In the first half of the year, corn, soybean meal, fish meal and other feed materials showed crazy market

Introduction: Beijing, July 19, zhongguang.com according to the report of the voice of economy, sun Guangmei, an analyst of Shandong Zhuocang information agricultural products (5.44,0.00,0.00%) visited the transaction to comment on the bulk commodity market At present, whether at home or abroad, the overall trend of bulk commodities is somewhat "cold" At the same time of the overall commodity downturn, the falling resistance of agricultural varieties has attracted more and more attention of investors in the industry Sun Guangmei: in the first half of the year, only soft commodity cotton and sugar tend to be "soft", which are the only falling varieties Other agricultural products and agricultural materials are in the upward channel Among them, feed raw materials, oil and grease and agricultural materials are outstanding Feed raw materials, the first half of the overall trend of various varieties? Sun Guangmei: in terms of feed materials, the main varieties are corn and soybean meal In addition, although the amount of fish meal is small, it has the largest increase All of these three products, without exception, represent "Crazy" market First of all, in terms of fish meal: with the arrival of the peak season of demand for aquatic products, the port's inventory is rather stretched However, domestic fish meal has long been withdrawn from the market competition At present, the remaining stocks of the manufacturers are generally low Most of the manufacturers said that due to the arrival of the fishing season, production will be temporarily stopped in the later period, and the supply of fish meal will not be carried out again until the end of the fishing season on September 1 Over the past six months, the trend of fish meal market, the overall increase rate reached 47% Corn and soybean meal, as the main feedstuffs, have the following two characteristics: first, weather has become the primary factor of speculation Since the beginning of the year, the number of corn mildews in some areas has increased due to weather In addition, the news that domestic production is less than the public data has been amplified, and the fund speculation has intensified Both feed factories and deep-processing factories have a high enthusiasm for taking grain, which jointly drives up the market In half a year, the high-end price has increased by 240 yuan / ton As the main basic food crop, corn spot price is rocketing Compared with the same period of previous years, the price of grain in Northeast China is very close to that in Huanghuai, which directly results in the scarcity of northeast goods in Shandong market The price of grain in the south is much more moderate than that in the production areas It can be seen that the grain suppliers and distributors in the upper reaches of the corn industry chain have significantly pushed up the grain price unilaterally in the past six months Processing enterprises reduce corn inventory level from north to south to reduce the impact of rising grain prices, and the demand of low-end grain sources in the past six months is greater than that of high-end grain sources Soybean meal, from the beginning of this year, the weather speculation has revealed its power The drought weather in South America has a negative impact on the growth of local soybeans, followed by the severe drought in Argentina, which leads to the reduction of production forecast as a catalyst, which promotes the formation of prices Then all the way up the oscillation, June gains more strong The main positive factors supporting the rise of spot price in June are from the upstream market In order to ensure profits, manufacturers are willing to quickly adjust the spot price with futures Therefore, the market in the case of insufficient downstream demand, soybean meal prices or a significant upward trend According to Zhuo Chuang data monitoring, as of June 29, the average price of soybean meal in China was 3493.33 yuan / ton, up 21.8% in half a year Feature 2: from 2008 to 2010, the industry achieved initial results in the de financing of some agricultural products However, from the second half of 2011 to the first half of 2012, the financial attributes of more agricultural products have been strengthened again Most of the 10 agricultural products futures monitored by Zhuo Chuang showed an increase in the first half of the year According to Zhuo Chuang's survey, most of the spot operators in the industry participate in futures at the same time Judging from the increase, the increase of legumes is far greater than that of other varieties Soybean meal is the only one with a significant increase in both the internal and external market, up 17.28% and 28.85% respectively, of which CBOT is much higher than the continuous market It can be seen that the momentum of the continuous increase is temporarily from CBOT; the support of funds for the futures price trend makes the soybean meal futures price reach a high of 3538 yuan / ton at the end of June, reaching a high in February 2011 Manufacturers are supported by this, the spot price also appeared inertial rise.