How to avoid the ups and downs of pig industry

Introduction: in November, the market price of live pigs in Zhejiang Province experienced the biggest drop in recent years: among them, the price per kilogram of live pigs to be slaughtered fell by more than 1 yuan, or more than 10%, compared with that in October The majority of farmers in the early pig industry after the red fire, do not feel bursts of chill: pig industry "winter" so soon? Why does pig price fall? What will happen next? How to deal with it? "Winter" will come sooner or later, but now it is not pointed out by experts that the domestic pig market price has been showing regular periodic changes, which is about three years The latest round of pig market price rise started in May and June last year The market price of Sanyuan pig went up all the way from 6 yuan per kilogram at that time to the highest point in mid October this year, 10.8 yuan per kilogram, lasting for 18 months Therefore, from the perspective of time cycle, the price of pig is also at the time of adjustment Feed price falling is the direct factor that leads to pig price falling Affected by the fall of grain prices, feed prices have fallen sharply in the near future The price of soybean meal has dropped from 3500 yuan per ton, the highest point this year, to about 2500 yuan now The fall of feed price determines the decrease of pig raising cost, which leads to the decrease of pig price But the decisive factor of the decline of pig price is the change of market supply and demand Due to the high market price of pigs in the early stage and the good benefits of pig raising, the farmers have expanded production, and the number of pigs on hand and on the market has increased, resulting in short-term oversupply As far as our province is concerned, at the end of September, 4.579 million pigs were put on the stock of large-scale farmers with more than 50 pigs, an increase of 11.3% over the same period of last year, and 6.6713 million pigs were put on the stock, an increase of 8.2% over the same period of last year Many owners of large-scale pig farms said that the drop in pig prices was expected, but the drop in pig prices exceeded their expectations According to Chen Xiulin, manager of Xiaoshan Yongwang breeding Co., Ltd., it is normal for the price to fall and the price of pigs can't rise all the time; however, in less than one month, the price of pigs per kilogram dropped from 10.8 yuan at the highest to 9.2 yuan at the lowest, which is rare in recent years Expert analysis, the recent pig prices fell sharply, including irrational factors Many farmers are afraid of the sharp drop of pig market in the past As soon as the price of pigs falls, they are eager to sell the pigs on hand, which further depresses the price of pigs In fact, after a period of panic selling, the market price of pigs has stabilized recently Although the price of pigs has fallen, the current price level is acceptable for most large-scale farmers Chen said that even at a price of 9.2 yuan per kilogram, each pig still has a benefit of about 50 yuan This is good for scale pig farms The question is, can such a price level be maintained? According to the analysis of the national livestock work conference held in Anhui Province in mid November, the market price of pigs will further fall, and the bottom will appear around March next year Therefore, next spring may be the real difficult period for pig industry, and the majority of farmers will also face the real market test It is impossible for pig prices to fall sharply People who have been engaged in pig industry for a long time are deeply impressed by the sharp drop of pig market prices in 1998: in one year, the price of pigs per kilogram dropped from a peak of more than 10 yuan to a bottom of about 6 yuan, and many farmers lost their lives So, this time, will the price of pigs fall again? Expert analysis, pig prices may continue to fall, but it is unlikely to appear in 1998, such a slump Feed price is the most important factor to determine the cost of pig raising, and also one of the important factors to affect the price of pig At present, the price of 2500 yuan per ton of soybean meal is close to the price of 2350 yuan before the start of the rising grain price in September last year, and it is unlikely to fall further In fact, at the current price level, there has been a phenomenon of hoarding of feed, and the price has also tended to be stable, which is one of the factors restricting the price of pigs from falling sharply The most important factor determining the price of pigs is market supply and demand According to Dai Xuming, deputy director of the Provincial Animal Husbandry Bureau, the domestic pig industry is currently undergoing a structural adjustment process This process is similar to the situation of the structural adjustment of the pig industry in our province in the early 1990s That is to say, the pig industry has developed from thousands of households to large-scale pig industry, and the decrease of pig industry in thousands of households is faster than the development of large-scale pig industry In this period of transformation, the total production of pigs is not likely to increase significantly In addition, with the improvement of people's living standards, meat consumption is growing, especially the transfer of the original pig farmers to the secondary and tertiary industries, from the original "production of pork" to "purchase of pork", which further enlarges the demand for meat In addition, in recent two years, the consumption of pork in the international market has increased, and the export of domestic pigs has increased Therefore, in the short term, there will be a situation of supply exceeding demand in the domestic pig market, but in a long period of time, the basic balance of supply and demand of pigs, or even a little more than supply, will not change fundamentally, which is the fundamental reason that determines that the price of pigs will not fall sharply According to the prediction of experts, according to the current feed cost, as long as the price does not fall below 8 yuan per kilogram, the farmers will not lose Next spring, no matter how the price of pigs will fall, it is unlikely to fall below 8 yuan There will be no large-scale loss for farmers Are farmers ready for the winter? In the face of the falling market, different farms take different countermeasures because of their different operating conditions Hangzhou Zhengxing animal husbandry Co., Ltd not only raises pigs, but also cows and Boer goats Ye Shusheng, the manager, said that he was ready to adjust the breeding structure In recent years, he has increased the number of pigs on the market "Take advantage of the current price, make money first." Chen Xiulin, the manager of Xiaoshan Yongwang breeding Co., Ltd., somewhat surprised me She said she plans to further expand the production capacity, expand a 50000 head pig farm, and increase the annual output of raw pigs to more than 100000 In the face of the author's doubts, Chen Xiulin explained that the larger the scale of pig farms, the stronger the ability to resist market risks, especially for large-scale professional pig farms like them, which have relatively stable customers, it is unlikely to increase or decrease the number of pig stocks due to market fluctuations In addition, the pig market is always changing periodically When the pig industry is at a low ebb, the cost of expansion is relatively low At this time, we should do a good job in capital construction and cultivate high-quality sows Once the next round of market comes, we can immediately expand the production scale and make better profits In view of the current pig market, experts from the provincial animal husbandry and Veterinary Bureau remind: farmers who are ready to develop pig breeding may as well slow down and see the market changes Large scale pig farms should do a good job in pig farm infrastructure and sow improvement in time, so as to prepare for the next round of market launch At the same time, we should strengthen management, strictly prevent the occurrence of epidemic diseases, advocate scientific pig breeding, reduce costs and improve efficiency Only in this way, can we deal with changes calmly.