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How will pharmaceutical stocks fare in 2022? At present, considering factors such as valuation digestion and policy support, the industry generally holds an optimistic view
.
As for the opportunities for subdivided tracks, some securities companies believe that there are 6 major tracks with high prosperity in 2022, including CDMO, upstream life sciences, innovative drugs, brand consumption, rehabilitation, and chain pharmacies
.
Among them, CDMO is still expected to maintain a high industry prosperity under the background of the continuous improvement of the domestic innovative drug market, and the trend of capacity expansion is sustainable
.
On the one hand, the global innovative drug projects in the clinical stage are accelerating, the demand for CDMO will continue to grow, and overseas orders will continue to be transferred to China, bringing huge market opportunities to domestic enterprises; on the other hand, with the API + preparations With the advancement of CDMO's integrated layout, the revenue generated by a single project is also expected to increase
.
In addition, in terms of competition in the domestic market, domestic CDMO companies also have greater advantages than overseas CDMO leaders
.
Guotai Junan reminded that the global pharmaceutical CDMO industry market size is expected to reach 51.
8 billion US dollars by 2023, and the domestic market size will reach 8.
5 billion US dollars
.
The downstream industry of life sciences is currently in a stage of rapid development.
It is estimated that by 2024, the Chinese biopharmaceutical market will grow by 712.
4 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 18.
0%
.
In this context, upstream industries such as biological reagents are also expected to usher in greater development opportunities, the demand will continue to expand, and the industry expects that domestic substitution will usher in a window period, and the track prosperity will continue to rise
.
The data predicts that the market size of China's biological scientific research reagents has reached 18.
2 billion yuan in 2021, and it is expected that the market size is expected to reach 26 billion yuan in 2024, showing a sustained high prosperity
.
Innovative drugs benefit from multiple resonances such as favorable policies, talents, capital, and increased investment in research and development, and the industry's prosperity is relatively certain
.
It is expected in the industry that in 2022, with the acceleration of domestic innovative drugs to go overseas, the industry will also accelerate its rise.
Among them, giant companies with rich product pipelines and strong R&D strength may have greater development opportunities
.
In addition, around the innovative drug industry chain, APIs and intermediates, CXO and domestic innovative drugs are worthy of attention
.
Brand consumption track, such as brand Chinese medicine
.
As the country vigorously develops the cause of traditional Chinese medicine, and favorable policies are continuously released, the State Food and Drug Administration has approved a total of 12 new traditional Chinese medicine drugs for the market in 2021, and the number of approvals has reached a new high
.
The industry believes that the national policy level promotes the strengthening of traditional Chinese medicine medical capacity building, strengthens personnel training, and promotes a reasonable understanding of traditional Chinese medicine in the society, which is conducive to the development of the traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods industry
.
It is expected that Chinese medicine consumer goods companies will have different degrees of value revaluation opportunities.
It is recommended to focus on: brand barriers, pricing power, brand extension capabilities and possible breakthroughs in incentive mechanisms
.
The rehabilitation track also has a high degree of prosperity.
On the one hand, it is due to the expansion of demand brought about by aging and consumption upgrades; on the other hand, policies are also conducive to industrial development
.
On January 5, the notice on printing and distributing the National Action Plan for Disability Prevention (2021-2025) was released.
The document now further strengthens disability prevention, expands the demand for early newborn screening services, and further emphasizes the strengthening of rehabilitation medical services.
The formation of medical services and rehabilitation tracks is favorable
.
Relevant diagnostic companies and rehabilitation medical device sectors are expected to benefit
.
In addition, it is expected to actively promote the capacity building of rehabilitation medical sub-specialties such as neurological rehabilitation, children's rehabilitation, and geriatric rehabilitation.
Private hospitals are expected to form differentiated competition by developing characteristic rehabilitation disciplines
.
In addition, in the chain pharmacy sector, with the weakening of multiple factors such as high base effect and new leasing standards, the prosperity of 2022 is also optimistic in the industry
.
Guotai Junan pointed out in the research report that in 2020 and 2021, a large number of new stores will be affected by the epidemic prevention policy.
boost
.
