How to deal with the long holiday market in feed enterprises

Introduction: in order to stimulate domestic consumption demand and economic growth, since 2000, the state has implemented the "May 1st", "11th" and spring festival long holiday system, which has now entered its sixth year After the analysis and research, the author found that the long holiday had a great impact on the domestic futures market, forming a "long holiday market" with Chinese characteristics In view of this, the author puts forward some immature countermeasures to encourage with the majority of investors The author believes that the long holiday market in China has the following three characteristics: first, the market price fluctuates violently before and after the long holiday, the difficulty of risk control increases, the futures trading has the characteristics of continuity, the information of the market responds quickly, and the risk can be released, transferred and dispersed in time However, the long holiday system destroys the above characteristics of futures trading, resulting in the temporary interruption of investment time and the loss of linkage with the international market The occurrence of economic events or policies has its variability and uncertainty Futures prices will respond to market information in advance or behind, resulting in the accumulation and concentration of risks, leading to relatively violent price fluctuations in the pre holiday or post holiday market, and abnormal market conditions such as rise and fall stop This kind of situation has been more prominent since 2004, and the risk control of the whole market is more difficult The futures exchange and the futures brokerage company will generally take measures such as increasing the margin of futures trading before the holiday to prevent the possible risks in the market 2 The long holiday causes the futures market to reduce its position, reduce its volume, reduce its liquidity and slow down or expand its price fluctuation Before and after the long holiday, the market generally shows the characteristics of reduction of position, reduction of volume and decrease of liquidity However, the market tends to two extremes, i.e consolidation of cowhide, stagnant water or violent fluctuation There are several such periodic phenomena in the domestic market every year According to the statistics of the author, in the week before the 15 long holidays, the copper market has been reduced 12 times, ranging from 8000 to 30000, basically maintaining around 20000, and the market can basically return to normal within one to two weeks after the long holidays Before the long holiday, investors tend to close their positions to avoid risks; after the long holiday, investors fail to return to the market in time, resulting in reduced market liquidity and trading volume The price fluctuation before the holiday slows down, while the price fluctuation after the holiday is relatively severe From the perspective of varieties, the higher the degree of marketization, the closer the relationship with the international market, and the more mature the futures varieties are, the greater the risks and opportunities caused by the holiday trading interruption, such as copper, soybean, soybean meal and other varieties, while the risks of wheat, aluminum, natural rubber and new varieties such as cotton, fuel oil, corn and other varieties are relatively small III The difficulty of investors' actual operation and risk control is increased Before and after the leave, the market liquidity will be reduced, the uncertainty of price fluctuation will be increased, the trading margin will be increased, the short-term market opportunities will be significantly reduced, the market may occur in advance or behind, investors are not easy to grasp the time and so on, which makes the actual operation and risk control of the majority of investors significantly more difficult Investors hesitate in positions and positions reduction, make hard choices in the long and short direction, and balance risks and benefits - it's really not easy to control risks effectively and hope not to miss the opportunity to get rich profits So, how should we deal with the unique long holiday market in China's futures market? The author puts forward some immature suggestions here First, rational position reduction, risk control as an investor in the futures market, risk control should always be put in the first place Throughout the year, there are a lot of market opportunities Investors, especially the majority of retail investors, do not need to invest their funds in the long holiday market similar to gambling Before the holiday, they should rationally reduce their positions, light their positions and avoid full positions and festivals, so as to avoid great happiness and loss of life 2 Strengthen fundamental analysis, stick to long-term positions, and eliminate short-term adverse positions Some investors think that reducing or exiting the market before holiday is a more passive, passive and conservative operation method, but the higher the risk, the greater the income Is there a better way than reducing or exiting the market? From the market in recent years, the long holiday only temporarily interrupted the market, but it will not change the existing fundamentals of the market After the long holiday, the market trend will continue in most cases Therefore, the risk of conforming to the trend position is relatively small, and the probability of winning is relatively large In the oscillatory market, position is of little significance It is mainly to guard against the change of the market after the fake, and evolve into the trend market Arbitrage position is one of the methods In the trend market, the market may be in different stages such as breakthrough, relay, climax and end, and investors should control the position size according to different stages In addition, the current information disclosure system has been relatively transparent and regular Investors should make corresponding estimates on the possible impact of the introduction of important economic indicators, economic conferences, reports on the supply and demand of agricultural products, etc according to the prior arrangement of holiday information disclosure Third, try to reduce short-term transactions and take a full rest of the long holiday to bring investors not all troubles, it is likely to be a turning point Before and after the holiday, the liquidity of the market is relatively low Investors should try to reduce short-term transactions and transaction costs During the holiday, when you have a full rest, you should carefully summarize the market situation and your investment situation in the previous period, retain the successful experience, learn from the failure, pay close attention to some major changes in the domestic and foreign markets during the holiday, and make a more thorough plan for the investment after the holiday For futures investors, the more prepared they are, the more likely they are to make a profit I believe that with the above-mentioned understanding and preparation, you will be able to face and handle the coming Spring Festival holiday with ease and enjoy a detailed, happy and safe spring festival