In 2023, there will be 4 major trends in the domestic pharmaceutical industry

Although the fourth quarter has not yet been completed, China's pharmaceutical industry has received some strong policy support since October, and the market performance is worth looking forward to
in the medium and long term.
Looking forward to 2023, the author has sorted out four major development trends in the pharmaceutical industry from the perspective of observers: "cost control" is still the main line of pharmaceutical industry policy, domestic substitution is accelerating under the trend of new medical infrastructure, new drug research and development pays more attention to clinical value, and the traditional Chinese medicine industry continues to expand, for industry reference
only.
In 2023, 4 major trends in the domestic pharmaceutical industry (Image source: Pharmaceutical Network) "Cost control" is still the main line of pharmaceutical industry policy, centralized procurement and price reduction is expected to become moderate "Fee control" is the main line
of pharmaceutical industry policy in recent years.
In November this year, the seventh batch of centralized procurement has ended, so far the country has successfully purchased a total of 294 drugs, an average reduction of more than 50%, affecting the clinical market
of many hospitals.
At present, the eighth batch of centralized procurement is also in full swing, and it is reported that the state has required local governments to report the list
of centralized procurement of chemical drugs and biological drugs (similar drugs).
Looking back at the situation of recent batches, centralized procurement is entering the stage of speeding up and expanding coverage, the time is shortening, the speed is accelerating, the scope of centralized procurement (from 11 pilot cities, to expand to 25 provinces, and then to the whole country), centralized procurement varieties (the first batch of 25, to the seventh batch of 60), the number of winning enterprises, etc.
are expanding
.
The treatment areas of the seventh batch of collected varieties cover common diseases such as hypertension, diabetes, anti-infection, digestive tract diseases, chronic diseases, as well as major diseases such as lung cancer, liver cancer, kidney cancer, and bowel cancer, benefiting the public more extensively
.
According to the start time of the eighth batch of centralized procurement, it is expected that the centralized procurement catalogue will be determined in February 2023, and in principle, it is required to be completed in the first half of 2023 and implemented
from September 2023.
Therefore, centralized procurement is still one of the key tasks of
medical reform next year.
The industry speculates that the eighth batch of centralized procurement and the seventh batch of centralized procurement rules are roughly the same, and the price reduction is expected to be moderate
.
However, the scale and types may exceed expectations, among which chronic disease drugs and common disease drugs are still the key varieties
of centralized procurement.
For pharmaceutical companies, for some products with a small market share, centralized procurement is an opportunity
to "overtake on a curve".
Although some products with a large market share have reduced prices, the market has not achieved significant growth
in minutes.
Therefore, it is expected that in the process of this round of centralized procurement, the quotation of pharmaceutical companies will also become more rational
.
In recent years, with the support of environmental changes, capital increase, and favorable policies, the market scale of the medical device industry has been expanding, and domestic substitution
has accelerated.
In September this year, the State Council decided to provide phased financial discounts for equipment renewal and renovation loans in some fields and increase credit support for social service industries, promote consumption to play a leading role, and explicitly mention support for hospitals in "new loans for equipment purchase and renovation, and the implementation of phased incentive policies
".
After the introduction of a new round of strong policies, the demand for hundreds of billions of medical equipment renovation in the country is about to be released, and the industry expects that from the fourth quarter of this year to 2023, the medical device industry will usher in a peak procurement period
.
Essence Securities believes that since October, the actual implementation speed of the discount loan policy has exceeded the market's previous expectations
.
The country has reported more than 200 billion yuan of medical equipment loan demand, in addition to the issuance of record high medical special bonds and hospital own funds, subsidized interest loans will become another important source of
funds for medical device procurement.
New drug research and development pays more attention to clinical value In recent years, with the normalization of centralized procurement and the promotion of consistency evaluation and other policies, the innovation, transformation and upgrading of domestic pharmaceutical companies have accelerated, but at the same time, the new drug R&D pipeline represented by PD-1 drugs has become more and more "involuted"
.
