How to deal with cyclical fluctuations in pig provinces Sichuan Pig Breeding Survey

Sichuan is a major pig production province in China and a national strategic guarantee base
for high-quality commercial pigs.
In 2021, Sichuan produced 63.
148 million pigs, an increase of 7.
004 million heads over the previous year, an increase of 12.
5%, and the annual output ranked first
in the country.
Since the beginning of this year, the adjustment of pig prices has had a continuous impact on
China's pig production.
In the face of the recent bottoming out of the pig price market, how do Sichuan farmers and pig breeding enterprises view it? What are the new trends in industrial development? fq3 China Feed Industry Information Network - Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Pigs are agricultural and sideline products second only to grain in importance, one end connected to consumers and the other to farmers
.
As the largest province in the country's pig breeding, Sichuan has calmly coped with cyclical fluctuations in recent years, taken multiple measures to stabilize production and supply, and steadily laid out industrial transformation
.
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In the first half of this year, Sichuan pigs out of the pen 31.
398 million heads, an increase of 7.
2% year-on-year, the average price of 14.
7 yuan / kg, the overall price showed a V-shaped trend, pig breeding into a small profit space
.
In July, Sichuan held a special meeting to study the stable production and supply of pigs, pointing out that in the first half of this year, the epidemic of African swine fever in Sichuan was well controlled, the number of sows that could breed was in a reasonable range, and the recovery of pig prices had ended the loss of
the industry.
Overall, although the short-term price still fluctuates, the supply of the Sichuan pig market is guaranteed, and it is expected to complete the annual target task
of pig production.
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Adjust the mentality to fight a "protracted war" fq3 China feed industry information network - based on feed, serve animal husbandry

On March 6, 2021, Yuan Cheng (pseudonym), general manager of an agricultural co.
, LTD.
in Yanting County, Mianyang City, officially started operation
of the first batch of 5,000 piglets in four rounds, and he and his friends and 3 friends jointly invested more than 12 million yuan to build a pig farm.
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"My initial expectation was 3 to 5 years, now it may take 7 to 8 years
.
The market has high and low, as long as it is adhered to for a long time, there will definitely be a return
.
Yuan Cheng said that the previous decline in pig prices had a great impact on the production and operation of enterprises, and in the face of cyclical fluctuations, he adjusted his psychological expectations and was ready to
"fight a protracted war".
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At the end of 2019, Yuan Cheng, who was nearly 60 years old, responded to the call of his hometown Yanting County and returned to his hometown to develop aquaculture
.
In November of that year, Yanting County and New Hope Liuhe Co.
, Ltd.
signed the "1.
5 million pigs whole industry chain base project investment cooperation agreement"
.
Yanting County is a large county for pig transfer in the country, and relevant data show that in terms of pig scale breeding, Yanting County has matched more than 3,000 mu of construction land, invested more than 80 million yuan in project support funds, built and put into operation 143 standardized scale farms, and produced more than
800,000 pigs per year.
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Some farmers are ready to "fight a protracted war", while some farmers have been playing
back and forth in the "protracted war".
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This year is the 40th year of Shuai Anlun, head of the Lingfeng Breeding Professional Cooperative in Shuangliu District, Chengdu, and with his analysis and prediction of pig market prices over the years, the recent pig price trend is bullish
.
"At present, the price of wool pigs is about 23 yuan / kg, from the early corn, soybean meal price increase trend, feed costs have risen, the price of wool pigs is expected to rise to 30 yuan / kg
.
" Pigs out of the pen are measured according to 120 kg / head, each pig can earn about 500 yuan, and there is still some room
for growth in the later stage.
Shuai Anlun believes that the current round of pig price increases is related
to the low market prices in the early stage, the lack of confidence of breeding owners, the reduction of pig production capacity and the recent rapid recovery of consumption.
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In the eyes of most first-line farmers, the current round of rising market is a rebound rather than a reversal, and the wait-and-see mood is still relatively strong
.
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"Recently, many farmers want me to buy fertile sows, but when I find the seller, the farmers often say that they will wait and see
.
" Qi Yongjun, general manager of Mianyang Hope Feed Branch of New Hope Liuhe Co.
, Ltd.
, said that because he could not bear the losses caused by the last round of market decline, nearly 30% of retail investors in northern Sichuan chose to reduce their amount, and some people simply chose to withdraw from the pig breeding industry
.
With the emergence of a new round of rising market, some retail investors began to inquire about the price of gilts and had plans to
make up the fence.
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In Sichuan, the mentality of many farmers has changed from the former "gambling market" to the current "fighting a protracted war", which just shows that after several rounds of pig cycle "baptism", people have become more objective and rational
.
During the interview, many farmers said that today is different from the past, entering the pig industry should be fully prepared, in the experience of climbing over the "pain period" to be stable and determined, not because of the price rise and blindly supplement the column caused by excess production, nor because of short-term losses and rapid departure from the market caused by losses
.
More importantly, the trend of large-scale aquaculture in Sichuan is becoming more and more obvious, which may become a good medicine
to avoid the risk of price fluctuations.
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Large-scale breeding is the trend fq3 China feed industry information network - based on feed, serve animal husbandry

