In the second half of the year, 400 million live pigs will be available for slaughter in my country?

According to pig price data, on August 10, the domestic slaughter price of ternary pigs rose to 15.

On August 9, the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) data for July was released

Since the beginning of this year, as the effects of various policies and measures for stabilizing production and supply in the early stage have further shown, the production of pigs in newly-added, renovated and expanded farms has continued to be released, pig production has quickly recovered, and the number of stocks, slaughters and production have increased

Summary review for the first half of 2021JQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Live pig inventoryJQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

At present, the number of live pigs in China has basically recovered to more than 90% of the normal state

 JQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Data source: China Business Industry Research Institute DatabaseJQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Slaughter of pigsJQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

The fundamental reason for the decline in pig prices is the gradual improvement in market supply capacity

 JQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Data source: China Business Industry Research Institute DatabaseJQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Pig slaughterJQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Statistics show that in June 2021, the number of pigs slaughtered by slaughter companies above designated size nationwide was 22 million, a year-on-year increase of 66%

 JQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Data source: China Business Industry Research Institute DatabaseJQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Pork productionJQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Data show that in the first half of the year, China's live pig production capacity continued to recover, with a pork output of 27.

 JQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Pork priceJQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Data show that pork prices in China have fallen for 9 consecutive months year-on-year, with an average drop of 19.

 JQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Pig food pricesJQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

From June 21 to June 25, the national average pig-to-food ratio was 4.

 JQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Development forecast for the second half of 2021JQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

1.

According to the company's report, pork prices rebounded rapidly at the end of June.

2.

　　The production and supply restrictions of bulk commodities may have an impact on the supply side.

　　3.

　　With the acceleration of China’s industrialization and urbanization, new changes have taken place in the consumption demand for livestock products of urban and rural residents: rural residents’ ration consumption continues to decline, livestock product consumption increases rapidly, urban residents’ livestock product consumption continues to upgrade, and demand for high-quality and safe livestock products continues Increase

　　On August 9, the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) data for July was released
.
Affected by the drop in food prices, especially pork prices, the CPI rose by 1.
0% year-on-year in July, a decrease of 0.
1 percentage points from the previous month
.
Looking ahead, the industry believes that in the second half of the year, live pig prices will stabilize and consolidate, and prices are expected to maintain a moderate increase throughout the year
.
JQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Since the beginning of this year, as the effects of various policies and measures for stabilizing production and supply in the early stage have further shown, the production of pigs in newly-added, renovated and expanded farms has continued to be released, pig production has quickly recovered, and the number of stocks, slaughters and production have increased
.
JQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Summary review for the first half of 2021JQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Live pig inventoryJQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　At present, the number of live pigs in China has basically recovered to more than 90% of the normal state
.
At the end of the second quarter, there were 439.
11 million live pigs, a year-on-year increase of 99.
15 million, an increase of 29.
2%, and an increase of 5.
6% over the end of the first quarter; among them, there were 45.
64 million breeding sows, an increase of 9.
34 million over the same period last year, an increase of 25.
7%.
At the end of the quarter, it increased by 5.
7%
.
JQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

 JQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Data source: China Business Industry Research Institute DatabaseJQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Slaughter of pigsJQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The fundamental reason for the decline in pig prices is the gradual improvement in market supply capacity
.
Since the beginning of this year, the national stock of reproductive sows has continued to grow, basic production capacity has continued to recover, and live pig production has increased significantly
.
In the first half of the year, 334.
42 million live pigs were slaughtered, an increase of 86.
39 million over the same period last year, an increase of 34.
4%
.
JQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

 JQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Data source: China Business Industry Research Institute DatabaseJQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Pig slaughterJQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Statistics show that in June 2021, the number of pigs slaughtered by slaughter companies above designated size nationwide was 22 million, a year-on-year increase of 66%
.
In the first half of 2021, the slaughter volume of designated hog slaughter companies above designated size across the country was 108,850,400, a year-on-year increase of 45.
1%
.
JQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

 JQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Data source: China Business Industry Research Institute DatabaseJQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Pork productionJQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Data show that in the first half of the year, China's live pig production capacity continued to recover, with a pork output of 27.
15 million tons, an increase of 7.
17 million tons, an increase of 35.
9%
.
JQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

 JQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Pork priceJQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Data show that pork prices in China have fallen for 9 consecutive months year-on-year, with an average drop of 19.
3% in the first half of the year, affecting the CPI drop by about 0.
45 percentage points
.
Since July, the price of pigs has basically stabilized near the cost line, slightly lower than the cost line.
The price of live pigs on the market is about 15 yuan per kilogram, which is 57.
9% lower than the 35.
68 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year
.
JQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

 JQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Pig food pricesJQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　From June 21 to June 25, the national average pig-to-food ratio was 4.
90:1, which was lower than 5:1.
At that time, the central and local governments will start the work of purchasing and storing pork reserves
.
As of July 16, the national pig food price ratio was 5.
62
.
The effect of purchasing and storage shows that the price of pig food has risen above the warning range.
Since July, the price of pig food in the country has been above the first-level warning range of excessive decline for two consecutive weeks
.
JQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

 JQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Development forecast for the second half of 2021JQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　1.
Pork prices are expected to fluctuate upwards slightlyJQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　According to the company's report, pork prices rebounded rapidly at the end of June.
From June 23 to 28, the price of pigs in many places increased by about 4 yuan per kilogram, a cumulative increase of 35%
.
Consumption is expected to increase in the second half of the year.
In addition, the cold wave from January to February this year will affect the number of new piglets on national scale pig farms.
Corresponding to the number of pigs for slaughter and pork supply from July to August, there may be a periodical decrease, which will support the price increase to a certain extent.
, But the possibility of a sharp rise is unlikely
.
Reasons: First, the price of pigs continued to fall in the first half of the year, and the phenomenon of farmers' pressure on slaughter and reluctance to sell was more prominent
.
Second, from the perspective of the inertia of production growth, the production of reproductive sows and live pigs are currently in the growth stage, and the supply of pork will be guaranteed in the second half of the year
.
JQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　2.
Pork supply can be guaranteed in the second half of the yearJQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The production and supply restrictions of bulk commodities may have an impact on the supply side.
The supply-demand gap will last longer, but there will be no imbalance between supply and demand.
Especially for the supply of the leading varieties of bulk commodities, the current pig stock is still The increase, coupled with the replenishment of imports and frozen stocks, will ensure supply in the second half of the year
.
JQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　3.
The domestic pork consumption market has great potential for developmentJQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　With the acceleration of China’s industrialization and urbanization, new changes have taken place in the consumption demand for livestock products of urban and rural residents: rural residents’ ration consumption continues to decline, livestock product consumption increases rapidly, urban residents’ livestock product consumption continues to upgrade, and demand for high-quality and safe livestock products continues Increase
.
With the continuous improvement of residents' income level and the in-depth implementation of strategies to expand domestic demand and coordinate urban and rural development, pork consumption demand will continue to grow rigidly
.
The increasing demand for high food safety standards and high-quality pork will bring good development opportunities for pig production enterprises that adopt a large-scale integrated business model
.
JQh China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry