban difficulties for the masses Housing security work, strengthen urban renewal and upgrading of stock housing, do a good job in the transformation of old communities in cities and towns, and vigorously develop rental housing.
It is necessary to adhere to the positioning of houses for living, not for speculation, and fully implement the long-term management and control mechanism of city-specific policies to stabilize land prices, house prices, and expectations, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
This statement clarifies the positioning, development mechanism and goals of China's property market in 2020.
2.
Supply-side policy: Strengthen the development of the three types of housing 2.
Supply-side policy: Strengthen the development of the three types of housing We study the relevant policies of the supply-side from the perspective of housing development.
According to the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, in fact, various new support policies will be formed in terms of social housing, renovation of old communities, and rental housing.
First, affordable housing.
In 2020, the housing security work for the urban poor will be increased, and the construction of housing security will not be relaxed.
Especially in 2020, we will build a well-off society in an all-round way, and the concept of a well-off housing will increase, and the construction of affordable housing will also become a content that needs to be paid attention to in real estate investment.
Second, the transformation of old communities.
In 2020, the transformation of old communities will obviously be strengthened, and major cities will continue to increase the intensity of pilot projects and the promotion of benchmarking projects.
Many new investment opportunities will be formed in areas such as elevator installation, parking space installation, and pipeline renovation.
And related supporting policies will also be followed up, such as provident fund withdrawal, financial subsidies and so on.
Third, lease housing.
Although the development of the leasing market in 2019 will face many problems, it is expected that there will still be efforts in 2020.
This is related to the development goal of simultaneous leasing and sales.
It is expected that there will be various new measures in terms of land supply and security, product innovation and so on.
For example, in the field of product innovation, including talent rental housing, blue-collar apartment housing, etc.
, will become the focus of efforts on the supply side.
3.
Demand-side policy: the probability of loosening housing purchase policy increases.
3.
Demand-side policy: the probability of loosening housing purchase policy increases.
It is expected that various direct or indirect loosening actions will increase throughout the year.
First, from the perspective of relaxation tools, it will involve the re-adjustment of the first home subscription qualification (relaxation of housing subscription and loan subscription), relaxation of housing purchase policies for talents and other specific personnel, and relaxation of housing purchase policies in areas with high inventory pressure.
, Relaxation of social security payment conditions, loosening of mortgage policies, etc.
Second, from the perspective of the timing of relaxation, the probability of relaxation in the first half of the year is small, and if market pressure is greater in the future, the probability of relaxation in the second half of the year will increase.
Third, from the perspective of relaxed cities, some provincial capitals or second-tier cities will relax first.
4.
Price-side policy: price stability orientation remains unchanged 4.
Price-side policy: price stability orientation remains unchanged.
In 2020, the control of housing prices will continue, and the concept of housing price stability will continue to be emphasized, but this will also be based on different housing price cycles.
Adjustment.
As the market cools, price limits for new houses in some cities are expected to relax.
At the same time, if the market conditions are relatively sluggish, the house purchase policy will be loosened at this time, and the policy level will also have a greater tolerance for the rebound in housing prices.
Of course, the subsequent consideration of housing price changes will take more into account the real estate market in various regions, especially the GDP trends, CPI trends, residents' disposable income, and the structure of real estate transactions.
At the same time, price control will be more flexible for some high-priced land projects.
3.
Anticipation of the real estate market3.
Real estate market prediction (1) Market supply (1) Market supply 1.
The area of ​​land purchased by national real estate development companies is expected to decrease by about 6% in 2020.
The area of ​​land purchased by national development companies is expected to decrease by about 6% in 2020.
The main reasons are: First, the national commercial housing sales cycle is already in the upward phase, the newly started area in 2019 will continue to record highs, and the inventory of commercial housing will increase; second, the Politburo meeting on 7.
30 in 2019 first mentioned that “real estate should not be used as a short-term economic stimulus.
After “means”, market expectations have changed, and developers are afraid to acquire more land; third, most developers have a high debt ratio, and the financing environment has continued to tighten since the second half of this year, and there is no abundant funds for large amounts of land; There are variables in the pace of land supply by local governments.
Although the Ministry of Natural Resources requires localities to adjust the pace of land promotion according to different residential de-saturation cycles, as the city cools and land auctions increase, local governments may be unwilling to provide more land.
2.
The newly-started area of ​​houses by national real estate development enterprises is expected to drop by about 6% in 2020.
In 2020, the newly-started area of ​​houses by national real estate development enterprises will see a slight decline, and it is expected to drop by about 6% year-on-year.
The main reasons are: First, the area of ​​land purchased by development companies across the country has fallen sharply in 2019, and the amount of new construction lags behind the amount of land purchased, and will decline accordingly in 2020; the second is that due to the cold market, most cities have new developments.
The sales situation is unsatisfactory, and developers have a strong wait-and-see mood and postpone the start of construction; third, considering the current difficulty and high cost of financing for real estate companies, the sales of commercial housing will likely decline in 2020, and the pressure on real estate companies’ funds is expected to remain high, so housing New construction starts will also decrease.
3.
National real estate development investment is expected to increase by about 6% in 2020In 2020, the national real estate development investment will maintain a slight growth trend, and the annual growth rate is expected to be around 6% year-on-year.
The main reasons: First, relative to the housing sales indicators, the development investment indicators are lagging.
In 2019, the growth rate of commercial housing sales area dropped to near zero, and the development investment growth rate in 2020 will lag behind; the second is the expected land for real estate enterprises nationwide in 2020.
