Increased uncertainty in the glyphosate market

As of 2015, there are 29 countries in the world planting genetically modified crops, of which 21 are developing countries and 8 are developed countries.
The research and development targets are also more extensive, covering at least 35 families and more than 200 species, involving soybeans, Important crops such as corn, cotton, rapeseed, rice and wheat, as well as vegetables, fruits, pastures, flowers, forests and special plants, etc.
, have more diverse research objectives, ranging from traditional traits such as insect resistance and herbicide resistance to stress resistance and resistance.
Diseases, quality improvement, nutrition and health care expansion, genetic modification technology is more accurate, and breakthroughs in gene editing technology and fixed-point recombination technology have made genetic operations safe and precise
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? Glyphosate is currently the world's most important herbicide resistant to genetically modified crops, with a market value of US$6 billion.
It is the world's largest single product of pesticides.
Based on the strong development momentum of global genetically modified research, it still has a good market prospect
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The glyphosate-resistant crops that have been successfully developed worldwide include rice, tobacco, peanuts, potatoes, wheat, sunflowers, tomatoes, carrots, onions, spinach, pumpkins, papaya, ryegrass, oak and more than 20 crops.
They are glyphosate.
Phosphine provides a vast rigid market
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? At present, the demand for glyphosate is very sluggish.
The export volume and price of glyphosate in China have reached new lows in the past five years.
There are many uncertainties in the future market.
The main aspects are as follows:? Assessment
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For example, the European Union began to prepare to ban the registration of glyphosate.
As a result, under the interests of all parties, the original 15-year registration period was re-controlled to 7 years, and a suitable substitute for glyphosate must be found within these 7 years.
The resolution has been reduced by 8 years from the original time, and the public is not allowed to use it, but only for professionals.
The industry believes that the EU re-evaluation has a guiding role, and other agencies do not rule out similar measures
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? The second is the increase in negative reports and public opinion on the insecurity of glyphosate
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According to foreign media reports, the World Health Organization has warned that "the use of glyphosate herbicides may cause cancer," and the European Union has also restricted the use of glyphosate, mainly because glyphosate affects human health
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? The third is the degree of substitution in the post-paraquat era
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According to regulations, the domestic sales and use of paraquat water will be stopped after July 1, 2016, but the export business will be retained.

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Although glyphosate and paraquat are both biocidal herbicides, paraquat is a contact herbicide and has a fast weed-killing effect; while glyphosate is a systemic mechanism, weeds are completely eliminated, but the effect is relatively slow.
Paraquat The unique characteristics of rapid contact and cutting of the grass without removing the roots make it irreplaceable in many aspects such as no-tillage, rapid crop rotation, and soil and water conservation
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? Fourth, the economic environment for glyphosate may be less than expected
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It is expected that the global economic recovery in 2016 will still be weak, the prices of major agricultural products will continue to fall, and the inventory levels will increase.
A series of negative factors will lead to weak global pesticide market demand.
In a severe market environment, a general decline in the sales performance of glyphosate companies is a high probability.
Event
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? Fifth, abnormal weather affects the product market
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El Niño caused the weather to be more chaotic in 2016.
According to NASA data, the El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific shows no signs of weakening.
Meteorological experts predict that the situation will be worse in 2016 and may become the most destructive year of El Niño.
The uncertainty of the weather is bound to affect the production, procurement and storage of glyphosate
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? Sixth, environmental protection and overcapacity have forced the supply-side reform of the glyphosate industry
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At present, glyphosate is in the cycle of deep de-capacity.
China's glyphosate production capacity is about 900,000 tons, Monsanto 450,000 tons, and the current market demand is only more than 800,000 tons.
The environmental protection situation of China's glyphosate is still severe.
Under the dual pressure of surplus and environmental protection, once the pesticide industry starts to implement supply-side reforms under environmental protection constraints, the glyphosate industry pattern will be completely reversed
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? Seventh is the promotion area of ​​genetically modified crops and the open policy of genetically modified seeds
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According to the data of the International Agricultural Biotechnology Application Service Organization, the global planting area of ​​genetically modified crops has exceeded 180 million hectares, and the planting scale is at a historical high
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At present, my country only approves the commercial application of two crops, genetically modified insect-resistant cotton and genetically modified virus-resistant papaya.
During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, my country will strengthen the research and development of cotton and corn varieties and promote new genetically modified insect-resistant cotton.
, The industrialization process of major products such as insect-resistant corn
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The industry believes that once the industrialization of genetically modified corn and other important crops is realized, it will completely change the high cost of domestic corn and other varieties and the lack of price competitiveness compared with foreign agricultural products
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At present, the domestic corn planting area is 500 million mu and the soybean planting area is 100 million mu.
Once the commercialization of genetically modified plants is opened in the future, it will directly increase the demand for the use of glyphosate and other genetically modified pesticides
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? The analysis agency believes that the glyphosate market is still under pressure in 2016, and the overall price is expected to be weakly consolidated in the range of 16,000 to 20,000 yuan/ton
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The main basis is: the supply market continues to consolidate and "shuffle", and the overall supply will remain sufficient; after the market sluggishness since 2015, the purchasing market will continue to cautiously wait and see the purchasing mentality; the raw material market and the glyphosate market will interact with each other.
Drag"
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At the current price of 18,000 yuan/ton, glyphosate has suffered a total loss of small and medium-sized production capacity, and there is no room for survival.
Shutdown production capacity continues to increase
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According to the author’s organization, the current actual production capacity of glyphosate is less than 400,000 tons, and the industry’s normal export demand is also between 400,000 and 500,000 tons
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The current capacity gap has already appeared, and once it encounters event catalysis, it will lead to a skyrocketing price
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