In 2023, 6 major forecasts for China's biopharmaceutical industry

【Pharmaceutical Network Market Analysis】At the end of each year, pharmaceutical people begin to pay close attention and speculate about what
may happen in the next year.
Looking back on 2022, the author has previously made articles such as "Annual Inventory: Major Policies of the Pharmaceutical Industry in 2022" and "Inventory of the Pharmaceutical Industry in 2022: Four Major Words", on this basis, further predict 6 major events
that may occur in China's biopharmaceutical industry in 2023.
In 2023, 6 major predictions of China's biopharmaceutical industry (Image source: Pharmaceutical Network) Prediction event 1: The eighth batch of national procurement or accelerate the transformation of the biosimilar market At present, the specific time of the eighth batch of centralized procurement has not been announced, and it has not been promoted
according to the original time due to the impact of the epidemic.
From the speculation in the industry, the eighth batch of national procurement will still be dominated by chemical drugs, and at the same time, biosimilars may also become the object of this round of
centralized procurement.
In October this year, the National Health Insurance Administration responded
to the proposal to introduce an access evaluation mechanism for new innovative drugs.
The reply letter clearly stated that the rules for the centralized procurement of biological drugs will be continuously improved in combination with the characteristics of biological drugs, and the rules for centralized procurement of insulin will be carefully formulated taking into account the characteristics of biological drugs
.
China's biosimilar market is huge, Frost & Sullivan data shows that by 2030, China's biosimilar market will reach 58.
9 billion yuan
.
The industry believes that with the promotion of centralized procurement of biological drugs, the market pattern of tens of billions of biosimilars will change
.
Prediction event 2: The recovery of the innovative drug industry will usher in a blockbuster product launch wave in 2023 After precise epidemic prevention, the industry believes that the gradual recovery of in-hospital diagnosis and treatment will accelerate the recovery
of innovative drugs from clinical enrollment to commercial cashing.
In 2023, it is expected that China will usher in a wave
of blockbuster innovative drugs.
For example, JAB-21822, a KRASG12C inhibitor developed by Jacobio, has been approved for pivotal phase II clinical trials in China and is expected to be submitted for marketing in 2023, and the product is intended for the treatment of locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) carrying KRASp.
G12C mutations that have received at least one prior systemic therapy (at most third-line therapy); Betta Pharma's third-generation EGFR-TKI befacitinib mesylate marketing application has been accepted, which is expected to provide new and effective treatment options
for patients with EGFR-sensitive mutation advanced NSCLC-naïve treatment.
Guojin Securities expects the drug to be approved for marketing in 2023; For another example, the marketing application of Zewoki Orencel (CT053) for the treatment of relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma by Keji Pharmaceutical has been accepted by the State Food and Drug Administration and is expected to be launched
in 2023.
Predicted event 3: DRG/DIP reform is promoted to the whole country, affecting the market pattern of medical institutions The Notice on the Use and Connection of DRG/DIP Functional Modules of the Payment Method Management Subsystem issued by the National Health Insurance Administration clarifies that DRG/DIP functional modules will be applied
nationwide by the end of November 2022.
It is reported that the promotion and application of DRG/DIP functional modules is to prepare for the DRG/DIP payment reform, and at the same time, it will promote the refined management of hospitals and rationally use medical insurance funds
.
The industry believes that with the reform of DRG/DIP payment method to the whole country, it is expected to affect the market pattern of medical institutions in the country, forcing hospitals to accelerate the development model from extensive and scale expansion to pay more attention to internal cost control
.
Prediction Event 4: Under favorable policies, the development of traditional Chinese medicine industry accelerates With the transformation of residents' health awareness to preventive treatment, the advantages of integrated prevention and treatment of traditional Chinese medicine are highlighted
.
Under the background of aging and rapid growth of chronic diseases, the entire traditional Chinese medicine industry has accelerated its development
towards high quality.
Since 2020, China has issued a series of policies to support the development of the Chinese medicine industry, including the Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Inheritance and Innovation of Traditional Chinese Medicine, the Guiding Opinions on Medical Insurance to Support the Inheritance and Innovation of Traditional Chinese Medicine, the High-quality Integration of Traditional Chinese Medicine into the Belt and Road Development Plan (2021-2025), the 14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Traditional Chinese Medicine, and the 14th Five-Year Plan for the Informatization Development of Traditional Chinese Medicine.
It also points out the direction
for the development of the traditional Chinese medicine industry.
In 2023, with the promotion and landing of the above favorable policies, the traditional Chinese medicine industry will usher in a new stage of comprehensive development, accelerate industrial development, and open a new beginning
of international development.
Prediction Event 5: Prescription outflow accelerates, and pharmacy terminal concentration further increases In recent years, with the normalization of centralized procurement and the promotion of medical insurance fee control policies, the profit margin of drugs in hospitals has become smaller and smaller, coupled with the impact of the epidemic, prescriptions have accelerated outflow, attracting pharmaceutical companies to actively deploy hundreds of billions of out-of-hospital markets
.
In this context, pharmacies that work closely with hospitals and pharmaceutical companies have become a major beneficiary.

The "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the High-quality Development of the Pharmaceutical Circulation Industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan" period proposes that by 2025, 5 to 10 specialized pharmacies of more than 50 billion yuan will be cultivated, and the annual sales of the top 100 pharmaceutical retail enterprises will account for more than 65% of the total pharmaceutical retail market; The retail chain rate of pharmaceuticals is close to 70%.

With the increase of capital and the rapid integration of pharmacy terminals, the concentration of the pharmacy industry will continue to increase, and the industry expects listed chain enterprises to obtain more opportunities
.
At present, domestic chain head pharmacies are accelerating into the era of 10,000 stores, of which ordinary people and Yifeng pharmacy have successively passed the scale of 10,000 stores, and other listed pharmacy head enterprises such as Da Shenlin, Yixintang, Shuyu Civilian and Jianzhijia are also speeding up the horse
race.
Prediction Event 6: Under the wave of new medical infrastructure, the demand for equipment procurement will surge New medical infrastructure has become a hot topic in recent years and has attracted much attention
from the industry.
In September this year, the Health Commission issued a notice proposing to use financial discount loans to upgrade and transform medical equipment; In November, the central government issued a budget of 26.
521 billion yuan for central infrastructure investment in the field of health in 2022, further releasing the demand for
hospital medical equipment procurement.
It is reported that the current declaration progress of the subsidized interest loan in October has exceeded market expectations
.
Some institutions predict in the research report that from the second half of 2022 to 2023, China's medical market will enter the peak period of medical equipment procurement, especially the procurement demand of the county medical market will continue to surge, and it is expected that nearly 200 billion yuan of incremental funds will enter the medical equipment procurement market
.
Disclaimer: Under no circumstances does the information or opinions expressed herein constitute investment advice
to anyone.