"Last year I raised more than 70 pigs with my friends, and now there are only 12 left, and retail investors are under a lot of pressure to deal with epidemics, price fluctuations, rising costs and other issues, I thought that raising pigs could make money, but now I find that this is a worrying job
.
" Chen Ming (pseudonym) is a feed distributor in Sangzao Town, Anzhou District, Mianyang City, and a farmer with more than 10 years of experience
.
According to his observation, the free-range farmers in Sangzao Town and nearby villages and towns have basically "washed their feet and gone ashore.
"
.
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Compared with Chen Ming, Tao Gang (pseudonym), the head of a pig breeding co.
, LTD.
in Yanting County, is more
calm.
He signed a surrogate maintenance contract with New Hope Roku and Yanting Base, and this year is the third year
of cooperation between the two sides.
In Tao Gang's view, for a company with an annual output of 10,000 pigs, once African swine fever occurs, there is no "backer" behind it will be a fatal blow
.
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"What reassures me the most is that New Hope Liuhe has established a well-established epidemic monitoring laboratory in Yanting County, and every day a special person goes to the farm to sample and check the relevant situation, and the results can be produced about two hours after the data is sent for testing, and the response speed to the epidemic is very fast
.
" Tao Gang said that in addition to the epidemic prevention mechanism in place, New Hope Six and after each batch of pigs out of the barn will pay the maintenance fee according to the price of more than 200 yuan per pig, there are enterprises at the bottom, their hearts are solid
.
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In the view of Su Xuewen, deputy director of the Meishan Municipal Bureau of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, large-scale breeding is the trend of the times
.
"The lack of resistance of small and medium-sized farmers to market risks is an objective problem, which is also the main reason why
Meishan has continued to promote large-scale aquaculture in recent years to improve quality and expand the area.
" At present, the proportion of large-scale breeding in Meishan Has reached more than 60%, and there are more than 900 large-scale pig farms
.
Su Xuewen introduced that Meishan adheres to the principle of "taking the big belt with the small" to strengthen the main body, widely promotes the "company + farmer" foster care model, and the leading enterprises uphold the principle of "helping farmers increase income", and the settlement of the maintenance fee is not affected by the market situation, and is only linked to
the breeding results.
"In the case of a general loss of 500 yuan per pig in the early stage, the average settlement fee of the household head is more than 130 yuan
.
" fq3 China Feed Industry Information Network - Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

