If you choose to "lie flat", the analysis of direct and indirect excess deaths in China under the impact of the new crown infection tsunami

Taking Taiwan as a window to observe the impact of the new crown abandonment control and abandonment, after giving up the dynamic clearance, the new crown infection cases first soared in society according to the exponential growth mode, reaching a peak two months later, and the number of infected people will quickly drop to about half of the peak after a month of high level, and the impact
of the first wave of new crown infection tsunami after the release of control is completed after two months.
There is a process of death after new crown infection, and the peak of death occurs in the third month after abandoning control, and it quickly declines
in the later stage.
After the fifth month, infections and deaths dropped to the trough
.
Then it entered the new normal of
new crown infection and death.

It is predicted that about 546,000 people will die directly and 630,000
indirectly under the impact of the first wave of infection tsunami.
The cumulative excess death rate is 1.
176 million
.
This corresponds to roughly 1 death per 1,200 people
.
Then it became normal, with about
2,300 deaths per day.

Source of this article: Niuhua Finance, reprinted with permission

From the identification of the first case of the new crown in December 2019, the new crown epidemic has been going on for three years
.
In three years, the first students entering the university are about to graduate, almost with a generation
.
Although humans have developed a vaccine, there will be no end
to the epidemic for a while.
Through continuous iterative evolution, the virus has developed to the fifth generation of Omicron
.
It is known to have a low fatality rate, but is highly contagious
.
As of October 10, the cumulative number of confirmed infections worldwide has exceeded 620 million, and the number of cases and deaths has exceeded 6.
55 million.

At present, most countries or regions in the world have abandoned control and have adopted a fatalistic response strategy
.
Only we, out of awe and cherishment of every life, have so far adhered to a dynamic zero policy
of strict control.
Needless to say, the virus continues to come in
from outside due to the inability to cut ties with the rest of the world.
As a result, the new crown epidemic continues to repeat, and many places implement static management, which brings various inconveniences and troubles
to people's work and life.
While increasing the huge cost of epidemic prevention, it also brings risks
to economic growth.

Many people on the Internet asked, can we abandon the control and dynamic zero of the new crown like other countries or regions? Many scholars are also studying and thinking about this issue
.
I believe that our government decision-making bodies are also making decisions
in constant comparison and weighing.

Abandoning control is simple, but it has to suffer a
sudden spike in infections and deaths.
Can we not, or are we willing to endure these consequences?

The new crown epidemic has been a few years ago, the world has carried out different practices of fighting the epidemic and "lying flat", and has accumulated a large number of valuable observation data at the cost of life, in fact, to a certain extent, it can already be analyzed and evaluated more
scientifically and reliably.

This article selects the real statistics of Taiwan, China for analysis and prediction
.
Only data, ideas, analysis and forecasts are
provided here.
In fact, understanding and understanding, whether it is insisting on control or lying flat, it is a very difficult choice and decision
.
What is good, everyone can judge
for themselves based on the results of analysis and prediction.

The Taiwan region is the best window for us to study the consequences of lying flat, and there are several reasons
.
Since the outbreak of the epidemic, Taiwan has been adopting the same dynamic zero policy as the mainland, and is cautious.

This situation lasted until April 8, 2022, when, for various reasons, it was announced that it would abandon resistance and choose to resign itself to its fate
.
The time when they gave up control coincided with the Omicron epidemic stage, and before they gave up control, they were also infected and died very little because of strict defense, plus Taiwan and the mainland are of the same species, genes, personality, culture and eating habits are extremely similar
.
Therefore, it can be used as a very good sample to study and speculate on the consequences
that will occur if we also choose to lie flat.
In addition, Taiwan will quickly publish the number of deaths and crude mortality rates of the month at the end of each month, which brings great convenience
to timely data analysis.
The data analyzed in this article is derived from the website of the health and administrative authorities in
Taiwan.

Since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, Taiwan has long implemented the same strict control dynamic zero policy
as us.
The number of infections and deaths remained low
.
On April 8, 2022, Taiwan announced that it had abandoned the dynamic zero policy that had been adhered to for more than two years, and at this time, a total of 26,263 people were confirmed infected and 853 died
.
The total population of Taiwan by the end of 2021 is 23.
375 million, which roughly corresponds to 11.
2 infections per 10,000 people and 0.
36 deaths
.
The total population of Chinese mainland was 1.
413 billion at the end of 2021, and as of October 7, there were 252638 confirmed cases and 5,226 deaths of the new crown
.
This corresponds to 1.
79 infections per 10,000 people and 0.
037 deaths
.

The monthly changes in new coronavirus infections and deaths in Taiwan from April to the end of September after it announced that it would abandon epidemic control are shown
in the figure below.

