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The short-term urea market has lost all the good news.
To evaluate the lack of good news in the current domestic urea market, it means not only the "lost" good, but also the "disappointment that most people in the industry regard as good hopes before, after the good times have gone through the air".
"sense.
Downstream dealers are generally fatigued.
After all, in the spring ploughing, the result of hard work in exchange for meager profits or even losses.
In the eyes of downstream dealers, the flexible and changeable ex-factory price of urea has a somewhat unpredictable feeling of the stock market.
Since the beginning of the year, the industry has been optimistic about the tight supply and demand in the first quarter to the cost support, from the policy of restricting production to the start of spring plowing, and the industry's lack of voice in bidding in India.
Along the way, I only knew what disappointment was.
As of at least the end of March, my country's urea market has no hope of gains, and the short-term decline is obvious.
India's bidding has prompted changes in Hong Kong's existence.
The 24th of this month is the closing date for India’s first round of official urea bidding this year, although it was previously 3.
The 70,000-ton tender was tested and obtained the so-called low-priced source of goods at that time (FOB price of 235 US dollars/ton), but the bidding of participants in this large-scale tender was obviously more intense.
According to the author's understanding, just when domestic traders invested 234~237 US dollars/ton India east coast arrival price and felt guilty, the lowest arrival price on the west coast has been quoted at 228 USD/ton, and the lowest arrival price on the east coast.
Also immediately appeared 232 US dollars / ton.
As a result, China's urea supply is not far away.
The reply received from domestic traders was "waiting for a counter-offer".
One sentence is too much helplessness.
The sea freight from China to the east coast of India is about US$12/ton.
If traders compromise US$232/ton, the FOB price of urea in my country may fall below US$220/ton, and the calculated new cargo port price is only 1,460 yuan/ton.
, This price is obviously not reported for the current supply and demand environment during the spring ploughing period, but more like a direct reference to the domestic urea cost line.
In fact, during the Indian bidding period, the FOB price of urea granules in my country was 222 US dollars/ton, but it was limited to the agglomerated urea supply at the port last year.
It can be inferred that some of my country’s Hong Kong stocks will be stale.
The situation has compromised India’s low prices, and some of the urea in the port in the past two months is of acceptable quality, and the consignors have no intention of "cutting the meat" or transferring the return to domestic sales.
In particular, the ports of Yantai and Qingdao have seen signs of returning from the port.
The price of urea may be bottoming before and after Qingming.
With the unsuccessful rounds of speculation in the domestic urea market, the industry's expectations for the market outlook have gradually calmed down.
The argument for environmental inspections has become environmental protection supervision.
Urea companies with recycling devices have "no chance" with environmental protection policies to limit production, and the industry's operating rate has gradually rebounded; domestic agricultural spring ploughing demand is more than half, and local markets are rotating, and it is always difficult to see a decent centralized procurement market.
; Industrial demand is slow to follow up and there are uncertainties, downstream manufacturers mostly operate on-demand or on-demand procurement, which has extremely limited motivation for urea to increase.
In addition, the bottleneck in the export of urea has not been resolved by this Indian tender, but has made some of the recent sources of goods in the port choose to return to domestic sales.
In summary, with the increase in the operating rate of domestic urea enterprises, the contradiction between market supply and demand has been paid attention to.
The overall domestic demand may be delayed or bearish, and the price of urea has no favorable support for the time being.
Coupled with the recent disturbance of the source of goods returning from the port, the price of urea may experience a significant decline.
As the saying goes, "Grow melons and beans before and after Qingming Festival", northern my country has just experienced a round of cooling and precipitation climate.
It is hoped that there will be a round of centralized procurement before and after Qingming Festival, which will build the bottom of this round of urea price drop.
To evaluate the lack of good news in the current domestic urea market, it means not only the "lost" good, but also the "disappointment that most people in the industry regard as good hopes before, after the good times have gone through the air".
"sense.
Downstream dealers are generally fatigued.
After all, in the spring ploughing, the result of hard work in exchange for meager profits or even losses.
In the eyes of downstream dealers, the flexible and changeable ex-factory price of urea has a somewhat unpredictable feeling of the stock market.
Since the beginning of the year, the industry has been optimistic about the tight supply and demand in the first quarter to the cost support, from the policy of restricting production to the start of spring plowing, and the industry's lack of voice in bidding in India.
Along the way, I only knew what disappointment was.
As of at least the end of March, my country's urea market has no hope of gains, and the short-term decline is obvious.
India's bidding has prompted changes in Hong Kong's existence.
The 24th of this month is the closing date for India’s first round of official urea bidding this year, although it was previously 3.
The 70,000-ton tender was tested and obtained the so-called low-priced source of goods at that time (FOB price of 235 US dollars/ton), but the bidding of participants in this large-scale tender was obviously more intense.
According to the author's understanding, just when domestic traders invested 234~237 US dollars/ton India east coast arrival price and felt guilty, the lowest arrival price on the west coast has been quoted at 228 USD/ton, and the lowest arrival price on the east coast.
Also immediately appeared 232 US dollars / ton.
As a result, China's urea supply is not far away.
The reply received from domestic traders was "waiting for a counter-offer".
One sentence is too much helplessness.
The sea freight from China to the east coast of India is about US$12/ton.
If traders compromise US$232/ton, the FOB price of urea in my country may fall below US$220/ton, and the calculated new cargo port price is only 1,460 yuan/ton.
, This price is obviously not reported for the current supply and demand environment during the spring ploughing period, but more like a direct reference to the domestic urea cost line.
In fact, during the Indian bidding period, the FOB price of urea granules in my country was 222 US dollars/ton, but it was limited to the agglomerated urea supply at the port last year.
It can be inferred that some of my country’s Hong Kong stocks will be stale.
The situation has compromised India’s low prices, and some of the urea in the port in the past two months is of acceptable quality, and the consignors have no intention of "cutting the meat" or transferring the return to domestic sales.
In particular, the ports of Yantai and Qingdao have seen signs of returning from the port.
The price of urea may be bottoming before and after Qingming.
With the unsuccessful rounds of speculation in the domestic urea market, the industry's expectations for the market outlook have gradually calmed down.
The argument for environmental inspections has become environmental protection supervision.
Urea companies with recycling devices have "no chance" with environmental protection policies to limit production, and the industry's operating rate has gradually rebounded; domestic agricultural spring ploughing demand is more than half, and local markets are rotating, and it is always difficult to see a decent centralized procurement market.
; Industrial demand is slow to follow up and there are uncertainties, downstream manufacturers mostly operate on-demand or on-demand procurement, which has extremely limited motivation for urea to increase.
In addition, the bottleneck in the export of urea has not been resolved by this Indian tender, but has made some of the recent sources of goods in the port choose to return to domestic sales.
In summary, with the increase in the operating rate of domestic urea enterprises, the contradiction between market supply and demand has been paid attention to.
The overall domestic demand may be delayed or bearish, and the price of urea has no favorable support for the time being.
Coupled with the recent disturbance of the source of goods returning from the port, the price of urea may experience a significant decline.
As the saying goes, "Grow melons and beans before and after Qingming Festival", northern my country has just experienced a round of cooling and precipitation climate.
It is hoped that there will be a round of centralized procurement before and after Qingming Festival, which will build the bottom of this round of urea price drop.
