In 2018, Chinese patent medicine may remain weak

[market analysis of chinapharma.com] there is no exact clinical evidence The sales of traditional Chinese medicine products mainly depends on the promotion ability rather than the efficacy of the products, resulting in a low return on research and development, and the contribution of research and development of research and development enterprises such as Kangyuan to profits is relatively low Combined with the cautious attitude of supervision, most enterprises choose to wait for the approval of new regulations such as classic famous companies According to the data of Huatai Securities, the growth rate of Chinese patent medicine industry has been below 10% for two consecutive years since 2015 Under the pressure of sharp decline in new drugs, medical insurance control fees, sales compliance, etc., Chinese patent medicine will remain weak in 2018 (Table 1: Policy Analysis of traditional Chinese medicine industry and pharmaceutical industry) (Table 2: analysis of proprietary Chinese medicine industry) high pressure dilemma 1 Strict approval of new drugs and high R & D risk Enterprise level: low return on R & D, waiting for approval of new regulations Due to the lack of exact clinical evidence, the sales of traditional Chinese medicine products mainly depends on the promotion ability rather than the product efficacy, resulting in low R & D return rate, and the contribution of R & D of research and development enterprises such as Kangyuan to profits is relatively low; combined with the cautious attitude of supervision, most enterprises choose to wait for the approval of new regulations such as classic famous parties (Table 3: the R & D return rate of traditional Chinese medicine enterprises is lower than that of chemical medicine enterprises) (Table 4: the number of new Chinese medicine registration and approval) (Table 5: the number of new Chinese medicine registration and approval) regulatory level: suppress modern dosage forms and return to traditional usage The last round of modernization of traditional Chinese medicine has given birth to many large injection varieties, but its high sales rebate and questionable safety have become the target of national pressure in recent years The top-level approval attitude has returned to prudence and encouraged traditional usage, including the retention of decoction pieces plus, classic prescriptions, etc (Table 6: therapeutic drugs squeeze auxiliary drugs) (Table 7: Traditional Chinese medicine injection: pressure increases, share declines) 2 Medical insurance revenue and expenditure maintain tension: stable operation, internal differentiation There are various ways to control the medical insurance fee, with simple purpose The ways include suppressing non clinical urgently needed varieties (such as auxiliary drug monitoring) and selling drugs with high kickback and gold (such as limiting traditional Chinese medicine injection) The purpose is to promote the rationalization of drug structure (to ensure the accessibility of excellent new drugs, and then maintain the interests of innovation and research and development) (Table 8: income and expenditure of China's medical insurance fund) (Table 9: growth rate of medical insurance fund expenditure and growth rate of drug sales) it is expected that this trend will continue, long-term differentiation of drugs will continue, therapeutic products, especially innovative drugs, will be supported by policies, while auxiliary products will be suppressed As a typical partial auxiliary drug, traditional Chinese medicine has long-term pressure on medical insurance fee control The new dawn 1, the supply side break: the classic side is expected to reshape the pattern Classic names come from the top and are executed orderly It is expected that the implementation will be stronger than expected, and may overturn the pattern of Chinese patent medicine The screening principle of classic famous prescriptions is "originated from ancient times, used to this day, with definite curative effect and characteristics" The first batch of directories includes 100 prescriptions, and it is expected that the first batch of directories will be published in 2018 (table 10: policy review, classic prescriptions) three points about classic prescriptions predict that the market potential of diseases is great: we infer that 20-30 varieties of the first 100 prescriptions have great market potential, and they are mainly used for chronic diseases, covering tumor adjuvant treatment, gastrointestinal diseases and other fields; There are few actual sales enterprises: most of the traditional Chinese medicine enterprises have historical debts in terms of quality standards, and the classical famous prescriptions probably set the quality standards high enough, so that there are enough enterprises to enter; Supporting measures are gradually implemented: it is not necessary to worry too much about supporting policies such as medical insurance and bidding The classic famous prescriptions are top-down and in line with the guiding ideas of the State Administration of pharmaceutical supervision on Chinese patent medicines The supporting policies may exceed expectations like consistency evaluation 2 Failure of payment end: consumption turns to individual payment According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2016, the Engel coefficient of urban households in China was less than 30%, which has entered the stage of affluence (standard of the United Nations Organization) The penetration into the field of Medicine can be reflected in: 1) the rapid increase of innovative drugs that have not entered the medical insurance; 2) the continuous growth of sales of traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods; 3) the increase of private chain visits (Table 11: household consumption upgrading) (Table 12: profit and profit margin of Chinese patent medicine industry) (table 13: income and growth rate of Chinese patent medicine industry) original title: 2018, Chinese patent medicine is suffering! Author: looking forward