It can be seen that after abandoning the dynamic zero epidemic control, the number of infected cases in society has skyrocketed according to the exponential growth pattern, reaching a peak after two months, and the number of infected people will quickly drop to about half of the peak after a month of high level, and the first wave of infection tsunami impact
after the release of control is completed after two months.
There is a process of post-infection mortality, with a peak of death occurring in the third month after abandoning control and rapidly falling
back in the later period.
After the fifth month, infections and deaths dropped to the trough
.
Then it entered the new normal of
infection and death.

There is nothing new under the sun, assuming that if we abandon epidemic control, we will follow a similar evolution law
in Taiwan.
Then the first wave of epidemic tsunami shock after the release will last about 5 months, the new crown will cause 724 deaths in the first month, 83,817 deaths in the second month, 265079 deaths in the third month, 137243 deaths in the fourth month, and 59,516 people
in the fifth month.
About
546,000 people died directly from the impact of the tsunami.
Then it became normal, with about
2,300 deaths per day.

This is the direct death toll
predicted to result from the coronavirus shock.
For a large number of deaths, many people say that many people will die under normal circumstances without epidemics, or that most of the people who die have underlying diseases or are elderly
.
It is necessary to pay attention to the number of deaths caused by the new crown than normal, or the excess mortality rate is meaningful, in order to correctly evaluate the impact of
the new crown on human deaths.

This statement makes perfect sense, so here's
the point.
Let's look at the chronological chart
of the number of deaths in Taiwan from January to September 2016-2022.

Deaths in Taiwan from January to September 2016-2022

Let's look at the monthly crude mortality rate time change chart
in Taiwan from January to September 2016-2022.
The crude mortality rate refers to the average number of deaths
per 1,000 people in the total population in a month.
Note the proportion
of deaths in the total population, not among the infected population.

Crude mortality rate in Taiwan from January to September 2016-2022

In 2020, the number of infections and deaths in society as a whole was very small, and it had little impact on the overall crude mortality rate and deaths
.
The crude death rate line for 2021 has been raised, but not very significant
.
Excluding the data of 2021, in 2016-2020 without the obvious impact of the new crown, the number of deaths and crude mortality rates in the same month of each year are fluctuating, but the change is relatively small, and the lines drawn in different years are intertwined, and there is no upward or downward trend difference
.
In fact, the curve of the months leading up to the abandonment of control in April 2022 is also intertwined with previous years, and the
difference is small.

But two months later, both the number of deaths and the crude death rate were significantly higher than the previous year's corresponding
month.
It clearly shows that the number of deaths and mortality has increased
rapidly after abandoning the dynamic zero epidemic control.

By averaging the crude mortality rate for the corresponding months from 2016 to 2020 to reduce the impact of random fluctuations, the normal mortality rate of each of the five months under the impact of the epidemic tsunami can be estimated, and the estimated normal mortality rate can be obtained
by subtracting the estimated normal mortality rate from the mortality data corresponding to the corresponding five months in 2022.
The difference in the first month was not large, and the excess mortality rate in the next four months was 0.
152 ‰, 0.
334 ‰, 0.
178 ‰, and 0.
168 ‰, respectively, and the cumulative excess mortality rate was 0.
832 ‰
.
It can be calculated that if we abandon the policy of dynamic zero, the cumulative excess death will be 1.
176 million under the impact of the epidemic tsunami, of which 546,000
are directly caused by the new crown.
The difference between the two is 630,000, which is the indirect death toll
caused by the epidemic.

How to understand the indirect number of deaths? After the abandonment of control, the number of infected people increased exponentially under the impact of the epidemic tsunami, and a large number of patients flooded into hospitals, which inevitably led to medical runs, resulting in difficulties
for people infected with the new crown and patients with other diseases to seek medical treatment.
Indirect deaths are understood as deaths caused by medical runs, including additional deaths
caused by COVID but not hospitalization or other problems due to medical resource constraints.

In short, taking the practice of Taiwan as a window to observe our abandonment of dynamic zero, it can be speculated that if we abandon epidemic control, about 546,000 people will die directly and 630,000
indirectly under the impact of the epidemic infection tsunami.
The cumulative excess death rate is 1.
176 million
.
For a total population of 1.
41 billion, this corresponds to roughly 1 death per 1,200 people
.
Then it becomes normal, and about 2,300 people will die every day
.

It should be pointed out that this is the result of analogous analysis based on the data of a wide range of practices obtained from the real abandonment of
epidemic control in Taiwan.
Considering the per capita economic level, per capita medical resources and health awareness level in Taiwan, the prediction results here are conservative, and the consequences of our choice to lie flat should be worse than the predicted results
.