In order to avoid R&D piling, CDE issued a new policy in July 2021, which severely frustrated the "pseudo-innovation" of innovative drugs and forced the research and development of new drugs to be "centered on patient needs and guided by clinical value"
.
At present, many people believe that the innovative drug industry has entered a capital winter, and opportunities and challenges coexist
.
At the five Hongqiao International Health Technology Innovation Forum held in November, participating pharmaceutical companies generally believed that Chinese enterprises should actively deploy cutting-edge technologies and technologies, link up with the global biomedical innovation frontiers, accelerate the transformation of industry-university-research effectiveness, and pay attention to clinical value
.
Judging from public information, since the beginning of this year, pharmaceutical companies such as Hehuang Pharmaceutical have suspended some of their pipelines under research to reasonably control the expenditure of R&D expenses, focusing on drugs with potential and clinical value in the internal development pipeline
.
Minsheng Securities Research reported that from January to September 2022, the number of innovative biological drug IND applications increased by 24% year-on-year, of which the number of ADC, CAR-T therapy and gene therapy IND applications increased by 38%, 89% and 300% year-on-year, and the innovative drug industry as a whole is developing towards emerging innovative drug types with high technical barriers, showing a high-quality development trend
.
Traditional Chinese medicine industry continues to expand In recent years, the traditional Chinese medicine industry is in a long period of adjustment, with the aging of the population, the continuous upgrading of consumption levels, the improvement of residents' recognition of traditional Chinese medicine, and the encouragement and support of favorable policies, the industry will accelerate its development
.
The state has elevated the development plan of traditional Chinese medicine to the national level
.
In March this year, the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the development of traditional Chinese medicine clarified the goals and main tasks
of the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the development of traditional Chinese medicine.
It is proposed that by 2025, the health service capacity of traditional Chinese medicine will be significantly enhanced, the high-quality development policy and system of traditional Chinese medicine will be further improved, the revitalization and development of traditional Chinese medicine will achieve positive results, and the unique advantages in the construction of a healthy China will be fully utilized
.
In October, the "14th Five-Year Plan: Development Plan for Chinese Medicine Talents" issued by the State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine pointed out that by 2025, the total number of traditional Chinese medicine personnel in medical and health institutions will exceed 1 million, the number of practicing (assistant) physicians in the TCM category per 1,000 population will reach 0.
62, and the number of general practitioners in the TCM category per 10,000 population will reach 0.
79
.
Proprietary Chinese medicine products are accelerating their entry into the national medical insurance catalog
.
According to the "2022 National Basic Medical Insurance, Work-related Injury Insurance and Maternity Insurance Drug Catalogue Adjustment Approved Drugs List of Declared Drugs", there are 15 proprietary Chinese medicines outside the list and 34 proprietary Chinese medicines in the catalog, both of which have increased
significantly compared with the previous year.
At present, the national centralized procurement of proprietary Chinese medicines has not yet officially landed, but there have been many regional alliances to explore centralized procurement, and the overall price decline is relatively moderate
.
In September this year, the Hubei Medical Insurance Bureau issued the "National Procurement Announcement of the Alliance of Proprietary Chinese Medicines", involving 42 oral liquids and injections, with the participation of nearly 30 provinces, municipalities and other alliance regions, and the establishment of a national joint procurement office for proprietary Chinese medicines, which the industry believes means that the national centralized procurement of proprietary Chinese medicines is approaching
.
In addition, from the perspective of development direction, innovation is conducive to improving the vitality of the development of the traditional Chinese medicine industry, and innovative traditional Chinese medicine drugs are the main direction
.
In recent years, the signal of policy support for innovation has also become very clear
.
In this context, the number of new batches of new drugs in traditional Chinese medicine is increasing
.
Among them, in 2021, a total of 12 new Chinese medicine drugs were approved for marketing, far exceeding the total number of batches in the past five years
.
The industry believes that some enterprises that deployed innovative Chinese medicine drugs earlier and have high R&D investment have entered the harvest period, which is worth paying attention to
.
Disclaimer: Under no circumstances does the information or opinions expressed herein constitute investment advice
to anyone.