Igo: how long can soybean oil market support

Introduction: In the near future, the spot market price of soybean oil in China continues to remain strong In most parts of the country, the oil factories are under construction, the market oil source is in short supply, and the temperature continues to drop, all of which bring favorable support to the soybean oil market Therefore, the price of soybean oil continues to remain strong However, with the successive arrival of imported soybean and soybean oil in Hong Kong in the later period, the market pressure of soybean oil can not be ignored The specific analysis of Igo is as follows: At present, the price of grade I soybean oil in the market unit: yuan / ton port; grade I soybean oil in Zhangjiagang port, Rizhao Lianyungang port, Tianjin port; 6100 6050 6050 6100-6150 5980-6000 up and down - - + 50 - the price of grade IV soybean oil in the market unit: yuan / ton Port: Tianjin Rizhao Lianyungang Zhangjiagang Guangzhou port grade IV soybean oil 5780 5750-5800 5900 5800 5700-5750 up and down - + 50 - import soybean keeps coming According to Igo, up to now, China has shipped 2699500 tons of U.S soybeans According to the statistics of export sales report, the cumulative shipping volume has reached 2749700 tons Some of these soybeans are expected to arrive at China's ports in October We expect 1.9-2 million tons to arrive at China in November As there are about 400000 tons of South American soybeans in China in November Therefore, it is expected that the total amount of imported soybeans in November will reach 2.3-2.4 million tons According to our website, in terms of the current estimated processing capacity of 26.5 million tons of oil soybeans in 2004 / 05 and the average consumption of 2-2.2 million tons of oil soybeans per month, from November 2004 to March 2005, the total supply of imported soybeans and northeast soybeans in China can meet the demand of the crushing industry for soybeans during this period The overall needs of Therefore, in the later stage, the shortage of soybean resources in domestic oil plants will be relieved, and the risk of soybean oil weakening depends on each other Domestic new beans are on the market In recent years, the domestic soybean market is basically stable, and the soybean purchase price in Northeast China has begun to pick up Due to the serious psychology of soybean farmers in the early stage, and the oil factory is trying to reduce the purchase price After a period of stalemate between the two sides, the progress of soybean purchase by the oil factory is slow, and the current inventory is not much Compared with the imported soybean, the domestic soybean is still squeezed with a profit of 200-300 yuan / ton The crushing profit of imported soybeans is only 100 yuan / ton Therefore, some large-scale oil plants have begun to make concessions and take the initiative to raise the price to purchase northeast soybeans Due to the large amount of purchases, other oil companies have to follow up the purchase It can be seen that a large number of domestic new soybeans are on the market, which will put pressure on the soybean oil market The soybean meal market tends to fall, and the oil price can support the recent obvious decline in the domestic soybean meal market price, which leads to the corresponding aggravation of the price raising psychology of the oil factories around the country, and supports the high soybean oil price During the period from the end of October to the beginning of November, due to the obvious reduction of livestock and poultry stock in most areas of China, feed enterprises are still worried about the future market of soybean meal In addition, a large number of oil plants around the early stage started construction, resulting in a significant slowdown in the overall inventory consumption of soybean meal market, and the sales price of soybean meal by oil plants and traders continued to decline At present, the domestic soybean meal market price is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, down 100-200 yuan / ton from 2500 yuan / ton in the same period last week Therefore, with the continuous decline of the overall price of domestic soybean meal market in the near future and the relatively stable purchase price of domestic soybean, in order to maintain the "normal" level of soybean crushing profit, some oil factories in some regions may make soybean oil price more volatile     In conclusion, Igo believes that the main boost to the soybean oil market at present is the shortage of soybean sources and insufficient start-up, which leads to the shortage of soybean oil supply in the market, while the price of soybean meal continues to be lowered to provide favorable support for the price of soybean oil Therefore, the price of soybean oil will remain firm in the short term, but in the medium and long term, with the continuous listing of imported soybeans and domestic new soybeans, the price of soybean in the oil factory will continue to be strong At that time, the pressure of soybean oil market will remain, and the risk of price falling again will remain