In recent years, some large oil plants in China have experienced a temporary shortage of soybean resources

Introduction: the driving force of CBOT's rise to 1000 US cents in 2003 is largely driven by Chinese buying power At present, China's annual soybean demand is 22 million tons, and the annual output is about 15 million tons Because the domestic oil crops can not meet the strong demand of the domestic market, the huge supply gap has made the domestic oil pressing enterprises more and more seek for more imported soybeans The rise of CBOT has also greatly stimulated the enthusiasm of domestic procurement, but the strong demand reflects the trend of economic overheating The Chinese government immediately adopted a series of macro-control policies in April, which led to the collapse of Liandou and meidou Excessive imports have greatly impacted the current domestic market, and high-cost soybeans have caused a large number of crushing enterprises to suffer losses, Therefore, the purchase behavior of further imported soybeans in the later period is also more cautious, and American soybeans also lost the strong momentum of strengthening again Compared with the domestic market, the result is just the opposite Due to the strengthened control of inspection and quarantine by the relevant departments of the state and the shrinking demand of domestic oil processing industry, the cautious import of soybeans has greatly improved the supply and demand pattern of the domestic market According to statistics, the number of new soybean arrivals in August is 13.7 million tons Some of the cargo will be unloaded in September, which is much lower than the market expectation In addition, it is estimated that 1.7 million tons of soybeans will be loaded in September in South America, and the actual unloading volume will only be between 1.3-1.5 million tons, which is lower than the same period last year Meanwhile, disputes over import trade also reduce the number of imported soybeans, because of contract disputes If not, some foreign suppliers are ready to boycott the export of soybeans to China, which will lead to a temporary shortage of soybeans in major oil plants along the coast At present, some domestic oil plants, especially the coastal oil plants, will continue to face the situation of shortage of imported soybean supply, so the disputes on import trade also make the soybean market provide a positive boost to soybean prices due to the reduction of soybean supply The difference between near and far, the seasonal factors become the dominant bull market in 2003 will undoubtedly stimulate the enthusiasm of soybean farmers to a large extent, the weather is good, the increase of planting area will not only indicate that the output in 2004 will be greatly improved According to JCI's soybean supply and demand report in August 2004, the domestic soybean output in 2004 / 05 continued to rise to 18.12 million tons from the estimated value of 17.68 million tons last month, an increase of 1.33 million tons, or 7.9%, compared with 16.79 million tons last year Among them, the soybean planting area is 11 million hectares, an increase of 810000 hectares, or 7.4%, compared with the previous year's 10.19 million hectares In this way, it will be difficult to change the pattern of soybean that is about to be adjusted in the medium term The rising market in the late 2004 will also have little hope with the coming of the new soybean market Therefore, from this point of view, the supply pressure of the long-term soybean market will be gradually reflected, but the long-term situation is not clear and the short-term situation will remain strong due to the seasonal factors of strong demand 。 In addition, since August, soybean meal demand has shown significant signs of growth In the early stage, some oil plants have been in a state of shutdown or semi shutdown due to lack of funds and difficulties in operation, resulting in a substantial reduction in the supply of soybean meal and soybean oil; on the other hand, with the arrival of the peak consumption season and the steady rise in the price of downstream products such as eggs, poultry and meat, the soybean meal market will be out again in the short term There is little chance of a unilateral decline At present, the prices of pork, eggs and other livestock and poultry products have increased rapidly Take Liaoning Province as an example, the price of eggs in Liaoning Province in August was 5.59 yuan / kg, 9% higher than that in July, 37.7% higher than that in the same period of last year The price rise of downstream products will further boost the enthusiasm of the feed industry for the purchase of soybean meal, thus forming a certain support for the recent price of soybeans To sum up: under the condition that the global soybean market is expected to have a good harvest, the medium-term trend of soybeans will not be optimistic However, in the short term, due to the possible trade disputes of imported soybeans and the approaching of the traditional Mid Autumn Festival and national day, the soybean market will also face the situation of increasing demand At the same time, as the time of new bean listing is approaching, in view of the previous state's intention to protect bean farmers, the bean market before listing is unlikely to have a large unilateral decline, so it is still difficult to change the pattern of maintaining a strong domestic soybean market before a large number of new beans are listed.