The floor space purchased and the floor space newly started will decline slightly, which will drag down the growth rate of real estate investment; third, real estate development investment is a concept of monetary value and has strong stickiness.
Since the beginning of this century, there has never been an annual decline, and the lowest value is 2015.
The annual growth rate is 1%, and it is estimated that it will not turn from positive to negative in 2020.
4.
100-city inventory and de-chemical cycle: It is expected to increase slightly.
In 2020, the inventory of 100 cities across the country is expected to rise slowly, but the performance may be different in different months.
For example, in the first half of the year, it is expected that the market will still be characterized by cooling, and real estate companies may still accelerate their launches, which will lead to a faster increase in inventory.
In the second half of the year, it is expected that the policy will begin to be loose, the rate of inventory rise will slow down, and the inventory pressure will be released.
From the perspective of the sales cycle, it is affected by both inventory and transaction data.
From the perspective of transaction data, it is expected that the temperature will continue to cool in the first half of the year, and the de-chemical cycle will be lengthened.
In the second half of the year, especially in the fourth quarter, the de-chemical cycle data is expected to be stable.
Based on such judgments, we simulated the general trend of inventory and stock-sales ratio data in 2020.
We believe that by the end of 2020, the inventory scale of 100 cities across the country may increase by 5% year-on-year, and the inventory-sales ratio will reach the 13-month level.
Based on the overall trend of the year, such indicators will generally be in a relatively reasonable range.
(2) Market transactions (2) Market transactions 1.
The national commercial housing sales area is expected to drop by about 3% in 2020In 2020, the national commercial housing sales area may show a slight downward trend, and it is expected to drop by about 3% year-on-year for the whole year.
The main reasons: First, the sales volume of commercial housing has been increasing for 5 consecutive years.
The transaction volume in 2019 reached a historical high.
The high transaction volume for several consecutive years has overdrawn part of the purchasing power.
It is expected that the sales volume of commercial housing will decline slightly in 2020; the second is from In terms of city classification, the transaction volume in the first-tier cities that are expected to cool earlier will increase slightly in 2020, and the transaction volume in the second-tier cities will be basically the same.
Due to the continuous increase in transaction volume in the third and fourth-tier cities in the past two to three years, there are quite a few third- and fourth-tier cities.
In the state of net population outflow, the transaction volume is expected to decline, which will drag down the small decline in the sales area of ​​commercial housing across the country.
Third, in terms of regions, due to the small decline in transaction volume for three consecutive years in the eastern region, transaction volume may increase slightly in 2020.
The transaction volume in the central region may be almost the same as this year, and the western region has not yet cooled down due to the latest launch.
There is a high probability that the growth rate of transaction volume will turn negative in 2020, and the decline in transaction volume in the northeast region will narrow.
(3) Market price (3) Market price 1.
The average land purchase price of national real estate development enterprises is expected to increase by about 2% in 2020.
The average land purchase price of national real estate enterprises is expected to rise slightly by about 2% in 2020.
The main reasons: First, the property market as a whole is still in a downward cycle in 2020, and developers are relatively tight in funds, and their cautious attitudes in purchasing land will not change; second, from the perspective of land price and housing price ratio, a large amount of land has been accumulated from 2013 to 2017.
Land price bubble, the land market has cooled slightly in 2018 and 2019, and will continue to fall in 2020; third, land prices are easy to rise but hard to fall, and only a slight decline has occurred in 2011 since the beginning of this century.
2.
The national average transaction price of commercial housing is expected to rise by about 5% in 2020In 2020, the national average transaction price of commercial housing will continue to rise, and the annual growth rate is expected to be around 5%.
The main reasons: First, it is expected that the national property market will continue to cool down in 2020, and transaction prices will also weaken; second, unlike specific cities, national housing prices are very sticky and easy to rise but never fall.
This century is only in the 2008 global financial crisis Therefore, in the absence of an economic or financial crisis, the whole year of 2020 will continue to show an upward trend; third, because price changes lag behind transaction volume, the growth rate of national commercial housing sales in 2018 and 2019 has been close 0.
Compared with previous years, the market has significantly cooled down.
It is expected that 2020 will be similar to 2014.
While the volume of transactions will fall, prices will continue to rise, but the rate of increase will narrow compared to this year.
3.
The number of second-hand housing prices in 70 cities is expected to fall more than the number of rising months in 2020.
In 2020, it is expected that the number of second-hand housing prices in 70 cities will fall more than the number of rising months.
To the maximum drop.
The main reasons: First, from the perspective of market rules, as of November 2019, housing prices in this round of real estate cycle have risen for 56 months, which is longer and larger than the past few short cycles, so it will inevitably experience a longer period.
Time of the price adjustment stage.
At present, no matter from the perspective of the land market, the new house market or the second-hand housing market, the inflection point of the market adjustment has appeared.
It is expected that the second-hand housing prices of 70 cities will begin to fall early next year.
The second is that this round of real estate cycle is different from the past.
Commodity housing inventory has been significantly de-escalated but has not rebounded significantly, and the overall level is not high; at the same time, the overall monetary environment has been loosening since 2018, and this round of core factors affecting the upward trend of CPI The pig cycle is expected to decline in the second half of 2020, when monetary policy will have more room, and the decline in housing prices may narrow around the middle of the year.
Comprehensive considerations, under the current "stability" expectations, it is difficult for the largest decline in house prices to reach the level of the second half of 2014, and house price adjustments will be relatively slow or undergo a longer consolidation period.
core