IMS: by 2018, China's per capita drug expenditure will increase by 70%, still only 9% of that of the United States

Source: e-medicine Facebook 2014-11-21 IMS predicts that global prescription drug sales will reach US $1.3 trillion by 2018 This is higher than the GDP of Mexico, the world's 15th largest economy, of US $1.2 trillion in 2014 China has become the global spending and growth representative of emerging market growth In 2009-2018 ★ 2014, the pharmaceutical market in developed countries will continue to maintain a significant growth momentum The two biggest contributors are the United States and Japan, and the five EU countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom) will maintain relatively low growth ★ emerging markets are mainly driven by the Chinese market which accounts for 46% Like developed countries, emerging markets will maintain moderate growth in the future, especially in the later years Global drug purchase spending will increase the growth of pharmaceutical spending per capita ★ in the U.S market, which is mainly due to the population growth rate, the decline in the number of drugs with patent expiry compared with the previous period, and the development and rising price of innovative drugs ★ only France and Spain can see a decrease in per capita drug expenditure in 2018, mainly due to policy control ★ China's per capita drug expenditure will show the highest growth rate, which is expected to exceed 70% in the next five years Even so, China's per capita drug spending is only 9% of that of the United States ★ in 2004, the growth rate of global drug expenditure reached a peak of 7.7%, which remained stable thereafter By 2014, the growth rate of global drug expenditure had peaked again ★ by 2018, the U.S market will continue to lead the growth of the global drug market, with a growth rate of 11-13% in 2014 and a compound growth rate of 5-8% in 2018 The field of special treatment will continue to maintain its growth advantages No matter in emerging or mature markets, hepatitis C drugs have entered the top 20 disease fields with the most growth strength ★ for example, in developed countries or developing countries, cancer drugs still account for the largest proportion of specialty areas ★ the leading treatment fields in emerging markets are pain, anti-inflammatory drugs and hypertension; the leading treatment fields in mature markets are tumor, autoimmune and M & A ★ of the 20 treatment areas, 6 leading products will face the patent cliff in the next 5 years: this means that the sales volume will drop sharply The market of new targeted drugs and orphan drugs will continue to expand global launch of new molecular entities (NMES) ★ by October 2014, 31 new chemical entities have been approved globally, 26 of which have been launched Of these new chemical entities, 6 are listed as rare disease drugs by the United States or the European Union, and 18 products belong to the field of specialized treatment ★ in 2014, a total of 12 products in the United States obtained FDA breakthrough therapy certification, including the first biological group B vaccine North America still accounts for the largest proportion of global sales geographic distribution of medicine spending ★ economic recovery and previous medical reform have had a positive impact on the US pharmaceutical market Europe, on the other hand, is constrained by the economic crisis, slow population growth and a sustained reduction in public spending (including health insurance and drug spending), so there will be no significant growth in the pharmaceutical market With the economic recovery, South Korea and India will bring market expansion, while the growth of Northeast Asia and East Asia will be twice the average of the global market, mainly due to the growth of population, the increase of income, and the government's investment in health care Russia, Ukraine, Thailand and Xiangkang will maintain limited growth because of the impact of the economic crisis and the government's increased control over health spending There will be no significant growth in the Middle East and South Africa The growth rate of net profit in the pharmaceutical industry has declined by 25% global market growth modulated by batches 2009-2013 and 2014-2018 ★ no matter in developed countries or new markets, the control of drug expenditure by policies has been strengthened, and enterprises need to find new ways to reduce the drug expenditure of patients, among which, discounts other than invoices and commodity discounts are the most common forms ★ IMS forecasts that the negative impact of the above forms on sales in 2018 will be about 0.5% However, in the face of fierce competition from generic pharmaceutical enterprises, more and more brand pharmaceutical enterprises will take price concession measures such as discount beyond invoice and commodity discount in the future.