In 2005, China's total rape production is expected to decrease by 8.5% year on year

Introduction: According to the comprehensive analysis of the agrometeorological conditions, socio-economic factors and the calculation results of the national meteorological forecast model of rape production since the sowing of rape in the main production areas of China, the agricultural and ecological Meteorological Office of the National Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration predicted that the total rape production in 2005 would be reduced by 8.5% year on year, and increased by 4.2% compared with the average total rape production in the past five years     According to the forecast of the agricultural and ecological meteorological office, the average yield of rape in 2005 was 1630.0 kg / ha, which was 10.1% (182.8 kg / HA) lower than that in 2004 (1812.8 kg / HA), and 2.0% (32.6 kg / HA) higher than that in recent five years (1597.4 kg / HA) According to the preliminary statistical analysis, the rape planting area in 2005 was 7.4 million hectares, 1.8% (128600 hectares) more than that in 2004 (7271400 hectares), and the total rape production in 2005 is expected to be 12.062 million tons, 8.5% (1.12 million tons) less than that in 2004 (13.182 million tons) It is 4.2% (489000 tons) higher than the average total output (11.573 million tons) in the past five years The main forecast basis is as follows: first, the agrometeorological conditions since the rape sowing At present, rape is still in the stage of milk filling and ripening in some areas of the Yangtze River and Huaihe River, and most of the rape in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and southwest China are in the stage of ripening and harvesting Since the sowing of rape, most of the production areas have sufficient light and heat in autumn, early winter and after spring, which is conducive to the growth and development of rape and yield formation; however, disasters such as low temperature, low rain and light, freezing damage, snow damage and so on have a greater impact on the growth and development of rape The main favorable meteorological conditions are as follows: (1) most of the rape producing areas have sufficient light and heat from autumn to early winter The obvious precipitation in November 2004 effectively alleviated the sustained drought in the early stage, and the rape grows well before winter (2) The temperature of most rape producing areas rises rapidly after spring, especially since the late March, the light and heat conditions are better, which is conducive to the formation of rape yield and harvest (3) During the flowering period, the weather in most areas is sunny, which is good for the prevention and control of diseases and insect pests The occurrence degree of rape sclerotinia and other diseases and insect pests is light, and the quality of rapeseed is better than that of all the year round The main disadvantageous meteorological conditions are as follows: (1) most of the rape producing areas in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River have significantly less precipitation in autumn than in the same period of the whole year, resulting in different degrees of drought, which delay the sowing time of rape, uneven emergence of SEEDED RAPE and poor seedling quality (2) In the early winter, the temperature was obviously high, and part of rape in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River appeared vigorous growth In the late December, the strong cooling weather made some rape suffered severe freeze damage (3) In most of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and parts of Southwest China, there are continuous low temperature and rainy days in winter, which results in the over wet farmland soil, the slow growth and development of rape, and the growth deviation (4) Most of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and parts of the southwest suffered from severe freeze and snow damage in the early spring; part of the mid spring production areas were affected by severe convective weather such as hail and strong wind, which was not conducive to the growth and development of rape and yield formation In addition, heavy rain and rainstorm occurred in the first and middle of may in some areas of Jiangnan, which had a certain impact on rape maturity and timely harvest Second, the analysis of social and economic factors In recent years, due to the large oil shortage in the domestic market and the rising price of rapeseed, farmers have a good profit and high enthusiasm in planting rape According to the preliminary statistical analysis, the rape planting area increased year on year in 2005 Third, the calculation results of the national rape yield meteorological prediction model show that the average yield per unit area of rape in 2005 is 1650 kg / ha According to the forecast of the central meteorological station, the main rainfall areas in the next 10 days will be located in the areas of Jianghuai, Jiangnan and the north of South China