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Yuzhu's sluggish market has lasted for 5 years, but in the second half of 2021, after its market ushered in a rapid rise, the market sentiment is increasing, in the future, is it possible that the Yuzhu market will continue to soar?
In this issue, the big data platform of Tiandi Cloud Atlas Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry analyzes the market of this variety based on production and marketing data
.
First, market changes: inventory continues to be tight, and popularity continues to rise
Market conditions: driven by demand, the source of jade and bamboo sales has accelerated significantly, because the volume of goods this year is still tight, merchants are reluctant to sell mentality, the market is stable and rising, the current market Hunan jade bamboo price 50-53 yuan (kilogram price, the same below), northeast jade bamboo price 30-32 yuan
.
Origin market: Affected by the epidemic, the number of merchants seeking goods in the production area has decreased significantly, coupled with the abnormal weather this year, the production capacity of jade and bamboo has decreased slightly, and the willingness of cargo holders to sell is strong, and the market continues to be strong
.
At present, the price of Hunan jade bamboo is 62-68 yuan, the price of Hunan jade bamboo selection is 72-78 yuan, the price of Zhejiang small jade bamboo is 37-40 yuan, the price of Liaoning jade bamboo is 25-28 yuan, the price of Jilin jade bamboo is 24-26 yuan, and the price of Anhui wild jade bamboo is 36-40 yuan
。
Second, historical prices: supply and demand have reversed, and the market is still rising
Figure 1: Price trend of jade and bamboo market from 2014 to 2022
From the perspective of historical prices, in the past 10 years, the jade and bamboo market has gone through 2 stages:
The first stage (2014-2016): the successful domestication of wild animals, the surge in jade and bamboo production capacity and the market entered a downward channel
.
After years of experiments, in 2014, there were successively cultivated jade and bamboo resources across the country, and the price fell from 75.
00 yuan in that year to 21.
00 yuan in 2016, a decrease of 72.
00%.
However, under the stimulation of high prices in the early stage, various major production areas worked hard to produce, resulting in serious overcapacity, so that in the following years, the jade and bamboo market continued to operate
at a low level.
The second stage (2017-2022): the domestic seed resources have plummeted, wild resources cannot make up the demand gap, and the market has steadily recovered
.
From 2017 to 2020, the price of jade and bamboo continued to fluctuate at 22.
5-26.
5 yuan, and in the face of the continuous sluggish market, farmers in the production areas have switched to producing other cash crops with higher returns, resulting in a rapid reduction
in jade and bamboo production for four years.
In 2021, as the social inventory of Yuzhu continues to be digested, some merchants began to wait for the opportunity, and the price gradually increased from 25 yuan to 47 yuan in 2022, an increase of 88.
00%.
3.
Production distribution: wild resources are widely distributed, and the production capacity of household seed resources accounts for a high proportion
Figure 2: Distribution of jade bamboo family species and wild resources
From the perspective of resource distribution: wild resources show multi-province distribution, while domestic species resources are relatively concentrated
.
Among the jade and bamboo currently circulating in the market, wild resources are mainly distributed in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Hebei and other places, mainly in the northeast region; Domestic seed resources are mainly distributed in Hunan, Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and the cultivation and production of domestic jade and bamboo in Hunan rank first
in the country.
Due to the large production capacity of domestic jade and bamboo, and the fat meat, it is deeply loved by consumers, with a market share of more than
70%.
However, due to the rapid reduction in the production of domestic jade and bamboo in recent years, the original supply balance has caused a shortage of demand due to the decline in domestic seed production capacity, which has promoted the price of jade and bamboo to rise
.
4.
Production and planting: In 2021, the income per mu of jade and bamboo will exceed 20,000 yuan
Figure 3: Income and expenditure of jade and bamboo household seed resources
From the perspective of mu production expenditure: the mu output expenditure of jade bamboo has risen
due to the rapid rise in seed and seedling prices.
From 2018 to the first half of 2021, the price of jade and bamboo continued to fall, resulting in the transformation of some production areas, and the price of seeds and seedlings also fell, and the mu production expenditure fell from 11,800 yuan/mu in 2018 to 08,300 yuan/mu in the first half of 2021, a decrease of 29.
66%.
In the context of three consecutive years of production reduction, Yuzhu ushered in a rise in the market due to the gap in demand, resulting in a rise in the price of seeds and seedlings, and from the second half of 2021 to 2022, the production expenditure of Yuzhu mu rose from 08,300 yuan / mu to 13,200 yuan / mu, an increase of 59.
04%.
At present, the production cost of jade bamboo has been higher than the same period in 2018, and in the future, as the number of people involved in planting continues to increase, the basic expenditure of production input such as manpower, material resources, seedlings and seedlings will also increase, and production costs will rise again
.
From the perspective of mu production income: Yuzhu's mu production income has grown rapidly
due to the rise in the market.
From 2018 to 2019, the income from the mu of domestic jade and bamboo fluctuated in the range of 1.
24-10,300 yuan / mu, and the income and expenditure per mu were basically flat, making many growers unprofitable, and the accelerated shrinkage of production was more obvious
during this period.
From 2020 to 2022, with the continuous decrease in the land area of domestically planted jade and bamboo, coupled with the good digestion of social inventory, and the reversal of supply and demand, the income from domestically planted jade and bamboo mu production rose from 10,800 yuan in 2020 to 22,000 yuan in 2022, an increase of 103.
70%.
At present, the income from home jade and bamboo cultivation is very attractive to growers, but in the past few years, the shadow of "medicine hurts farmers", farmers' enthusiasm for planting has not recovered, if the income from home jade and bamboo can continue to grow, it will stimulate the recovery of production in various production areas, and the future surge in production capacity will appear again
.
V.
Summary: Prices continue to rise, and market risks will multiply
1.
The continuous rise in prices promotes the increase in the mining of wild resources Jade bamboo is coordinated and supplemented by wild and domestic resources to meet market demand
.
As the market continues to rise, domestic seed resources cannot quickly fill the demand gap due to years of production reduction, resulting in a significant increase in the amount of wild resource extraction and gradually increasing supply pressure
.
2.
The significant increase in net income per mu will stimulate rapid recovery of production It takes about 2 years for the production of jade and bamboo to be planted, and the current net income of growers per mu is about
5,000 yuan per year.
There has been an increase relative to other cash crops, but the willingness of growers to grow is not very strong
.
However, as the market of jade and bamboo continues to rise in the future, the number of people involved in planting will continue to increase, and production will recover
rapidly.
To sum up, under the background of rapid production reduction for many consecutive years, the social inventory has been fully digested, providing a solid foundation
for the rise of the jade and bamboo market.
Although the market supply of jade bamboo is composed of two parts: domestic resources and wild resources, because the supply of wild resources is less than 30% all year round, stimulated by high prices, even if the production capacity of wild products increases rapidly, it cannot fill the gap
in demand for domestic jade bamboo.
Therefore, in the future, the price of jade and bamboo will continue to rise, and when the market price reaches 55-60 yuan, the market risk of jade and bamboo will be multiplied
due to the recovery of production.
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