In June this year, the data released by the Meishan Survey Team of the National Bureau of Statistics showed that Meishan City can breed 144,800 sows, which is in the green area
of pig production capacity regulation.
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On a mountain col in Dingtang Village, Songjiang Town, Dongpo District, Meishan City, rows of circles with blue-roofed white facades are lined up in a particularly striking manner
.
This is the location
of the only national pig core breeding farm in Meishan City, Wanjiahao Songjiang Pig Farm.
The breeding pig farm is built in accordance with the layout of 7 stages of modern pig production, with more than 2,800 purebred pigs in the existing pen, providing 30,000 high-quality breeding pigs and 50,000 commercial pigs per year
.
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Large-scale aquaculture enterprises have obvious advantages in coping with market fluctuations
.
"The company adjusted the structure of the pig herd during the trough period, eliminating sows with low production capacity and supplementing high-quality and high-yield sows to improve production efficiency and reduce costs
.
" In addition, some weaned piglets were sold in advance to lock in the loss amount, and the weight of the barn was reduced to reduce the consumption of feed to reduce the loss
.
When it comes to how to deal with the pig cycle, Wu Rui, manager of Sichuan Meishan Wanjiahao Breeding Pig Breeding Co.
, Ltd.
, is very experienced
.
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The Sichuan Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs recently issued the "Sichuan Province "Fourteenth Five-Year" Pig Industry Development Promotion Plan" mentioned that by the end of 2020, Sichuan Province has more than 14,000 pig farms with an annual output of more than 500 pigs, and the proportion of large-scale breeding has exceeded 50%, which is a significant increase of more than 20 percentage points over the end of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, and large-scale breeding has become the main form of pig breeding in Sichuan, and the foundation of Sichuan as a national high-quality commodity pig strategic guarantee base has been further consolidated
。 According to the plan, by 2025, Sichuan will cultivate and introduce 20 pig industrialization leading enterprises with an output value of 1 billion yuan and 5 with an output value of 5 billion yuan, with a breeding scale rate of more than
65%.
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Stable policy to promote industrial development fq3 China feed industry information network - based on feed, service animal husbandry

Stable pork prices are related to both pig production and people's lives
.
However, pig breeding is a highly market-oriented industry, high yield is not the norm, and small profits or losses occur from time to time
.
Especially when the industry encounters external shocks, timely policy support for land use, environmental protection, finance, finance and insurance is a positive guide to market expectations, and it is also a "reassuring pill"
for the development of the industry.
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Yuan Cheng told reporters that with the help of New Hope Liuhe' matchmaking, the company borrowed more than 3 million yuan from the bank to pay the deposit for maintenance and build infrastructure, with an interest rate of 4.
6%.

If you find a bank loan yourself, the interest rate will certainly not be lower than 5%.

Shuai Anlun believes that the pig breeding insurance premium subsidy is a visible benefit, and after the government gives each pig a subsidy of more than 40 yuan, he only needs to pay more than 10 yuan
.
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Sichuan has superior geographical and topographical conditions, has always been a key area for pig raising, and has also introduced a number of policies
to support pig production.
Combined with its own resource endowments and the overall urban and rural development plan during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Sichuan plans to build 100 high-quality commercial pig strategic guarantee base counties to carry out demonstrations of advantageous pig industry development; Cultivate new varieties of "Sichuan lineage" (supporting lines) to improve the generosity rate of core species; At the same time, encourage the introduction of excellent breeding pigs and broaden the genetic foundation of Sichuan breeding pigs; Encourage the construction of specialized patrilineal farms to change the situation that Sichuan's core breeding pigs have long been dependent on foreign countries
.
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The introduction of policies should be continuous, and at the same time need to be targeted
.
At present, the cost of pig breeding continues to rise, and the pressure of disease prevention and control still exists
.
In the course of the interview, many farmers mentioned the difficulty of loans
.
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"All mortgages involve the confirmation of rights, and the confirmation of rights requires the registration of the premises as a whole, while most of the land on the farm is transferred and cannot be confirmed, which in turn leads to the inability to confirm the rights
of the enclosures, facilities and equipment on the land.
" The person in charge of a large aquaculture enterprise suggested that the use of separate real estate rights confirmation, as long as the enterprise obtains the approval of agricultural land for facilities, it is regarded as the source of land is legal, and the above-ground buildings can be confirmed and certified, thereby solving the problem of large financing loans
.
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According to the reporter's understanding, Sichuan grasps the stability of production and supply on the one hand, and the high-quality development
of the industry on the other hand.
In the next step, Sichuan will also promote the construction of a big data platform for the pig industry, actively participate in the construction of the Sichuan-Chongqing pig big data center, integrate data resources such as pig production, trading, slaughtering, and processing, and realize the modernization of
industrial information.
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