.
As for the opportunities for subdivided tracks, some securities companies believe that there are 6 major tracks with high prosperity in 2022, including CDMO, upstream life sciences, innovative drugs, brand consumption, rehabilitation, and chain pharmacies
.
Among them, CDMO is still expected to maintain a high industry prosperity under the background of the continuous improvement of the domestic innovative drug market, and the trend of capacity expansion is sustainable
.
On the one hand, the global innovative drug projects in the clinical stage are accelerating, the demand for CDMO will continue to grow, and overseas orders will continue to be transferred to China, bringing huge market opportunities to domestic enterprises; on the other hand, with the API + preparations With the advancement of CDMO's integrated layout, the revenue generated by a single project is also expected to increase
.
In addition, in terms of competition in the domestic market, domestic CDMO companies also have greater advantages than overseas CDMO leaders
.
Guotai Junan reminded that the global pharmaceutical CDMO industry market size is expected to reach 51.
8 billion US dollars by 2023, and the domestic market size will reach 8.
5 billion US dollars
.
The downstream industry of life sciences is currently in a stage of rapid development.
It is estimated that by 2024, the Chinese biopharmaceutical market will grow by 712.
4 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 18.
0%
.
In this context, upstream industries such as biological reagents are also expected to usher in greater development opportunities, the demand will continue to expand, and the industry expects that domestic substitution will usher in a window period, and the track prosperity will continue to rise
.
The data predicts that the market size of China's biological scientific research reagents has reached 18.
2 billion yuan in 2021, and it is expected that the market size is expected to reach 26 billion yuan in 2024, showing a sustained high prosperity
.
Innovative drugs benefit from multiple resonances such as favorable policies, talents, capital, and increased investment in research and development, and the industry's prosperity is relatively certain
.
It is expected in the industry that in 2022, with the acceleration of domestic innovative drugs to go overseas, the industry will also accelerate its rise.
Among them, giant companies with rich product pipelines and strong R&D strength may have greater development opportunities
.
In addition, around the innovative drug industry chain, APIs and intermediates, CXO and domestic innovative drugs are worthy of attention
.
Brand consumption track, such as brand Chinese medicine
.
As the country vigorously develops the cause of traditional Chinese medicine, and favorable policies are continuously released, the State Food and Drug Administration has approved a total of 12 new traditional Chinese medicine drugs for the market in 2021, and the number of approvals has reached a new high
.
The industry believes that the national policy level promotes the strengthening of traditional Chinese medicine medical capacity building, strengthens personnel training, and promotes a reasonable understanding of traditional Chinese medicine in the society, which is conducive to the development of the traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods industry
.
It is expected that Chinese medicine consumer goods companies will have different degrees of value revaluation opportunities.
It is recommended to focus on: brand barriers, pricing power, brand extension capabilities and possible breakthroughs in incentive mechanisms
.
The rehabilitation track also has a high degree of prosperity.
On the one hand, it is due to the expansion of demand brought about by aging and consumption upgrades; on the other hand, policies are also conducive to industrial development
.
On January 5, the notice on printing and distributing the National Action Plan for Disability Prevention (2021-2025) was released.
The document now further strengthens disability prevention, expands the demand for early newborn screening services, and further emphasizes the strengthening of rehabilitation medical services.
The formation of medical services and rehabilitation tracks is favorable
.
Relevant diagnostic companies and rehabilitation medical device sectors are expected to benefit
.
In addition, it is expected to actively promote the capacity building of rehabilitation medical sub-specialties such as neurological rehabilitation, children's rehabilitation, and geriatric rehabilitation.
Private hospitals are expected to form differentiated competition by developing characteristic rehabilitation disciplines
.
In addition, in the chain pharmacy sector, with the weakening of multiple factors such as high base effect and new leasing standards, the prosperity of 2022 is also optimistic in the industry
.
Guotai Junan pointed out in the research report that in 2020 and 2021, a large number of new stores will be affected by the epidemic prevention policy.
boost
.
